Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS La Crosse, WI

000 
WWUS53 KARX 071813
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
113 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2005

WIC053-071830-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-050907T1830Z/
JACKSON WI-
113 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT 
FOR EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY...

AT 112 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL EXTENDING FROM 22 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NEILLSVILLE TO 12 MILES NORTH OF TOMAH. THE SEVERE 
STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE IN RURAL AREAS AND WILL PASS NEAR BEAR BLUFF AND 
CITY POINT IN FAR EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY. 

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE
AND TELL THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4441 9066 4416 9066 4416 9044 4416 9031
      4442 9032

$$

SHEA

000 
WWUS53 KARX 071827
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
125 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2005

WIC053-071840-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-050907T1830Z/
JACKSON WI-
125 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY WILL 
EXPIRE AT 130 PM...

THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE ON
TIME.

THESE STORMS PRODUCED HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER NEAR MILLSTON.

LAT...LON 4441 9066 4416 9066 4416 9044 4416 9031
      4442 9032

$$

SHEA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
402 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2005

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

AT 4 AM...A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM IRON MOUNTAIN MICHIGAN
WEST SOUTHWEST TO AUSTIN MINNESOTA AND WEST TO SIOUX CITY IOWA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND
NORTH OF THIS FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE 850 MB COLD FRONT. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE SEPTEMBER 7TH 00Z MODELS DIFFER ON HOW SOUTH THIS
FRONT WILL GO. BOTH THE NGM AND NAM HAVE THIS FRONT MOVING AS FAR
SOUTH AS SOUTHERN IOWA. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS THE FRONT STALLING
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. CONSIDERING THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND
LOOKING AT THE WINDS ON THE PROFILERS THIS MORNING...I HAVE A VERY
HARD TIME BUYING THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO SOUTHERN IOWA. AS
A RESULT...I WENT MORE ALONG THE GFS FRONTAL POSITION FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE AS IMPRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...
I LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES JUST A BIT FOR TODAY.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
SHOW THAT SOME CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS IS PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG COUPLED JET LOCATED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE HAVING SOME FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS BY 00Z FRIDAY...SO I TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGTLY WEAKER
NAM AND NGM SOLUTIONS. WITH THE 0-6KM SHEAR RUNNING IN THE
30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE AND GOOD INSTABILITY BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IS
WHEN WILL THIS RIDGE BREAK DOWN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS THAT
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
THAT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF THE
DIFFERENCES IS A RESULT OF HOW THEY HANDLE OPHELIA.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

BOYNE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
511 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2005

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-081000-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
511 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER THE
AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...AND
MAINLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH ANY STORM COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL...
WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OUT OF THE PICTURE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME THE LOCATION
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT...BUT IT
DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. WITH INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE INCREASED IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS
DAYS. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY TODAY...BUT SPOTTERS
SHOULD BE AWARE THAT ANY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY BRIEFLY
PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL. A BETTER CHANCE OF SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL
COME THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

BINAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1213 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     HAIL             ALMA CENTER             44.44N 90.91W
09/07/2005  0.88 INCH        JACKSON            WI   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HIGH WIND ALSO REPORTED.

&&

SHEA