Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS La Crosse, WI

000 
WWUS53 KARX 080213
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
912 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

MNC109-080230-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-050608T0230Z/
OLMSTED MN-
912 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR OLMSTED COUNTY...

AT 912 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL OVER WAZIONJA 
CAMPGROUND...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTH OF ROCHESTER. THE SEVERE STORM 
WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...POTSDAM AROUND 925 PM CDT...

REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR
NO ADVANCED WARNING.

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4415 9232 4413 9235 4413 9238 4406 9258
      4407 9264 4410 9267 4419 9267 4419 9233

$$

RRS

000 
WWUS53 KARX 080223
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
922 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

MNC109-080230-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-050608T0230Z/
OLMSTED MN-
922 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR OLMSTED COUNTY...

WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED NICKEL SIZED NEAR PINE ISLAND AT 920 PM.

AT 922 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL 3 MILES WEST OF WAZIONJA
CAMPGROUND...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF MANTORVILLE. THE SEVERE
STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...POTSDAM AND KINGS PARK AROUND
930 PM CDT...

REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR
NO ADVANCED WARNING.

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4415 9232 4413 9235 4413 9238 4406 9258
      4407 9264 4410 9267 4419 9267 4419 9233

$$

RRS

000 
WWUS53 KARX 080229
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
929 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

MNC109-080238-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-050608T0230Z/
OLMSTED MN-
929 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR OLMSTED COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD BEEN SEVERE HAS WEAKENED. THEREFORE...THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR OLMSTED COUNTY HAS EXPIRED. STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN NORTHERN OLMSTED COUNTY...SO REMAIN ALERT 
FOR THREATENING WEATHER. 

REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR
NO ADVANCED WARNING.

LAT...LON 4415 9232 4413 9235 4413 9238 4406 9258
      4407 9264 4410 9267 4419 9267 4419 9233

$$

RRS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
205 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN FOCUSED ON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
NEXT FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA.
WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL WI THROUGH SOUTHERN MN TO THE LOW.
TONGUE OF 70F DEW POINTS STRETCHED FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MN.
REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING MCS THAT PRODUCED HAIL IN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL WI.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
DATA FROM NEAR KLSE-KMSP. NEW STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF KLSE. LAPS INDICATED SBCAPES HAVE BEEN BUILDING
AND WERE 3000-4000 J/KG AS A RESULT OF SUNSHINE RETURNING IN WAKE OF
MORNING CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES PIN-
WHEELING AROUND IT. SHORT WAVE OF INTEREST ADVANCING INTO WYOMING.

12Z 07JUN05 MODELS WERE SIMILAR WITH MASS FIELDS AND CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST MCS ACTIVITY CONTINUES NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. GFS AND NAM STILL HAD DIFFERENCES WHERE MCS WILL TRACK...
THUS RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES ON LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF QPF.
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THAT NAM SHOULD BE BEST MODEL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THEN CONFIDENCE LOW ON EXACT DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES AND
ANY AREAS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...UNCERTAINTY OF POSITION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INCREASE
THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CONVECTION ANTICIPATED TO INITIATE BETWEEN 21Z-00Z
THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI AND ALSO ALONG
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HIGHEST WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 35KTS-40KTS
SITUATED IN NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXTREME
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AREAWIDE WITH SBCAPES REACHING AS HIGH AS 4000
J/KG. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN PROXIMITY TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND/OR FRONT.

IN ADDITION...NOCTURNAL 850MB JET OF 50KTS WILL INTERCEPT THE FRONT.
CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF SLOW MOVING AND/OR BACK
BUILDING PROPAGATION OF STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN APPEAR
TO HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR REPEATING OVER SAME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WI...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES POOL
NEAR THE FRONT. 3HRLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN 2.5-3.5 INCHES...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THERE WERE LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THUS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL VIABLE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS BASED ON LARGE VALUES OF INSTABILITY AND
MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES. NUDGED RAIN
PROBABILITIES UPWARD ON WEDNESDAY BASED ON THEN NAM MODELS CONSISTENT
SIGNAL OF MCS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...OPTED TO REISSUE
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO CONTINUE HEIGHTENED AWARENESS FOR POTENTIAL OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS CORROBORATED BY 00Z 07JUN05 GFSLR AND ECMWF WHICH INDICATED
STORM TRACK ACROSS THE CONUS WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THEREFORE...CURRENT DATA BASE APPEARS REASONABLE WITH
RESPECT TO BROAD BRUSH TECHNIQUE OF RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

THOMPSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
608 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-WIZ054-055-061-081100-
ALLAMAKEE-CHICKASAW-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOWARD-
MITCHELL-RICHLAND-WINNESHIEK-
608 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE I-90 THIS
EVENING. DURING THE EARLY EVENING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT AREA. AS THE EVENING CONTINUES...AND A COMPLEX
OF ORGANIZED STORMS ESTABLISHES ITSELF...THE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRY
TO SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN. THEREFORE...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MID TO LATE
EVENING...OR AFTER ROUGHLY 9 PM. THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IS
STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

A COMPLEX OF STORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOWARD MORNING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITIES WILL BE WEAKER...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...AMPLE MOISTURE...STRONG
INSTABILITIES AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND WITH THE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS...
SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE LEVELS. WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT...ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THE WINDS ALOFT WILL
LIKELY FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE STORMS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION TO THESE THREATS...FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN AS REPEATED
RAINS FALL ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING...
AFTER 9 PM...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053-081100-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLARK-DODGE-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-WABASHA-WINONA-
608 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AFTER 9
PM...THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE THEIR SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...BUT THE FLOOD THREAT MAY BE MORE INCREASED. ALTHOUGH SOILS
ARE DRY...IF LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE RECEIVED /OVER 4 INCHES/
FLOODING COULD BE A THREAT.

A COMPLEX OF STORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY MOVE INTO THE
AREA TOWARD MORNING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITIES WILL BE WEAKER...SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...AMPLE MOISTURE...STRONG
INSTABILITIES AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND WITH THE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS...
SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE LEVELS. WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT...ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THE WINDS ALOFT WILL
LIKELY FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE STORMS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION TO THESE THREATS...FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN AS REPEATED
RAINS FALL ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
STORMS DEVELOP AND MATURE TO SEVERE LIMITS. YOUR ASSISTANCE IS
VERY MUCH APPRECIATED. AFTER 9 OR 10 PM...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE SLOWLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

BAUMGARDT/RABERDING/DAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
809 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 E LUBLIN             45.08N 90.52W
06/07/2005  60 MPH           TAYLOR             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES UPROOTED.

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
824 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     HAIL             PLAINVIEW               44.17N 92.17W
06/07/2005  0.50 INCH        WABASHA            MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
829 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     HAIL             ELGIN                   44.13N 92.25W
06/07/2005  1.00 INCH        WABASHA            MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
847 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     HAIL             2 NW ELBA               44.11N 92.05W
06/07/2005  0.75 INCH        WINONA             MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
852 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LITTLE VALLEY           44.08N 92.13W
06/07/2005                   OLMSTED            MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINE DOWN AND SMALL BRANCHES DOWN NEAR LITTLE
            VALLEY.

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
855 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             3 N NEILLSVILLE         44.60N 90.59W
06/07/2005  1.75 INCH        CLARK              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SCHRECK