Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS La Crosse, WI

000 
WWUS53 KARX 080222
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
921 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

WIC053-121-080300-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-050608T0300Z/
JACKSON WI-TREMPEALEAU WI-
921 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR JACKSON AND TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES...

AT 920 PM...QUARTER SIZE WAS REPORTED IN PIGEON FALLS IN TREMPEALEAU 
COUNTY AS RELAYED THROUGH THE COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT.

AT 921 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL EXTENDING FROM 17
MILES NORTHEAST OF WHITEHALL TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ARCADIA. THE
SEVERE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR ETTRICK AND HIXTON AROUND 935 
PM...HEGG AND I 94 EXIT 105 AROUND 940 PM...FRANKLIN AND MERRILLAN 
AROUND 945 PM...AND DISCO AROUND 950 PM.

REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR
NO ADVANCED WARNING.

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4459 9123 4444 9132 4433 9151 4408 9155
      4418 9057 4442 9033 4441 9081 4449 9080
      4451 9093 4460 9092

$$

SHEA

000 
WWUS53 KARX 080228
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
927 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

WIC053-121-080300-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-050608T0300Z/
JACKSON WI-TREMPEALEAU WI-
927 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR JACKSON AND TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES...

AT 925 PM...QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN WHITEHALL.

THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM ARCADIA
THROUGH WHITEHALL INTO NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY. IF YOU LIVE
IN MERRILLAN...BLAIR AND TAYLOR...EXPECT LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT 30 
MINUTES.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. REMEMBER THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN 
PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE.

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR 
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4459 9123 4444 9132 4433 9151 4408 9155
      4418 9057 4442 9033 4441 9081 4449 9080
      4451 9093 4460 9092

$$

SHEA

000 
WWUS53 KARX 080242
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
942 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

WIC053-121-080300-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-050608T0300Z/
JACKSON WI-TREMPEALEAU WI-
942 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR JACKSON AND TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES...

AT 940 PM...THE JACKSON COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT REPORTED HEAVY 
RAIN AT ALMA CENTER. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY FALLING ALONG INTERSTATE 
94 BETWEEN OSSEO AND BLACK RIVER FALLS...AS WELL AS IN NORTHFIELD.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT MERRILLAN...ALMA CENTER...TAYLOR AND BLAIR 
OVER THE NEXT 15 MINUTES.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. REMEMBER THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN 
PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE.

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR 
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4459 9123 4444 9132 4433 9151 4408 9155
      4418 9057 4442 9033 4441 9081 4449 9080
      4451 9093 4460 9092

$$

SHEA

000 
WWUS53 KARX 080306
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1004 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

WIC121-080315-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-050608T0300Z/
TREMPEALEAU WI-
1004 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR TREMPEALEAU COUNTY HAS 
EXPIRED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR TREMPEALEAU COUNTY HAS EXPIRED.

A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR JACKSON COUNTY FOR 
A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR 
NO ADVANCED WARNING. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 
MIDNIGHT.

LAT...LON 4459 9123 4444 9132 4433 9151 4408 9155
      4418 9057 4442 9033 4441 9081 4449 9080
      4451 9093 4460 9092

$$

SHEA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
205 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN FOCUSED ON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
NEXT FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA.
WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL WI THROUGH SOUTHERN MN TO THE LOW.
TONGUE OF 70F DEW POINTS STRETCHED FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MN.
REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING MCS THAT PRODUCED HAIL IN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL WI.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
DATA FROM NEAR KLSE-KMSP. NEW STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF KLSE. LAPS INDICATED SBCAPES HAVE BEEN BUILDING
AND WERE 3000-4000 J/KG AS A RESULT OF SUNSHINE RETURNING IN WAKE OF
MORNING CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES PIN-
WHEELING AROUND IT. SHORT WAVE OF INTEREST ADVANCING INTO WYOMING.

12Z 07JUN05 MODELS WERE SIMILAR WITH MASS FIELDS AND CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST MCS ACTIVITY CONTINUES NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. GFS AND NAM STILL HAD DIFFERENCES WHERE MCS WILL TRACK...
THUS RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES ON LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF QPF.
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THAT NAM SHOULD BE BEST MODEL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THEN CONFIDENCE LOW ON EXACT DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES AND
ANY AREAS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...UNCERTAINTY OF POSITION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INCREASE
THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CONVECTION ANTICIPATED TO INITIATE BETWEEN 21Z-00Z
THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI AND ALSO ALONG
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HIGHEST WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 35KTS-40KTS
SITUATED IN NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXTREME
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AREAWIDE WITH SBCAPES REACHING AS HIGH AS 4000
J/KG. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN PROXIMITY TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND/OR FRONT.

IN ADDITION...NOCTURNAL 850MB JET OF 50KTS WILL INTERCEPT THE FRONT.
CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF SLOW MOVING AND/OR BACK
BUILDING PROPAGATION OF STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN APPEAR
TO HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR REPEATING OVER SAME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WI...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES POOL
NEAR THE FRONT. 3HRLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN 2.5-3.5 INCHES...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THERE WERE LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THUS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL VIABLE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS BASED ON LARGE VALUES OF INSTABILITY AND
MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES. NUDGED RAIN
PROBABILITIES UPWARD ON WEDNESDAY BASED ON THEN NAM MODELS CONSISTENT
SIGNAL OF MCS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...OPTED TO REISSUE
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO CONTINUE HEIGHTENED AWARENESS FOR POTENTIAL OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS CORROBORATED BY 00Z 07JUN05 GFSLR AND ECMWF WHICH INDICATED
STORM TRACK ACROSS THE CONUS WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THEREFORE...CURRENT DATA BASE APPEARS REASONABLE WITH
RESPECT TO BROAD BRUSH TECHNIQUE OF RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

THOMPSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
608 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-WIZ054-055-061-081100-
ALLAMAKEE-CHICKASAW-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOWARD-
MITCHELL-RICHLAND-WINNESHIEK-
608 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE I-90 THIS
EVENING. DURING THE EARLY EVENING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT AREA. AS THE EVENING CONTINUES...AND A COMPLEX
OF ORGANIZED STORMS ESTABLISHES ITSELF...THE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRY
TO SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN. THEREFORE...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MID TO LATE
EVENING...OR AFTER ROUGHLY 9 PM. THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IS
STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

A COMPLEX OF STORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOWARD MORNING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITIES WILL BE WEAKER...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...AMPLE MOISTURE...STRONG
INSTABILITIES AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND WITH THE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS...
SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE LEVELS. WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT...ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THE WINDS ALOFT WILL
LIKELY FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE STORMS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION TO THESE THREATS...FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN AS REPEATED
RAINS FALL ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING...
AFTER 9 PM...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053-081100-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLARK-DODGE-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-WABASHA-WINONA-
608 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AFTER 9
PM...THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE THEIR SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...BUT THE FLOOD THREAT MAY BE MORE INCREASED. ALTHOUGH SOILS
ARE DRY...IF LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE RECEIVED /OVER 4 INCHES/
FLOODING COULD BE A THREAT.

A COMPLEX OF STORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY MOVE INTO THE
AREA TOWARD MORNING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITIES WILL BE WEAKER...SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...AMPLE MOISTURE...STRONG
INSTABILITIES AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND WITH THE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS...
SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE LEVELS. WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT...ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THE WINDS ALOFT WILL
LIKELY FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE STORMS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION TO THESE THREATS...FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN AS REPEATED
RAINS FALL ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
STORMS DEVELOP AND MATURE TO SEVERE LIMITS. YOUR ASSISTANCE IS
VERY MUCH APPRECIATED. AFTER 9 OR 10 PM...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE SLOWLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

BAUMGARDT/RABERDING/DAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
809 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 E LUBLIN             45.08N 90.52W
06/07/2005  60 MPH           TAYLOR             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES UPROOTED.

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
824 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     HAIL             PLAINVIEW               44.17N 92.17W
06/07/2005  0.50 INCH        WABASHA            MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
829 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     HAIL             ELGIN                   44.13N 92.25W
06/07/2005  1.00 INCH        WABASHA            MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
847 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     HAIL             2 NW ELBA               44.11N 92.05W
06/07/2005  0.75 INCH        WINONA             MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
852 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LITTLE VALLEY           44.08N 92.13W
06/07/2005                   OLMSTED            MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINE DOWN AND SMALL BRANCHES DOWN NEAR LITTLE
            VALLEY.

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
855 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             3 N NEILLSVILLE         44.60N 90.59W
06/07/2005  1.75 INCH        CLARK              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SCHRECK