Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 161558
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1058 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...FIRST HEAVY SNOW COMING TO THE SNOWBELTS...

.VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN THIS AND TONIGHT BEHIND A
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

MIZ019-021-022-027-028-162300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0001.051116T1700Z-051117T1700Z/
CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING
1058 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST
THURSDAY. 

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...AND BECOME HEAVY
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH NOON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 14 INCHES...WITH MOST OF THAT
FALLING TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THOUGH WINDS
WILL WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ016-017-020-023-025-026-029-031>034-162300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0002.051116T1700Z-051117T1100Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-LEELANAU-MONTMORENCY-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-OSCODA-
MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...NORTHPORT...
ATLANTA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...MIO...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...
LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE
1058 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

MIXED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON...AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 7
INCHES...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY EARLY THIS EVENING...
THOUGH WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

MIZ008-162300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0002.051116T1700Z-051117T1100Z/
CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE
1058 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 7 INCHES...MOST OF THAT WEST OF I-75 AND MOST OF
THAT FALLING TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THOUGH WINDS
WILL WEAKEN AS THE .

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 162122
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
422 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...FIRST HEAVY SNOW OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS...

.VERY COLD AIR FLOWING OVER LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN WILL 
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. 
IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS...SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.
ALSO...GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

MIZ008-020-025-026-171130-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-051117T1100Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051117T1700Z/
CHIPPEWA-LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...NORTHPORT...
FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY
422 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST THURSDAY. THIS
UPGRADES THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT.

SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL ACCUMULATE 6 TO 12 INCHES
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MOST ACCUMULATION
OCCURRING TONIGHT. ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY...GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR WEST OF I-75...WHILE GREATEST ACCUMULATION IN NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. ALSO...WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 30 TO 35
MPH...PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ019-021-022-027-028-171130-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051117T1700Z/
CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING
422 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST
THURSDAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL ACCUMULATE 6 TO 12 INCHES
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MOST ACCUMULATION
OCCURRING TONIGHT INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. ALSO...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 30 TO 35 MPH...PRODUCING AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ015-171100-
/O.EXA.KAPX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-051117T1100Z/
MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST. IGNACE
422 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCUMULATE 2 TO 7 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MOST ACCUMULATION OCCURRING WEST OF I-75 
TONIGHT. ALSO...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
30 TO 35 MPH...PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

MIZ016-017-023-029-031>034-171100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-051117T1100Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-MONTMORENCY-OSCODA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ATLANTA...MIO...
MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE
422 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCUMULATE 2 TO 7 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MOST ACCUMULATION OCCURRING TONIGHT. 
ALSO...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 30 TO 35
MPH...PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 170559
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1259 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...FIRST HEAVY SNOW OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS...

.VERY COLD AIR FLOWING OVER LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN WILL
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS...SNOW WILL BECOME
HEAVY AT TIMES. ALSO...GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

MIZ031>033-171100-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-051117T1100Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051117T1700Z/
MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
1259 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMLULATIONS WILL BE 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FROM INLAND MANISTEE COUNTY EASTWARD TO CADILLAC AND LAKE CITY.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ008-019>022-025>028-171100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051117T1700Z/
CHIPPEWA-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-
KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...CHARLEVOIX...
NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING
1259 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL ACCUMULATE 6 TO 12 INCHES
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MOST ACCUMULATION
OCCURRING TONIGHT. ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY...GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR WEST OF I-75...WHILE GREATEST ACCUMULATION IN NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN.
ALSO...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 30 TO
35 MPH...PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ015>017-023-029-034-171100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-051117T1100Z/
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-MONTMORENCY-OSCODA-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. IGNACE...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...
ATLANTA...MIO...HOUGHTON LAKE
1259 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY
THIS MORNING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY
THIS MORNING. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCUMULATE 2 TO 7 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MOST ACCUMULATION OCCURRING WEST OF I-
75 TONIGHT. ALSO...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST
TO 30 TO 35 MPH...PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

JZ

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 170909
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
409 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...

.VERY COLD AIR FLOWING OVER LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN WILL
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY. HEAVY SNOW
REMAINS A THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY EARLY.
HOWEVER...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPARTS FROM THE
REGION...THE SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND LESS WIDESPREAD.

MIZ008-019>022-025>028-031>033-171700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051117T1700Z/
CHIPPEWA-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-
KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...CHARLEVOIX...
NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
409 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 5 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN...AS WELL AS WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ015>017-023-029-034-171700-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-051117T1700Z/
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-MONTMORENCY-OSCODA-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. IGNACE...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...
ATLANTA...MIO...HOUGHTON LAKE
409 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IN MACKINAC
COUNTY...MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF I-75.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

JZ

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 171606
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1106 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE...

.VERY COLD AIR FLOWING OVER LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS 
AFTERNOON. THEN...EARLY THIS THIS EVENING...DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION...AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.

MIZ008-031-172300-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051117T1700Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-051117T2300Z/
CHIPPEWA-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...MANISTEE
1106 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WARNING THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT 
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON...AND TOTAL DAYTIME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MANISTEE
COUNTY...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

MIZ019>022-025>028-032-033-172300-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051117T2300Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
CRAWFORD-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...
GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...
CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
1106 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

SNOW SHOWERS...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW...WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
TOTAL DAYTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ015>017-023-029-034-172300-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-051117T2300Z/
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-MONTMORENCY-OSCODA-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. IGNACE...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...
ATLANTA...MIO...HOUGHTON LAKE
1106 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND TOTAL 
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 172112
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
412 PM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...SNOW STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME AREAS...

.SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THEN...AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE FROM MANISTEE...TO LELAND...TO
PETOSKEY...TO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW
ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS BY LATE FRIDAY.

MIZ019-020-025-181100-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051117T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0001.051118T0900Z-051118T2200Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-BENZIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT
412 PM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT HAS BEEN CANCELED. 

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY...
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ021-022-026>028-032-033-172215-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051117T2300Z/
ANTRIM-OTSEGO-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
412 PM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

$$

MIZ015-181100-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-051117T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0001.051118T0900Z-051118T2200Z/
MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST. IGNACE
412 PM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT HAS BEEN
CANCELED.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY...
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE MACKINAC BRIDGE WESTWARD ALONG US-2.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ016-031-181100-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-051117T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0001.051118T0900Z-051118T2200Z/
EMMET-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...MANISTEE
412 PM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT HAS BEEN
CANCELED.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY...
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ008-017-023-029-034-172215-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-051117T2300Z/
CHIPPEWA-CHEBOYGAN-MONTMORENCY-OSCODA-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...CHEBOYGAN...
ATLANTA...MIO...HOUGHTON LAKE
412 PM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

$$

SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
325 AM EDT WED NOV 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...NOVEMBER BOMB PROCEEDING NORTH OVER LAKE MI...
CURRENTLY NEARING THE NORTH SHORE AT ISQ. VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT WITH THIS RAPIDLY DEEPENING
STORM...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINING TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50KT
ON S/E FLANKS OF LOW. SHOWERY PRECIP IN DRY SLOT IS STILL LIQUID IN
NORTHERN LOWER...BUT COLD AIR IS SURGING ACROSS THE LAKE AND THE WI
SHORE IS ALL SNOW. STILL MIGHT BE A MIX IN NW CHIPPEWA COUNTY...
OTHERWISE ALSO ALL RAIN IN EASTERN UPPER. THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF
FORECAST PROBLEMS...HEADLINE ISSUES ARE WINDS TODAY AND SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THURSDAY.

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. DEEPER NAM SURFACE LOW IS
PREFERRED IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THE GFS HANG
ONTO SURFACE TROFFING THURSDAY LONGER THAN THE NAM. GIVEN THE VERY
COLD/UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE LAKES...GFS IS STRONGLY PREFERRED HERE.

TODAY...

WINDS...ONGOING WIND HEADLINES APPEAR GOOD...WITH A FEW HOURS OF
WINDS NEARING 50KT JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO
DOWNGRADE THE WARNING EARLY IN THE SW ZONES (BUT NOT YET) AS
TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES NORTH WITH THE LOW. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR NE LOWER...WITH NAM PROGS OF 925MB WINDS NEARING 50KT FOR
THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...THEY DON/T HAVE THE TERRAIN OR
ONSHORE WIND ISSUES THERE THAT NW/N CENTRAL LOWER HAS...AND THINK
THAT WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. SIMILARLY...THE
WIND ADVISORY MAY RUN A LITTLE TOO LONG INTO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN LOWER MI...BUT THAT CAN BE CANCELLED EARLY WHEN THE TIME
COMES. IT MANY PLACES...I/M ABOUT TO REPLACE IT WITH WINTER WX
HEADLINES ANYWAY.

PRECIP...WE/LL LOSE ABOUT 10-12C OFF OF 850MB TEMPS DURING THE DAY.
PRECIP WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW...FIRST IN EASTERN UPPER AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER. HOWEVER...EVEN THE LAKE MI
BEACHES WILL LOSE THE BATTLE BY MIDDAY OR SOON AFTER...WITH 850MB
TEMPS BELOW -6C AND SURFACE TEMPS FALLING STEADILY. LIQUID PRECIP
WILL HANG ON LONGEST FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT SOUTHWARD...WHERE
DOWNSLOPING WITH WSW WINDS WILL HOLD OFF THE CHANGEOVER TIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY. DRY SLOT SEMI-LULL IN THE PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST AS COMMA HEAD PIVOTS INTO MI. INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER
UPSTREAM LAKES (12Z DELTA T/S 10 OVER SUPERIOR...15 OVER LAKE
MI...INCREASING TO NEAR 20 BY 00Z) WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE/
COMMA HEAD DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVERYWHERE
EVENTUALLY...EXCEPT MAYBE EAST OF M-33 WHERE SOMETHING LIKE A 70 POP
MAY BE BEST.

SO HOW MUCH SNOW/HOW BAD THE CONDITIONS TODAY? WILL NOT BE DEALING
WITH MUCH ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING...WITH NOT MUCH DYNAMICS...WET/
WARM GROUND...AND SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. BUT A LOT OF THINGS
START COMING TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALONG/WEST OF I-75 FALL
TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASES. COMMA HEAD
DYNAMICS INCREASE...BULLSEYE OF 700-500MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MI. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK INVERSION AT
7-8K FEET...A CAP THAT PROBABLY WILL NOT HOLD. A SECOND WEAK
INVERSION AT 13K FEET WILL LIKELY HOLD. MODEL PROGS 250J/KG OF CAPE
OVER THE LAKE. 1000-850MB WINDS WILL BE VEERING AROUND FROM W TO
WNW/NW DURING THE PM. THINK ACCUMS WILL STILL BE HELP UP NEAR THE
BIG LAKES...BUT BETWEEN US-131 AND I-75 CAN SEE 1-3 INCHES FALLING
(HEAVIEST LATE. IN EASTERN UPPER...WINDS DON/T VEER AROUND AND
PROVIDE A SUPERIOR FETCH TIL MID AFTERNOON...SO AN INCH OR MAYBE TWO
WILL SUFFICE.

TONIGHT...1000-850MB FLOW FLOW VERY QUICKLY LOCKS IN TO A NW FLOW IN
NORTHERN LOWER MI. NAM SHOWS SOME WOBBLING BETWEEN NW AND NNW IN
EASTERN UPPER AS LAKE-INDUCED TROF BOBBLES AROUND NEAR WHITEFISH
BAY. 850-700MB RH VALUES REMAIN 80 PERCENT OR HIGHER. 700-500MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BULLSEYE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER
MI IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE HEADING EAST VERY LATE.
INVERSION HEIGHTS ABOVE 7K FEET THRU THE NIGHT...AS 850MB TEMPS
GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE MINUS MID TEENS C...WITH DELTA T/S LOWERING
TOWARD THE LOW/MID 20S.

WHAT I/M TRYING TO SAY IS THAT THE NW FLOW AREAS ARE GOING TO GET
CLOBBERED. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE BIG 5 IN NORTHERN LOWER
(WITH A MORE STABLE FETCH). A DOMINANT BAND THAT FORMS AND DOES NOT
BUDGE COULD DUMP 1-1.5 INCH-PER-HOUR SNOW ALL NIGHT. NAM IS KIND
ENOUGH TO COOPERATE WITH THIS THINKING...PLACING A HALF-INCH QPF
BULLSEYE IN THE BIG 5. WILL CRANK UP THE BIG 5 TO SOMETHING
APPROACHING 5-10 INCH ACCUMS...WITH LESS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN
LOWER. WILL ALLOW CLOSE TO 5-6 INCHES NEAR PARADISE IN NW
CHIPPEWA...BUT HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD STAY WEST OF I-75 AND THE SAULT.

THURSDAY...SOME DRYING FINALLY MAKES IT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. 850-700MB RH LEVELS DROP TO 50 PERCENT OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MI...60-70 PERCENT OFF THE NAM IN EASTERN SUPERIOR BUT THIS APPEARS
TO BE WITH NAM RESOLVING EXPLICIT LES (NOT THE BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC
CONDITIONS). AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE TN/OHIO
VALLEYS...1000-850MB WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK WNW DURING THE
DAY..WITH A TOUCH OF WARM ADVECTION (850MB TEMPS WARM 2-3C TO ABOUT
-14C...DELTA T/S STILL WELL INTO THE 20S). MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE WILL RE-ESTABLISH A LOWER INVERSION...THOUGH
NAM STILL KEEPS IT IN THE 7-8K FEET RANGE. SO SIGNAL ARE A LITTLE
MORE MIXED...BUT STILL A LOT OF THINGS IN FAVOR OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
WILL BUMP UP POPS TO NUMEROUS IN THE SNOWBELTS IN THE MORNING...AND
ALLOW FOR A GENERAL 1-2 INCH ACCUMS IN NW/WNW FLOW AREAS. I/M
INCLINED TO THINK THIS IS CONSERVATIVE.

HEADLINES...PER COORD WITH GRR/MQT...CURRENT WIND HEADLINES WILL RUN
UNALTERED TIL NOON. WILL THEN KICK IN WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
BIG 5 (CHARLEVOIX/ANTRIM/KALKASKA/OTSEGO/CRAWFORD)...RUNNING THRU
NOON THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL START AT NOON ACROSS
CHIPPEWA AND THE REST OF NW/N CENTRAL LOWER MI...RUNNING THROUGH 6
AM THURSDAY. I CHOSE THESE HEADLINES BECAUSE OF WIND COMPLICATIONS
AND SYNOPTIC SUPPORT THRU THE EVENING. AT SOME POINT A TRANSITION TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY BE APPROPRIATE. MACKINAC
AND NE LOWER MI WILL JUST HAVE THE WIND HEADLINES. WILL LEAVE MARINE
HEADLINES ALONE...SOME OF STORMS WARNINGS PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO
BE DOWNGRADED BY LATE MORNING. (BRACE YOURSELF...THE WATCH/WARNING/
ADVISORY SECTION BELOW IS VERY UGLY.)

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...MINIMAL TIME TO ADDRESS THESE PERIODS. WILL
REMOVE ANY DRY PERIODS GIVEN ABUNDANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES
THRU THE PERIODS. A CLIPPER WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AND WILL
BUMP UP POPS A SMIDGE. COMBINATION OF CLIPPER DYNAMICS AND DELTA T/S
STILL IN THE HIGH TEENS/NEAR 20 MAY REQUIRE LIKELY POPS LATER ON.

NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.

ZOLTOWSKI

&&

.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
       HIGH WIND WARNING...THROUGH NOON...
            MIZ008-015>017-019>022-025>028-031>034
       WIND ADVISORY...THROUGH NOON...MIZ023-029
       WIND ADVISORY...THROUGH 6 PM...
            MIZ018-024-030-035-036-041-042
       WIND ADVISORY...NOON THRU 6 PM...MIZ015.
       WINTER STORM WARNING...NOON TODAY TO NOON THURSDAY...
            MIZ019-021-022-027-028
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...NOON TODAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY...
            MIZ008-016-017-020-023-025-026-029-031>034
       STORM WARNING...THRU 6 PM...ALL NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1146 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-LSZ321-322-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-
LHZ345>349-161100-
ALCONA-ALPENA-ANTRIM-ARENAC-BENZIE-CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA-
CRAWFORD-EMMET-GLADWIN-GRAND TRAVERSE-IOSCO-KALKASKA-LEELANAU-
MACKINAC-MANISTEE-MISSAUKEE-MONTMORENCY-OGEMAW-OSCODA-OTSEGO-
PRESQUE ISLE-ROSCOMMON-WEXFORD...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT WATERS WITHIN
FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON...AND
LAKE SUPERIOR
1146 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 55 KNOTS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THESE WINDS GUSTS WILL ALSO BE FELT OVER THE INLAND
LOCALES OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND WEST
OF INTERSTATE 75. SEE ONGOING WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AS
WELL AS CURRENT MARINE FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORM SYSTEM
OVERNIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO
55 KNOTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE INLAND LOCALES OF EASTERN
UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.
SEE ONGOING WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AS WELL AS CURRENT
MARINE FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON...THUS FAR...WILL THEN MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORMALLY FAVORED SNOW-BELT
REGIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...PLEASE RELAY REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS AND POTENTIAL WIND
DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD (ALL LOWER CASE)

SMITH/MLR/SMD