Snow Advisory 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 012108
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
408 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...HEAVY SNOWS RETURNING TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

.A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL INTO THE EVENING. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
ON THE ATLANTIC COAST LATER TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...
MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELTS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

MIZ019-021-022-027-028-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0003.051201T2300Z-051203T0500Z/
CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING
408 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
FRIDAY NIGHT...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
FRIDAY NIGHT. 

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY EVENING...6 TO
10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COMMUNITIES OF KALKASKA
AND MANCELONA. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ024-020500-
/O.CON.KAPX.HS.W.0001.051201T2300Z-051202T0500Z/
ALPENA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ALPENA
408 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN CLOSER TO LAKE HURON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
IN THESE AREAS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 6 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...2 TO
5 INCHES WILL BE COMMON.

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.

$$

MIZ016-017-021100-
/O.EXT.KAPX.LE.Y.0004.051201T2300Z-051203T0500Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN
408 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
FRIDAY NIGHT. 

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. TOTAL
SNOWFALL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING MAY BE AS HIGH AS 9 INCHES FOR
COMMUNITIES IN AND AROUND PETOSKEY AND WOLVERINE. THE SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ020-025-026-031>033-021100-
/O.EXT.KAPX.LE.Y.0004.051201T2300Z-051202T2300Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
408 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
FRIDAY. 

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE AS
HIGH AS 9 INCHES FOR COMMUNITIES IN AND AROUND MAPLE CITY...
TRAVERSE CITY AND MANTON. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ008-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0004.051202T0500Z-051203T1100Z/
CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE
408 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT BEFORE INTENSIFYING LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
INTENSIFYING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. UP TO
4 INCHES WILL FALL WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 TONIGHT...WITH AS MUCH
AS 5 TO 9 INCHES EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR AREAS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 75...A TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ018-030-020500-
/O.CON.KAPX.SN.Y.0001.051201T2300Z-051202T0500Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-ALCONA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...HARRISVILLE
408 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING RESULTING IN TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 020123
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
823 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...HEAVY SNOWS RETURNING TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

.A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL INTO THE EVENING. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
ON THE ATLANTIC COAST LATER TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...
MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELTS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

MIZ020-025-026-021100-
/O.UPG.KAPX.LE.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-051202T2300Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051202T2300Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY
823 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. TOTAL STORM SNOWFALL BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ON FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
OVERNIGHT...TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...RESULTING IN SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ019-021-022-027-028-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051203T0500Z/
CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING
823 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
FRIDAY NIGHT...

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY EVENING...6 TO 10 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COMMUNITIES OF KALKASKA AND MANCELONA.
THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ024-020500-
/O.CON.KAPX.HS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051202T0500Z/
ALPENA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ALPENA
823 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN CLOSER TO LAKE HURON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
IN THESE AREAS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 6 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...2 TO
5 INCHES WILL BE COMMON.

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.

$$

MIZ016-017-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-051203T0500Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN
823 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
FRIDAY NIGHT...

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. TOTAL
SNOWFALL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING MAY BE AS HIGH AS 9 INCHES FOR
COMMUNITIES IN AND AROUND PETOSKEY AND WOLVERINE. THE SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ008-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0004.051202T0500Z-051203T1100Z/
CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE
823 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT BEFORE INTENSIFYING LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
INTENSIFYING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. UP TO 4
INCHES WILL FALL WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 TONIGHT...WITH AS MUCH AS 5
TO 9 INCHES EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75...A TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ031>033-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-051202T2300Z/
MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
823 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
FRIDAY...

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE AS HIGH AS 9 INCHES
FOR COMMUNITIES IN AND AROUND WELLSTON AND MANTON. THE SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ018-030-020500-
/O.CON.KAPX.SN.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-051202T0500Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-ALCONA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...HARRISVILLE
823 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING RESULTING IN TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

JZ

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 020417
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1117 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...HEAVY SNOW HAS RETURNED TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

.WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FROM WIDESPREAD SNOW TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST MOVES FURTHER
AWAY. COLDER AIR IS PRESENTLY INVADING THE REGION...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELTS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

MIZ024-021100-
/O.CAN.KAPX.HS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051202T0500Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051202T1100Z/
ALPENA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ALPENA
1117 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY. THIS
REPLACES THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING.

LOCALIZED BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THOUGH MOST PLACES IN ALPENA COUNTY WILL SEE AN
INCH OR SO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT...SOME SPOTS IN
THE EAST HALF OF THE COUNTY COULD SEE CLOSER TO 3 INCHES BETWEEN
11 PM AND 6 AM...BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ018-030-021100-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SN.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-051202T0500Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.LE.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-051202T1100Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-ALCONA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...HARRISVILLE
1117 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY. THIS
REPLACES THE SNOW ADVISORY.

LOCALIZED BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THOUGH MOST PLACES IN PRESQUE ISLE AND ALCONA
COUNTIES WILL SEE AN INCH OR SO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
OVERNIGHT...SOME SPOTS NEAR LAKE HURON COULD SEE CLOSER TO 3
INCHES BETWEEN 11 PM AND 6 AM...BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ020-025-026-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051202T2300Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY
1117 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
FRIDAY...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
TOTAL STORM SNOWFALL BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ON FRIDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT...TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...RESULTING IN SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ019-021-022-027-028-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051203T0500Z/
CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING
1117 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
FRIDAY NIGHT...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE COMMUNITIES OF KALKASKA AND MANCELONA. THE SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ008-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0004.051202T0500Z-051203T1100Z/
CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE
1117 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD VERY LATE TONIGHT...AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-75. AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10
INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEST OF I-75 BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 75...A TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 5
INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ016-017-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-051203T0500Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN
1117 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
FRIDAY NIGHT...

SNOW SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH 3 TO
7 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
MAY BE AS HIGH AS 9 INCHES FOR COMMUNITIES IN AND AROUND PETOSKEY
AND WOLVERINE. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ031>033-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-051202T2300Z/
MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
1117 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
FRIDAY...

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. 

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

JZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1016 AM EST THU DEC 1 2005

.UPDATE...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN INVERTED SURFACE PRESSURE
TROUGH ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VISIBLE
AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW CLOUDS BLANKETING THE
REGION WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUD TOPS INDICATING MORE VIGOROUS SNOW
SHOWERS. APX WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOW MOVING ACROSS...WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA BLANKETED BY SNOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
VISIBILITIES ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE AND TWO MILES WITH AN
OCCASIONAL HALF MILE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
ACCUMULATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SWINGS INTO THE CWFA...BECOMING ORIENTED FROM
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO BY 00Z. WITH LAYER RH/S
THROUGH 500 MB IN EXCESS OF 80 PCT AND WEAK DIVERGENCE INDICATED
BETWEEN 400-200 MB WILL EXPECT THE SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR ACCUMULATIONS...THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE IS A CONCERN AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM...AND IS
LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOW ALONG THE
SHORELINE. SECONDARY ACCUMULATION CONCERN IS THE 850-500 MB QG
CONVERGENCE WHICH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWFA LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FINAL CONCERN IS FLAKE
SIZE...REPORTS THIS MORNING AND WINDOW OBSERVATION INDICATE SMALL
FLAKE SIZE WHICH WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THESE THOUGHTS IN
MIND HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY (COUPLE TENTHS) FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF M-72 AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY.

MJP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EDT THU DEC 1 2005

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FAIRLY SHARP 500 MB TROUGH AND VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IN THE
VCNTY OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER IS GENERATING STRONG LIFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW... RESULTING IN A RATHER
LARGE AREA OF SNOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THE FAR WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. LOCAL KAPX RADAR
INDICATES INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA
ATTM. UPSTREAM RADARS AND SURFACE OBS OVER WISCONSIN SUGGEST ERN
EDGE OF PRECIP IS NOW MOVING INTO ERN WISCONSIN. THIS MATCHES WELL
WITH ERN EDGE OF SYNOPTIC LIFT AND MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY LATEST
NAM. OBS HAVE INDICATED VSBYS HAVE REMAINED AOA 1SM IN ONGOING
SYNOPTIC SNOW...WITH A FEW PERIODIC REPORTS OF 3/4SM. FORECAST FOCUS
FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS THE UPSTREAM LOW AND THE ATLANTIC LOW INTERACT
AND EVOLVE INTO A LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT.

TODAY...UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW...UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
MOVE THRU MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ENERGY FROM THIS LOW IS
THEN TRANSFERRED TO THE EAST COAST LOW AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN IN ITS
WAKE. OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND
TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT (I.E. VRB TO
LIGHT EAST IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND SOUTH IN NRN LOWER MICHIGAN).
THUS...WILL RELY SOLELY ON SYNOPTIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SNOWFALL
DURING THE DAY. STRONGEST LIFT VIA THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN...LEAVING OUR CWA IN A VERY MOIST
REGIME...WITH ONLY MODEST LIFT AS SURFACE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
FOCUS TO THE EAST COAST STORM. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS
AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ALL LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE SOME SNOWFALL
TODAY. MODEL QPF SUGGESTS A GENERAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH GOING
FORECAST. SNOW CONSISTENCY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WET AGAIN WITH HIGH
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30 FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...VERY COMPLEX LAKE ENHANCED SCENARIO BEGINS TO
EMERGE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CWA FURTHER SHARPENS
AS THE EAST COAST LOW DEEPENS AND THE 500 MB LOW BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PROVIDE STRONG
CONVERGENCE WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE A
SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN AREA OF SNOW LIKELY TARGETING LOCATIONS FROM THE
STRAITS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NW LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING.
SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW (NE TO N TO NW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA) WILL NOT LEND TO MUCH PRECONDITIONING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR (NE
FLOW) AND WILL ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF ERN UPR MICHIGAN FROM ANY LAKE
CONTRIBUTION. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SET UP ANY ORGANIZED HORIZONTAL
ROLE CONVECTION (LES BANDS) WITHIN THE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SNOW DUE
TO THE SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SOME TYPE OF ENHANCEMENT TO SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL. CERTAINLY LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR ENHANCEMENT...WITH DELTA TS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR
20 C...850-700 MB RH HOLDING AROUND 85 PCT AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
RISING TO ABOVE 10 KFT BY MIDNIGHT. GOOD LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS
COUPLED WITH FAIRLY STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL. ONE QUESTION REMAINS...WHERE???
THE BIG 5 COUNTIES ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN IS A DECENT FIRST
GUESS...BUT UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS DUE TO SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW BLURRING
THE WIND TRAJECTORY PICTURE AND SOME MODEL RUN-TO-RUN
INCONSISTENCIES (WRT EXACTLY WHEN SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EVOLVE
INTO A MORE CONSISTENT NW FLOW PATTERN). PREVIOUS MODEL RUN
SUGGESTED FLOW WILL SETTLE INTO NW FLOW LATE TONIGHT...BUT LATEST
RUN DELAYS THIS PROCESS UNTIL MID MORNING FRIDAY. AT THIS
POINT...WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR THE BIG 5
COUNTIES OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE HOPES THAT THE 12Z RUN WILL
SHED AT LEAST SOME LIGHT ON THE ABOVE-MENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES. STILL
EXPECT WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THESE COUNTIES...
ALTHOUGH SURROUNDING COUNTIES MAY VERY WELL SEE SOME HEAVIER BURST
OF SNOW DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW THE LOW LEVEL WINDS EVOLVE DURING
THE EVENT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...NW FLOW BECOMES FIRMLY LOCKED INTO THE CWA. STRONG
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL FLOW LEND TO A PURE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SITUATION. LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETERS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW... TARGETING THE FAVORED NW FLOW
AREAS OF ERN UPR AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN
AROUND -15 C (DELTA TS IN THE LOWER 20S)...900-700 MB RH STAYS
AROUND 70 PCT (BUT DOES BEING TO DRY LATE)...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
HOLD AROUND 8 KFT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS THESE FAVORED
SNOWBELT REGIONS.

&&

.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
       LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
       FRIDAY...MIZ019-021-022-027-028.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
404 AM EST THU DEC 1 2005

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-LSZ321-322-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-
LHZ345>349-021100-
ALCONA-ALPENA-ANTRIM-ARENAC-BENZIE-CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA-
CRAWFORD-EMMET-GLADWIN-GRAND TRAVERSE-IOSCO-KALKASKA-LEELANAU-
MACKINAC-MANISTEE-MISSAUKEE-MONTMORENCY-OGEMAW-OSCODA-OTSEGO-
PRESQUE ISLE-ROSCOMMON-WEXFORD...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT WATERS WITHIN
FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON...AND
LAKE SUPERIOR
404 AM EST THU DEC 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL MAY BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL AND SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...
MAINLY WEST OF I 75 AND BETWEEN M 32 AND M 72. SEE ONGOING WATCHES
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL MAY BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL SNOWBELT AREAS. SEE ONGOING
WATCHES FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD (ALL LOWER CASE)