Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Binghamton, NY

000 
WGUS71 KBGM 290031
FFSBGM
NYC107-290200-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
730 PM EST MON MAR 28 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 900 PM EST FOR EASTERN TIOGA
COUNTY...

AT 725 PM EST...TIOGA COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT ROUTE 96 NEAR 
OWEGO REMAINED CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING OF THE OWEGO CREEK. IN 
ADDITION...HALSEY VALLEY ROAD BETWEEN STRAIGHT CORNER ROAD AND 
COOKS ROAD IN THE TIOGA CENTER AREA WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. NEAR 
BERKSHIRE...PARSONS HILL ROAD BETWEEN WILSON CREEK ROAD AND WALKER 
FARM WAS ALSO CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. THERE WAS ALSO A MUDSLIDE 
REPORTED ON THORN HOLLOW ROAD. 

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO 
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TIOGA COUNTY. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO 
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING IN THE WARNING AREA. RUNOFF 
FROM RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY WAS COMBINING WITH SNOWMELT TO CAUSE THE 
FLOODING IN TIOGA COUNTY. 

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES THROUGH 
MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE SNOWMELT. THEREFORE EVEN AS THE 
RAIN SUBSIDES...STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AND 
FLOOD IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN TIOGA COUNTY UNTIL AT LEAST 9 PM EST. 

IF YOU ARE TRAVELING INTO THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING...BE 
ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AND WATCH OUT FOR FLOODED ROADWAYS AND DEBRIS. 
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

$$
NICOSIA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
248 PM EST MON MAR 28 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
TONIGHT...CLOSED 500 MB LOW TO TRACK E OFF MID MID ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH SFC LOW TRACK JUST TO THE N...WITH WEAK SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST.  GFS/ETA BOTH SUGGEST THAT BULK
OF PRECIP WILL FALL EAST OF I-81 OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ETA PUSHING
HEAVIEST PRECIP ALMOST OUT OF CWA.  RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SLIGHT PUSH
TO THE EAST ATTM...BUT ALSO SHOW HEAVY PRECIP CONTIUING TO DEVELOP
OVER S CNTRL PA ON NOSE OF DRY SLOT.  MID-LVL DEFORMATION/FG
FORECASTS SUPPORT ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN THIS AFT INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS ERN ZONES...WHICH MATCHES UP WITH CURRENT RADAR/SAT OBS.
THEREFORE...PLAN ON DROPPING THE FFA FOR FAR NWRN ZONES.  EXPECTING
RAIN TO CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT... TAPERING OFF TO SHRA AND ENDING
IN THE WEST...AND TAPER TO SHRA BY DAYBREAK IN THE EAST.

TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD COMBINE TO MIX OUT
SOME OF THE LL MOSITURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WILL ALSO LINGER CHC
POPS IN FAR ERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING.

TUE NIGHT...BUFKIT ETA PROFILES STILL INDICATING DRY AIR ABOVE LL
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS...THINKING THAT
PATCHY FOG IS A BETTER BET AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD.

WED...RIDGING SLIDES TO THE EAST...AND FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY...AS SOME MID-UPPER LVL WAA BEGINS.  EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MID LVL DECK BY DAYS END.  -CEMPA

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING
SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE ERN U.S. RIDGE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE ERN U.S. ON FRIDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN ON
FRI/SAT. THE AIR MAY BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A
TSTORM. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUN INTO MON AS AN UPPER
LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.  -JVA

&&

.AVIATION(28/18Z - 29/18Z)...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN/FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z-10Z,
WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR.  -JVA

&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ON THE NORTH BRANCH OF THE
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER FROM WAVERLY NORTH AND EAST. 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN IN THIS AREA SINCE LAST NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. 1/2 TO 3/4 BANKFUL IS ANTICIPATED ON
THE CHEMUNG...UPPER DELAWARE AND ALONG THE CREEKS OF THE FINGER
LAKES AS BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN. THE NEXT
BATCH OF RAIN WAS LIFTING NORTH THRU EASTERN PA W/ ANTHR 3/4 INCH TO
ONE INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS. SNOWMELT IS
PRESUMABLY SLOW GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. SMALL STREAMS
REMAIN AT RISK FOR FLOODING MAINLY FROM SYR-ELM AND IPT AND POINTS
EAST AND SOUTH.  -NICOSIA

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUE 5 PM NYZ009-036-037-044>066-
      055>057-062.
.PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUE 5 PM ALL NE PA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
346 AM EST MON MAR 28 2005

NYZ046-057-062-PAZ040-048-072-290845-
DELAWARE NY-NORTHERN WAYNE PA-OTSEGO NY-PIKE PA-SOUTHERN WAYNE PA-
SULLIVAN NY-
346 AM EST MON MAR 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. TEMPERATURES ARE
BEGINNING THE DAY BELOW FREEZING...SO EXPECT AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN
UNTIL MID MORNING. AFTER 9 AM TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE 32
DEGREES ENDING THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. A GENERAL 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES OF
STORM TOTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ALBWSWBGM AND ALBFFABGM FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE AN ABRUPT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. EXPECT RAIN
SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
FORMAL SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN THEIR REPORTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON.

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056-PAZ038-039-043-044-
047-290845-
BRADFORD PA-BROOME NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-
LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-MADISON NY-NORTHERN ONEIDA NY-ONONDAGA NY-
SCHUYLER NY-SENECA NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-SOUTHERN ONEIDA NY-
STEUBEN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-WYOMING PA-YATES NY-
346 AM EST MON MAR 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. A GENERAL 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES OF
STORM TOTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCT ALBFFABGM FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE AN ABRUPT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. EXPECT RAIN
SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
FORMAL SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN THEIR REPORTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON.

PADAVONA