Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS La Crosse, WI

000 
WWUS53 KARX 300324
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1024 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

IAC065-300400-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-050630T0400Z/
FAYETTE IA-
1024 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR FAYETTE COUNTY...

AT 1024 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH AND PENNY SIZE
HAIL OVER HIGHWAY 93 AND COUNTY V 68...OR ABOUT 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF
OELWEIN. THE SEVERE STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...HAWKEYE AND MAYNARD AROUND
1030 PM CDT...FAYETTE AND ST. LUCAS AROUND 1035 PM CDT...ALBANY AND
WEST UNION AROUND 1040 PM CDT...ARLINGTON AND WADENA AROUND 1045 PM
CDT...CLERMONT AND ELGIN AROUND 1050 PM CDT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE
AND TELL THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4264 9208 4280 9208 4289 9209 4290 9207
      4306 9207 4308 9204 4308 9162 4265 9162

$$

SCHRECK

000 
WWUS53 KARX 300335
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1035 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

IAC065-300400-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-050630T0400Z/
FAYETTE IA-
1035 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR FAYETTE COUNTY...

AT 1035 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH AND PENNY SIZE
HAIL OVER HIGHWAY 93 AND COUNTY W 14...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WEST UNION. THE SEVERE STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...FAYETTE AND WEST UNION AROUND
1040 PM CDT...ALBANY AND COUNTY ROAD W 45 AND 187 AROUND 1045 PM
CDT...ARLINGTON AND WADENA AROUND 1050 PM CDT...MONTAUK HISTORIC SITE
AND HIGHWAYS 3 AND 187 AROUND 1055 PM CDT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE
AND TELL THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4264 9208 4280 9208 4289 9209 4290 9207
      4306 9207 4308 9204 4308 9162 4265 9162

$$

SCHRECK

000 
WWUS53 KARX 300338
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1037 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

IAC065-300400-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-050630T0400Z/
FAYETTE IA-
1037 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR FAYETTE COUNTY...

THE PUBLIC MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 61 MPH IN 1 MILE EAST OF SUMNER 
AT 1023 PM WITH WIND EQUIPMENT.

AT 1037 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH AND PENNY SIZE
HAIL 2 MILES WEST OF HIGHWAY 93 AND COUNTY W 14...OR ABOUT 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WEST UNION. THE SEVERE STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...FAYETTE AND WEST UNION AROUND
1045 PM CDT...ALBANY AND BRAINARD AROUND 1050 PM CDT...ARLINGTON AND
WADENA AROUND 1055 PM CDT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE
AND TELL THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4264 9208 4280 9208 4289 9209 4290 9207
      4306 9207 4308 9204 4308 9162 4265 9162

$$

SCHRECK

000 
WWUS53 KARX 300349
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1048 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

IAC065-300400-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-050630T0400Z/
FAYETTE IA-
1048 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR FAYETTE COUNTY...

A WIND GUST OF 38 MPH WAS MEASURED AT OELWEIN AIRPORT AT 1035 PM.

AT 1048 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH AND PENNY SIZE
HAIL OVER DONNAN...OR ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH OF WEST UNION. THE SEVERE
STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...BRAINARD AND COUNTY ROADS 3
AND W 45 AROUND 1055 PM CDT...ARLINGTON AND WADENA AROUND 1100 PM
CDT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE
AND TELL THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4264 9208 4280 9208 4289 9209 4290 9207
      4306 9207 4308 9204 4308 9162 4265 9162

$$

SCHRECK

000 
WWUS53 KARX 300358 RRA
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1058 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

IAC065-300408-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-050630T0400Z/
FAYETTE IA-
1058 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR FAYETTE COUNTY WILL BE 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

THE STRONGEST PART OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR FAYETTE COUNTY 
HAS EXPIRED. STORMS WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THOUGH BRINGING HEAVY 
RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 4264 9208 4280 9208 4289 9209 4290 9207
      4306 9207 4308 9204 4308 9162 4265 9162

$$

SHEA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
253 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THIS EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TWO SHORTWAVES
TROUGHS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN IOWA. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC
INDICATES LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA TO EASTERN IOWA. THIS IS RESPONSE TO LAPS 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS. LATEST 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE LOW
OVER EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM LOW INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS.

BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INTO FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 12Z GFS HAS A
SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. BOTH NAM AND GFS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT
SURFACE FEATURES AND MOISTURE LEVELS PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WILL TAKE A BLEND THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONTS WITH RUC40 INDICATING SURFACE BASE CAPE OF 3000-3500 J/KG
ACROSS FORECAST AREA BY 03Z. RUC40 INDICATING 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-45
KNOTS THIS EVENING AND 0-3KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KNOTS ACROSS FORECAST
AREA. FEEL SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. RUC40 INDICATES 0-
1KM SHEAR OF 35 KNOTS ACROSS FORECAST AREA BY 03Z AND 0-1KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY OF 250-325 M2/S2. THINKING BEST TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE ALONG WARM FRONT AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK EAST INTO FORECAST AREA BY 06Z.
EXPECT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG COLD
FRONT. LINE WILL BECOME LINEAR ALONG FRONT...WITH MAIN THREAT TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS. NAM INDICATES 3-6KM SHEAR TO BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
AND 700-500MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 16 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 6Z ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SEVERE WORDING IN GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN BY 18Z THURSDAY. UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS
ALLOWS FOR COLD POOL TO BE OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BOTH 12Z GFS AND NAM INDICATE TQ INDEX OF
15 OR GREATER OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 00Z FRIDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND COLD FRONT...WITH NAM INDICATING 850MB TEMPERATURES
OF AROUND PLUS TWELVE DEGREES ACROSS FORECAST AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z SATURDAY.
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY...WITH NAM INDICATING 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 6 TO 10
DEGREES CELSIUS OVER FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. TRENDED FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.

UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BY 18Z
SATURDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATING GOOD 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS INTO WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN
WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BOTH
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH PERIOD. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES
IN MODELS ARE THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
IN ZONAL FLOW. DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF MODELS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH PERIOD. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE NEXT
WEEK...AS BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES 15
TO 18 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS FORECAST AREA.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

DTJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
448 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-301100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
448 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE
UNSTABLE...OTHER PARAMETERS ARE LIMITING THE GROWTH OF THESE STORMS
SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE EARLY EVENING IS
RELATIVELY LOW.

A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER TRIGGER LATER THIS EVENING. STORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR THIS
FRONT...ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA STATE BORDER.
THESE STORMS WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AFTER 7 PM
AND MAY FORM A SQUALL LINE ADVANCING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA BETWEEN 8 PM AND 10 PM...AND
COULD DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THIS SAME TIME
FRAME. STORMS WOULD REACH WESTERN WISCONSIN AROUND 10 PM AND MOVE
OUT OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 1 AM. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH THIS LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BACK TO THE REGION SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
SURFACE HIGH...AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA DURING THE
MID EVENING TIME FRAME...AND MAY ALSO BE NEEDED IN NORTHEAST IOWA IF
STORMS DEVELOP SOUTHWARD. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IN WISCONSIN WOULD BE
DURING THE LATE EVENING. A WATCH IS LIKELY EARLY THIS EVENING SO BE
ALERT TO ACTIVATE WHEN THAT HAPPENS.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A CONFERENCE CALL WAS HELD EARLIER TODAY. NO ADDITIONAL CALLS ARE
SCHEDULED AT THIS TIME.

SHEA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
803 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032-033-041-300800-
BUFFALO-DODGE-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-LA CROSSE-MOWER-OLMSTED-TREMPEALEAU-
WABASHA-WINONA

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 557 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MINNESOTA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA

DODGE                 FILLMORE              HOUSTON
MOWER                 OLMSTED               WABASHA
WINONA

IN WISCONSIN THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN

BUFFALO               LA CROSSE             TREMPEALEAU

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AUSTIN...CALEDONIA...DODGE CENTER...
INDEPENDENCE...LA CROSSE...ONALASKA...ROCHESTER...RUSHFORD...
WABASHA AND WINONA.

SHEA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
915 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-WIZ053>055-061-300800-
ALLAMAKEE-CHICKASAW-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOWARD-MITCH
ELL-RICHLAND-VERNON-WINNESHIEK

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
558 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN IOWA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA

FLOYD                 MITCHELL

IN NORTHEAST IOWA

ALLAMAKEE             CHICKASAW             CLAYTON
FAYETTE               HOWARD                WINNESHIEK

IN WISCONSIN THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN

CRAWFORD              GRANT                 RICHLAND
VERNON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CHARLES CITY...CRESCO...DECORAH...
ELKADER...NEW HAMPTON...OELWEIN...OSAGE...PLATTEVILLE...
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...VIROQUA AND WAUKON.

MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032-033-041-300800-
BUFFALO-DODGE-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-LA CROSSE-MOWER-OLMSTED-TREMPEALEAU-
WABASHA-WINONA

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 557 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 3 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MINNESOTA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA

DODGE                 FILLMORE              HOUSTON
MOWER                 OLMSTED               WABASHA
WINONA

IN WISCONSIN THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN

BUFFALO               LA CROSSE             TREMPEALEAU

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AUSTIN...CALEDONIA...DODGE CENTER...
INDEPENDENCE...LA CROSSE...ONALASKA...ROCHESTER...RUSHFORD...
WABASHA AND WINONA.

SHEA