Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
130 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005

.SHORT TERM...
UPDATED TO ADD FLOOD WATCH FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND SOME TRAINING HAS BEEN OCCURRING.
HOURLY RAINFALL ESTIMATES REACHING 1.5 INCH.

PREVIOUS DISC...IT STILL APPEARS THAT BEST CVRG FOR AFTN TSRA WOULD
BE OVER THE SRN TIER AND NE PA WHERE REMNANTS OF OUTFLOW BNDRY ARE
LIKELY TO BE, AND MDL INDICATIONS OF SOME LOW LVL CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTN. VERY MOIST W/PRECIPITABLE WATER NEARLY 200% ABV NORMAL, AND
WARM CLD DEPTHS NEAR OR >10K FT. MBE VECTORS SUGGEST POTNL FOR
FAIRLY SLOW MOVERS AND TRAINING. A FEW SVR PULSERS CANT BE RULED
OUT, BUT PTRN DOES NOT APPEAR FVRBL FOR AN ORGANIZED SVR EVENT WITH
NO APPARENT TRIGGER ALOFT TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING. XPCT SCT
ACTIVITY TO PERSIST TIL ARND MIDNIGHT BEFORE DSPTNG.

MORE OF THE SAME XPCTD ON SUNDAY AND WILL STICK WITH CHC POPS ALL
ZONES...NOT READY TO BUY INTO THE GFS SLN OF MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
WORKING INTO NE PA DURING THE DAY. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO
GO WITH THE WARMER FWCS WHICH HAVE OUTPERFORMED THE MAV AND SPCLY
THE MET GUIDANCE.

POTNLY INTERESTING SITN SHAPING UP FOR EARLY NXT WEEK WITH REMNANTS
OF ARLENE. PREFER THE GFS/UKMET SLN WHICH BRINGS THE MSTR ARND
THE RDG AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE FCST AREA IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.
CANADIAN TRACK SIMILAR BUT SLOWER BY ABOUT A DAY. NO CHGS TO XTNDD
AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE PREEPD HAS TO
SAY LATER THIS MRNG.

&&

.LONG RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO
THE NATIONS MID SECTION NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST BEFORE
SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING COOLER NWLY FLOW WITH CHCS FOR PRECIP THRU THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION (10/18Z - 11/18Z)...
A CONTINUATION OF THE CRNT WX PTRN WILL RESULT IN LITTLE DAY TO DAY
CHG IN THE AVIATION WX. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SEE
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS LOWERING CEILINGS AND
VISBY INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH SHORT PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER RAIN. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL SEE MVFR VISBY
WITH FOG AT MOST LOCATIONS. BKN CU WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY MVFR
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM.
.PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LACKAWANNA, LUZERNE, SOUTHERN WAYNE,
PIKE, AND WYOMING COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
435 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-120900-
BRADFORD PA-BROOME NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-DELAWARE NY-
LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-MADISON NY-NORTHERN ONEIDA NY-
NORTHERN WAYNE PA-ONONDAGA NY-OTSEGO NY-PIKE PA-SCHUYLER NY-
SENECA NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-SOUTHERN ONEIDA NY-SOUTHERN WAYNE PA-
STEUBEN NY-SULLIVAN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-
WYOMING PA-YATES NY-
435 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, MOST NUMEROUS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. SEE
PRODUCT ALBSPSBGM FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED, MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ASSISTANCE MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.