Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Gaylord, MI

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 150950
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
450 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT...

.OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING THEN BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER AND NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. TOTAL SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THESE AREAS.

MIZ016-019>022-025>028-031>034-151100-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SB.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-051215T1100Z/
EMMET-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-
KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...
MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE
450 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. SNOW HAS LIGHTENED UP QUITE A BIT OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR SO AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. STEADIER SNOW MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

MIZ008-015-152300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1100Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
450 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING HEAVY
AT TIMES THIS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...TOTAL SNOWFALL OF AROUND A FOOT
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ017-018-023-024-029-030-035-036-041-042-152300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1100Z/
CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-OGEMAW-
IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...
ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...
STANDISH
450 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING HEAVY
AT TIMES THIS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...TOTAL SNOWFALL OF AROUND A FOOT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR LAKE
HURON. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 151012 CCA
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
450 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT...

.OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING THEN BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER AND NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. TOTAL SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THESE AREAS.

MIZ016-019>022-025>028-031>034-151100-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SB.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-051215T1100Z/
EMMET-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-
KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...
MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE
450 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. SNOW HAS LIGHTENED UP QUITE A BIT OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR SO AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. STEADIER SNOW MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

MIZ008-015-152300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1100Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
450 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING HEAVY
AT TIMES THIS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...TOTAL SNOWFALL OF AROUND A FOOT
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ017-018-023-024-029-030-035-036-041-042-152300-
/O.COR.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1100Z/
CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-OGEMAW-
IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...
ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...
STANDISH
450 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING HEAVY
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...TOTAL SNOWFALL OF AROUND A FOOT
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR
LAKE HURON. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 151723
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1223 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.SNOW WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AROUND A FOOT
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT IN THESE AREAS.

MIZ008-015-152300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1100Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1223 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

SNOW WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES. BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A FOOT IS
EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS EAST OF I-75.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ017-018-023-024-029-030-035-036-041-042-152300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1100Z/
CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-OGEMAW-
IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...
ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...
STANDISH
1223 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

SNOW WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER DURING THE COURSE OF
THE AFTERNOON...AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF M-33. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...STORM
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A FOOT IS EXPECTED WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS NEAR LAKE HURON.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 151802 CCA
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
101 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.SNOW WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AROUND A FOOT
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT IN THESE AREAS.

MIZ008-015-160000-
/O.COR.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1100Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
101 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

SNOW WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES. BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A FOOT IS
EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS EAST OF I-75.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL...YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS. DRESS WARMLY AND MAKE SURE YOUR CAR IS
IN GOOD RUNNING CONDITION.THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ017-018-023-024-029-030-035-036-041-042-160000-
/O.COR.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1100Z/
CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-OGEMAW-
IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...
ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...
STANDISH
101 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

SNOW WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER DURING THE COURSE OF
THE AFTERNOON...AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF M-33. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...STORM
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A FOOT IS EXPECTED WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS NEAR LAKE HURON.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL...YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS. DRESS WARMLY AND MAKE SURE YOUR CAR IS
IN GOOD RUNNING CONDITION.

$$

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 152112
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
412 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AROUND A FOOT IS EXPECTED
IN THESE AREAS.

MIZ008-015-161100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1100Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
412 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND BECOME HEAVY
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AND
MACKINAC COUNTIES. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A FOOT IS EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS EAST OF I-75.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL...YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS. DRESS WARMLY AND MAKE SURE YOUR CAR IS
IN GOOD RUNNING CONDITION.THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ017-018-023-024-029-030-035-036-041-042-161100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1100Z/
CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-OGEMAW-
IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...
ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...
STANDISH
412 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF M-33...THEN TAPER OFF
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...STORM TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FOOT IS EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS NEAR LAKE HURON.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL...YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS. DRESS WARMLY AND MAKE SURE YOUR CAR IS
IN GOOD RUNNING CONDITION.

$$

MIZ016-022-028-034-161100-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SN.Y.0002.051215T2112Z-051216T1100Z/
EMMET-OTSEGO-CRAWFORD-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...GAYLORD...GRAYLING...
HOUGHTON LAKE
412 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY.

SNOW...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL 
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 160358
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1058 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING...STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL AROUND A FOOT IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

MIZ008-015-161100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1100Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1058 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE UP TO A
FOOT...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF I 75.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL...YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS. DRESS WARMLY AND MAKE SURE YOUR CAR IS
IN GOOD RUNNING CONDITION.THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ017-018-023-024-029-030-035-036-041-042-161100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1100Z/
CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-OGEMAW-
IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...
ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...
STANDISH
1058 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE UP TO A
FOOT...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE
BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL...YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS. DRESS WARMLY AND MAKE SURE YOUR CAR IS
IN GOOD RUNNING CONDITION.

$$

MIZ016-022-028-034-161100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SN.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-051216T1100Z/
EMMET-OTSEGO-CRAWFORD-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...GAYLORD...GRAYLING...
HOUGHTON LAKE
1058 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE 2 TO 5 INCHES.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 160923
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
423 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT
THEN TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT TO
THE WEST TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AND WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. BY TONIGHT...3 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE COMMON IN THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE
MICHIGAN. 

MIZ015-162300-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0012.051216T1100Z-051217T1100Z/
MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST. IGNACE
423 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

THE HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WINTER STORM
WARNING HAS ENDED...THEREFORE THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL HOWEVER...PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED EAST OF EPOUFETTE TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ008-017-018-023-024-029-030-035-036-041-042-161030-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1100Z/
CHIPPEWA-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-
OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...CHEBOYGAN...
ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
423 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

THE HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS TAPERED OFF OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SNOW
SHOWERS REMAIN LIKELY AT TIMES TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY TODAY.

$$

MIZ016-162300-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SN.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-051216T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0012.051216T1100Z-051217T1100Z/
EMMET-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...PETOSKEY
423 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY. THE
SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL BE
BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 31 TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ022-028-034-161030-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SN.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-051216T1100Z/
OTSEGO-CRAWFORD-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAYLORD...GRAYLING...HOUGHTON LAKE
423 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SNOW
ADVISORY. 

THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE SNOW ADVISORY HAS
ENDED. THEREFORE THE SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING
HOWEVER...AND MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
916 PM EST WED DEC 14 2005

.UPDATE...SNOW HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. INITIAL
REPORT INDICATE AT LEAST 2 INCHES (LOCALLY HIGHER) HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN ACROSS FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN MANISTEE...BENZIE
AND WEXFORD COUNTIES. NATURE OF THE SNOW IS MORE CONVECTIVE THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THUS THE REASON WHY SNOWFALL HAS BEEN GREATER
THAN EXPECTED SO FAR. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO ISSUE A SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORY FOR OVERNIGHT FOR NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
COUNTIES AND TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS. COUNTIES PREVIOUSLY IN THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESCALATED
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
4 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 430 PM EST WED DEC 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/SFC MAP SHOWING STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA REGION...WITH A SFC TROF
EXTENDING SOUTH TO A SECONDARY WEAK LOW OVER IOWA. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE NOW DRIVING ACROSS IOWA INTO SW WISCONSIN WITH A FAIRLY
LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL ROTATING UP INTO WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE WAVE.
BULK OF THE INITIAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHUNTED WELL EASTWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLIER TODAY WITH JUST A BROKEN LINE OF WARM
ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW STRETCHING BACK UP ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...AND
OMINOUS LACK OF RADAR RETURNS UPSTREAM TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...RADAR
RETURNS NOW BEGINNING TO FILL IN A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST (WISCONSIN)
AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES. FINALLY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND THAT WAS PREVALENT ACROSS NRN LAKE HURON THIS MORNING HAS ALL
BUT DISAPPEARED FROM RADAR VIEW...ALTHOUGH ALPENA DID DROP DOWN TO
AROUND ONE MILE IN SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON (PRESUMABLY
SOME OF THIS LAKE CONVECTION PRESSING ONSHORE...OR SNOW BLOWING
OPERATIONS AT THE AIRPORT).

FORECAST ISSUES TONIGHT CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS/
TIMING AND HEADLINES AS SYNOPTIC ASCENT RAMPS UP ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
TONIGHT.

AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER UPDATE AFD...SNOWFALL HAS BEEN SLOW TO ARRIVE
TODAY AND 12Z GRB/APX SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...WITH A PRONOUNCED
DRY WEDGE OF AIR BETWEEN 850 AND 650 MB TO OVERCOME. HOWEVER...
THINGS WILL CHANGE THIS EVENING AS STRONG FOCUSED ASCENT INCREASES
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN COURTESY OF DPVA AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND THERMAL
RIDGE/STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOSES UP INTO THE REGION. REGIONAL
RADAR PATTERN FINALLY SHOWING THIS PROCESS UNFOLDING WITH AN
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIP UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN LIFTING NE.
HENCE...TIMING IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE OR EVEN HEAVY CATEGORICAL
SNOWFALL SW-NE ACROSS THE CWA STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE AT THIS POINT.
BEHIND THE STRONG ASCENT...DRY SLOT STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA LATER OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD SHUT
OFF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS BY MORNING.

AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONCERNED...RIDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES RUNNING AROUND 3G/KG FORECAST TO NOSE UP
THROUGH THE CWA DURING PEAK ASCENT. FALLING BACK ON THE OL
ISENTROPIC MIXING RATIO (IMR) METHOD SUGGESTS A 12 HOUR SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL OF 3-6 INCHES. HOWEVER... STRONG FOCUSED ASCENT ONLY
PRESENT FOR 6 TO 9 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION...AND A TOTAL
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL IN THE 1-3/2-4 INCH RANGE LOOKS APPROPRIATE.

STILL SOME ROOM FOR SE FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO EASTERN CHIPPEWA
AND MACKINAC COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AS 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST IN THE
-6C TO -8C RANGE. BUT...A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER (INVERSION HEIGHTS BLO
4K FEET) AND A RELATIVELY WARM THERMAL PROFILE (DEEP ISOTHERMAL
LAYER WARMER THAN -10C) NOT SUPPORTIVE OF GETTING THE LAKE REAL
INVOLVED. COUPLED WITH THE FACT I WOULD REALLY LIKE TO SEE SOME
SEMBLANCE OF LAKE BANDING NOW...NOW BELIEVE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BECOME A BIG PLAYER TONIGHT. HENCE HAVE NOT UPGRADED WATCHES TO
WARNINGS (WATCHES ACTUALLY PUSHED BACK...SEE BELOW).

ADAM

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXTREMELY COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING
THUR AND THUR NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS AND ASSOCIATED HEADLINES ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN. NAM/GFS AGREE THAT UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE ACROSS SRN MN
THU AND INTO WI BY THU NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
ACROSS WI THU...REACHING LOWER MI BY LATE THU NIGHT. GFS IS A BIT
FARTHER S AND STRONGER THAN NAM -- AND IS GENERALLY PREFERRED.

AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES...A STRONG SHORT WAVE (WITH ASSOCIATED 70-80
KT 5H SPEED MAX) WILL LIFT NE OUT OF BASE OF TROUGH ON THU...CAUSING
TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. CONSEQUENTLY...STRONG 7H-5H QG
FORCING AND UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY -- IMPACTING
MAINLY ERN THIRD OF FORECAST AREA. SIMILARLY...MODELS AGREE THAT
AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY...WITH VERY TIGHT W TO E MOISTURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BOTH THU
AND THU NIGHT (8H-5H RH 50% AROUND TVC...AND >90% AROUND APN 18Z
THU). MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THIS NICELY...WITH MOISTURE LARGELY
GONE ABOVE ABOUT -8C AROUND TVC. MEANWHILE...DEEP/ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL EXIST VICINITY OF APN. 290K ISENTROPIC PLOTS SHOW 2-3 G/KG
MIXING RATIOS OVER ERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH ONLY MEAGER
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. QG FORCING AND UPPER DIVERGENCE...ON THE OTHER
HAND...ARE IMPRESSIVE. ATYPICAL FORCING/MOISTURE EVOLUTION...
TOGETHER WITH TIGHT W-E MOISTURE GRADIENT...SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST. BEST COURSE OF ACTION APPEARS TO BE
EXPANDING WATCH TO INCLUDE BROADER PORTION OF NE LOWER AND E UPPER
(ESPECIALLY WITH WATCH ALREADY HOISTED FOR SOME COUNTIES). IN
ADDITION TO SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...SOME BOOST FROM LAKE HURON POSSIBLE
IN ERN UPPER...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT WHEN 8H TEMPS FALL OFF TO AROUND
-9C. A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO LOCALLY 10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WATCH AREA THU AND THU NIGHT...LOCALLY GREATER IN ERN UPPER.

WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID LEVEL DRYING...WILL ALSO INCLUDE
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER WRN AREAS DURING THE DAY ON THU. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH LESS OVER WRN AREAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP/STACKED CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY
MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION...AS 8H TEMPS SLOWLY COOLING TO AROUND
-10C BY LATE FRI -- AND TO AROUND -12C BY SAT. WITH 8H-5H RH
REMAINING ABOVE 60% AND MODEST LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS...SNOW SHOWERS
APPEAR LIKELY MANY AREAS. DEPTH OF COLD AIR...EXTENT OF SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT...AND WIND DIRECTIONS WILL DETERMINE INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE SUN THROUGH WED TIMEFRAME...AS GENERAL UPPER TROUGHINESS
LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION SUN INTO MON...
WITH SUFFICIENTLY COLD 8H TEMPS FOR LAKE EFFECT. THE 00Z GFS
SUGGESTS A RESPITE FROM LAKE EFFECT ABOUT TUE...WITH WEAK UPPER
RIDGING AND 8H TEMPS MODERATING TO AROUND -8C. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GEM) INSIST THAT MODEST TROUGHING
ALOFT WILL HOLD FIRM OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND WRN GREAT LAKES...WITH
NO REAL BREAK FROM AT LEAST SOME LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL. WITH THE 06Z
AND 12Z GFS APPARENTLY LEANING BACK TOWARD THE (ECMWF) TROUGHIER
SOLUTION...WILL KEEP RISK OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING FOR TUE AND WED.
THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS...AND CERTAINLY WITH MID DECEMBER CLIMO. THAT SAID...AIR MASS
WILL BE VERY SEASONABLE (NOT BRUTALLY COLD) WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

SMITH

&&

.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
       WINTER STORM WARNING...OVERNIGHT AND THU NIGHT...
          MIZ008-015-017-018-023-024-029-030-035-036-041-042.
       SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY...OVERNIGHT...
          MIZ016-019>022-025>028-031>034.
       GALE WARNING...TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THU...
          LMZ341-LHZ345>349.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
445 PM EST WED DEC 14 2005

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-LSZ321-322-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-
LHZ345>349-151100-
ALCONA-ALPENA-ANTRIM-ARENAC-BENZIE-CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA-
CRAWFORD-EMMET-GLADWIN-GRAND TRAVERSE-IOSCO-KALKASKA-LEELANAU-
MACKINAC-MANISTEE-MISSAUKEE-MONTMORENCY-OGEMAW-OSCODA-OTSEGO-
PRESQUE ISLE-ROSCOMMON-WEXFORD...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT WATERS WITHIN
FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON...AND
LAKE SUPERIOR
445 PM EST WED DEC 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SURROUNDING NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAKE
HURON SHORELINE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. SEE ONGOING
WARNINGS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION...ACCOMPANIED BY BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SURROUNDING NORTHERN MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAKE
HURON SHORELINE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC.

SEE ONGOING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SNOWBELT
AREAS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...PLEASE RELAY YOUR SNOWFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD (ALL LOWER CASE)

SULLIVAN/ADAM