Alert archive / Michigan / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2005

Lake Effect Snow Warning 5, NWS Gaylord, MI

December 5, 20054 counties in Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this lake effect snow warning at Dec 5, 2005, 4:30 AM EST for 4 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 56 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 5, 2005, 4:30 AM EST (09:30 UTC)
Expired
Dec 7, 2005, 12:00 PM EST
In force
56 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI

Counties Antrim County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Leelanau County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 00:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Alpena, MI at 00:00Z on 2005-12-05Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Alpena, MI at 00:00Z on 2005-12-05The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 99 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
591 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
99 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
143 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 050930
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
430 AM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW...

.COLD WESTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS TIP OF THE MITT
COUNTIES...NORTH OF M-32...AND WEST OF M-33.

MIZ016-017-019-052300-
/O.UPG.KAPX.LE.A.0002.051205T1700Z-051206T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.W.0005.051205T0930Z-051206T2300Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX
430 AM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY. THIS 
REPLACES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 
TUESDAY...WILL PRODUCE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 18 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EAST OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY...BY
TUESDAY EVENING.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ020-021-052300-
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0006.051205T0930Z-051206T1100Z/
LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA
430 AM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN SUTTONS BAY AND CENTRAL LAKE.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ018-022-052300-
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0006.051205T0930Z-051206T1100Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-OTSEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...GAYLORD
430 AM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 9 
INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF M-32
IN OTSEGO COUNTY...AND ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF PRESQUE ISLE
COUNTY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$
9 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 052045
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
345 PM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW...

.COLD WESTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES...NORTH OF M-32...AND WEST OF
M-33.

MIZ016-017-019-061045-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-051206T2300Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX
345 PM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 18 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE EAST OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY...BY TUESDAY EVENING.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ020-021-061045-
/O.EXT.KAPX.LE.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-051206T2300Z/
LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA
345 PM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN SUTTONS BAY AND CENTRAL LAKE.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ018-022-061045-
/O.EXT.KAPX.LE.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-051206T2300Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-OTSEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...GAYLORD
345 PM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
9 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF M-
32 IN OTSEGO COUNTY...AND ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF PRESQUE ISLE
COUNTY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 060036
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
736 PM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...

.SOUTHWESTERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE FROM THE
LEELANAU PENINSULA NORTH THROUGH THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SNOWBANDS IMPACTING
AREAS NORTH OF M-72.


MIZ018-022-060145-
/O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-051206T2300Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-OTSEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...GAYLORD
736 PM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
OTSEGO AND PRESQUE ISLE COUNTIES TONIGHT.

$$

MIZ016-017-019-061100-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-051206T2300Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PELLSTON...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX
736 PM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 18 INCHES BY TUESDAY EVENING.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ015-061100-
/O.EXB.KAPX.LE.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-051206T1100Z/
MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST IGNACE
736 PM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY. 

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT AREAS FROM
NAUBINWAY...EAST THROUGH ST IGNACE...AND OUT TOWARD CEDARVILLE.
ACCUMULATIONS FROM 4 TO AS MUCH AS 9 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ020-021-061100-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-051206T2300Z/
LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LELAND...BELLAIRE
736 PM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

JPB
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 060204
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
904 PM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...

.SOUTHWESTERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...
WHICH WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
FROM THE LEELANAU PENINSULA NORTH THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
MACKINAC. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
SNOWBANDS IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF M-72.

MIZ020-021-061100-
/O.UPG.KAPX.LE.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-051206T2300Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-051206T2300Z/
LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LELAND...BELLAIRE
904 PM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ016-017-019-061100-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-051206T2300Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PELLSTON...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX
904 PM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 18 INCHES BY TUESDAY EVENING.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ015-061100-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-051206T1100Z/
MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST IGNACE
904 PM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
TUESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
TUESDAY. 

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT AREAS FROM NAUBINWAY...
EAST THROUGH ST IGNACE...AND OUT TOWARD CEDARVILLE. ACCUMULATIONS
FROM 4 TO AS MUCH AS 9 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

JPB
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 060913
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
413 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TODAY...

.WESTERLY FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY.

MIZ015-061015-
/O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-051206T1100Z/
MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST. IGNACE
413 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCUMULATE 1 TO 3 INCHES TODAY...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE STRAITS AND CEDARVILLE.

$$

MIZ016-017-019>021-062300-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-051206T2300Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...
NORTHPORT...MANCELONA
413 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE A TOTAL
DAYTIME ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 10 INCHES TODAY...WITH LOCALLY GREATER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ022-062300-
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0007.051206T0913Z-051206T2300Z/
OTSEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GAYLORD
413 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING...AND TOTAL DAYTIME
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 5 INCHES TODAY. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL FALL NORTH OF M-32.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ025-062300-
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0007.051206T0913Z-051206T2300Z/
BENZIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FRANKFORT
413 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE A TOTAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5
INCHES TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF US-31.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 061657
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1157 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TODAY...

.WESTERLY FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY.

MIZ016-017-019>021-062300-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-051206T2300Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...
NORTHPORT...MANCELONA
1157 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE A TOTAL
DAYTIME ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 10 INCHES TODAY...WITH LOCALLY
GREATER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ022-062300-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-051206T2300Z/
OTSEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GAYLORD
1157 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE TOTAL DAYTIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
5 INCHES TODAY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL FALL NORTH OF M-32.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ025-062300-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-051206T2300Z/
BENZIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FRANKFORT
1157 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE A TOTAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO
5 INCHES TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF US-31.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 062049
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
349 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...

.COLD AIR COUPLED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

MIZ022-025-071100-
/O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-051206T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0008.051206T2300Z-051207T1100Z/
OTSEGO-BENZIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT
349 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE A TOTAL NIGHTTIME ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO
5 INCHES.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ016-017-019>021-071100-
/O.EXT.KAPX.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-051207T1100Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...
NORTHPORT...MANCELONA
349 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE A TOTAL
NIGHTTIME ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 7 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY
GREATER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ018-026-027-071100-
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0008.051206T2300Z-051207T1100Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA
349 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE A TOTAL NIGHTTIME ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO
5 INCHES.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ008-071100-
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0008.051206T2300Z-051207T1100Z/
CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE
349 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE A TOTAL NIGHTTIME ACCUMULATION OF UP TO
4 INCHES.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 070158
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
858 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...

.COLD AIR COUPLED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT.

MIZ018-022-025>027-070300-
/O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-051207T1100Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-OTSEGO-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...
TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA
858 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

$$

MIZ016-017-019>021-071100-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-051207T1100Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PELLSTON...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...
LELAND...BELLAIRE
858 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE A TOTAL
NIGHTTIME ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 7 INCHES TONIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ008-071100-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-051207T1100Z/
CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE MARIE
858 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE TOTAL NIGHTTIME ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW MAINLY ACROSS AREAS NEAR WHITEFISH
BAY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

JPB
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 070914
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
414 AM EST WED DEC 7 2005

...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...

.COLD AIR COUPLED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING.

MIZ016-017-071015-
/O.CAN.KAPX.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-051207T1100Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN
414 AM EST WED DEC 7 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL TOTAL AN INCH OR TWO AT
BEST. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

MIZ008-071015-
/O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-051207T1100Z/
CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE
414 AM EST WED DEC 7 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...NEW SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL TOTAL AN INCH OR LESS. THEREFORE...THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

$$

MIZ019>021-071700-
/O.EXT.KAPX.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-051207T1700Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA
414 AM EST WED DEC 7 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 071705
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1205 PM EST WED DEC 7 2005

MIZ019>021-071815-
/O.EXP.KAPX.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-051207T1700Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA
1205 PM EST WED DEC 7 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH JUST FLURRIES BY MID AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW
ENDS...ESPECIALLY OVER LEELANAU COUNTY.

$$
JK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Dec 5, 4:00 AM EST, 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 5, 4:00 AM EST, 30 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
400 AM EST MON DEC 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...850 MB TEMPS -14C TO -17C AND WEST FLOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN CONTINUED TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. 850-700 MB RH 50-60%
APPEARED TO BE LIMITING SNOW INTENSITY SOMEWHAT...AS DEPICTED BY
ONLY TRANSIENT/ISOLATED 28+ DBZ CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. ACROSS THE
EASTERN UP...BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WERE CLIPPING THE NORTHERN TIP OF
WHITEFISH POINT...OTHERWISE MOST SNOW SHOWERS HAD SHIFTED OUT OF THE
REGION. MEANWHILE...PER WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND ASSOCIATED SHIELD OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WERE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO...JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS
FEATURE WAS SWINGING S/SW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
W/WSW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BASIC PARAMETERS...CYCLONIC FLOW...LAKE-850 MB DELTA TS EXCEEDING
20C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS 4-5 KFT...EASILY ENCOMPASSING THE -10C TO
-20C LAYER...WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITHOUT ANY
SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION TO MOISTURE/ASCENT OR OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE ONGOING SCENARIO...LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 12
HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY FOR N LOWER
MICHIGAN COUNTIES FAVORED BY A W TO WSW FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER...
THE UPPER LOW NORTH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL ADVANCE SOUTH THEN EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE GFS/NAM DO NOT DEPICT ANY 700-500
MB QG FORCING TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS FEATURE WILL RAISE
INVERSION HEIGHTS AT LEAST INTO THE 6-7 KFT RANGE TONIGHT...AND
PROBABLY ABOVE 7 KFT TUESDAY. ALSO...MID LEVEL COOLING WILL RESULT
IN 850-700 MB DELTA TS INCREASING INTO THE 9-11C RANGE...SUPPORTING
DEEPER/MORE VIGOROUS HORIZONTAL ROLL CONVECTION. FURTHER...MID LEVEL
MOISTURE (AND UPSTREAM REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW N/NW OF THE LAKES)
SUGGESTS THAT SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES.
ALL TOLD...THE UPPER LOW WILL ALTER THE ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO
PRODUCE WARNING CRITERIA SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY (ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MEAN 850-700 MB RH STARTS TO INCREASE...TO AROUND 75%
BY 0Z) THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EVENT
CENTERS ON THE MEAN 1000-850 MB WIND DIRECTION...AND ON LAND BREEZE
INFLUENCES. OVERALL...THE GFS AND THE NAM SUGGEST THAT...IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...THE 1000-850 MB FLOW WILL
BACK TO SOME DEGREE FROM DUE WEST...PERHAPS TO WSW...THIS AFTERNOON
AND AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. GIVEN PRESSURE
FALLS/BACKING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE N MS
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING...THIS APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF BACKING...CRUCIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL ACROSS LEELANAU...ANTRIM...OTSEGO...PRESQUE ISLE AND
MACKINAC COUNTIES...REMAINS UNCLEAR. FOR COUNTIES ALREADY UNDER A
WATCH...CHARLEVOIX...EMMET AND CHEBOYGAN...FOR EITHER A W OF WSW LOW
LEVEL FLOW...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS JUSTIFIED FOR TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY (WILL STAR WARNING THIS MORNING GIVEN ONGOING SNOW
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH BEST ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL FOR START THIS
AFTERNOON). INTERESTINGLY...THE 0Z ETA12 SURFACE FORECAST DEPICTS
THE INTERESTING COMBINATION OF A PLUME OF SUBTLY WARMER AIR (THETA E
275-276K) AND MASS CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ACROSS EMMET/CHEBOYGAN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...PERHAPS SUGGESTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DOMINANT LES BAND ACROSS THAT AREA. FOR SURROUNDING
COUNTIES OF N LOWER MI ALREADY MENTIONED...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY IS JUSTIFIED FOR TODAY/TONIGHT (WILL NOT YET PUSH HEADLINES
INTO THE 3RD PERIOD...TO ALLOW SOME FLEXIBILITY FOR LATER CHANGES IF
NEEDED)...BUT CANNOT YET JUSTIFY WARNINGS FOR THESE COUNTIES...BASED
ON TYPICAL LIMITED COVERAGE OF HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS LEELANAU AND
ANTRIM COUNTIES (USUALLY LIMITED TO FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BOTH
COUNTIES) WITHIN W/WSW FLOW REGIME...AND DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR WSW
FLOW (AND PERHAPS LAND BREEZE COMPONENT) TO PUSH HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS
COMPLETELY OUT OF OTSEGO AND PRESQUE ISLE COUNTIES FOR OVER 50% OF
THE EVENT. HOWEVER...IF THE 1000-850 MB FLOW REMAINS DUE
WEST...GIVEN ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL OF UPPER LOW...LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO EXPAND WARNINGS FARTHER SOUTH/EAST INTO ADVISORY
COUNTIES...AND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY.

WHERE W/WSW FLOW REGIMES COINCIDE...ACROSS WARNING COUNTIES OF
CHARLEVOIX...EMMET AND CHEBOYGAN...COMBINATION OF OUTSTANDING
INSTABILITY...ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL...LONGEST FETCH LENGTH (100
MILES) AND RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION (LIKELY
CHANGING BY NO MORE THAN 20 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS) SUGGESTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPRESSIVE EVENT TOTAL SNOW SNOWFALL...PERHAPS
LOCALLY IN THE 1-2 FOOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY...BY TUESDAY EVENING.

MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE EASTERN UP...THE LAND BREEZE HAS ALREADY
PUSHED
LES BANDS NORTH OF WHITEFISH POINT...AND THIS REGIME SHOULD PERSIST
(AIDED BY BACKING WINDS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW) TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH...NEAR THE STRAITS...SCENARIO WILL STRADDLE A
FINE LINE BETWEEN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND FLURRIES...DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS...AND DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE LAND BREEZE. THIS FORECAST WILL ALLOW A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND ST IGNACE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FEEL THAT WEST FLOW AND COLD
INTERIOR TEMPS WILL ENHANCE THE LAND BREEZE...PUSHING MOST/ALL SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE STRAITS TONIGHT. THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES FOR MACKINAC COUNTY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AND
LIFT TOWARD THE NE...PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD PRODUCE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...ACROSS THE
EASTERN UP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH OF
THE STRAITS AND INTERACTS WITH ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...AN
INTENSE BAND OF SNOW MAY SETTLE SOUTH AND MAY PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES
OF NEW SNOW ACROSS MANY N/W COUNTIES OF N LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THEN...IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TOWARD THE N/NNE ACROSS THE EASTERN UP/FAR N
LOWER MI...PUSHING MOST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OUT OF THAT
REGION...AND TOWARD THE NNW/N ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...SUPPORTING
LES SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF US-131. HOWEVER...COLD TEMPS/LAND BREEZE IN
THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY PUSH THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE LM
COAST...OR EVEN OFFSHORE...SO THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IN WAKE OF FROPA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT.

NO CHANGES TO FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...AS THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWER REGIME SHOULD PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY.

ROWLEY

&&

.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...
        TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MIZ016-017-019.
       LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...TODAY AND
        TONIGHT...MIZ018-020>022.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 4, 10:54 PM EST, 5 hours 36 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1054 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2005

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-LSZ321-322-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-
LHZ345>349-051100-
ALCONA-ALPENA-ANTRIM-ARENAC-BENZIE-CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA-
CRAWFORD-EMMET-GLADWIN-GRAND TRAVERSE-IOSCO-KALKASKA-LEELANAU-
MACKINAC-MANISTEE-MISSAUKEE-MONTMORENCY-OGEMAW-OSCODA-OTSEGO-
PRESQUE ISLE-ROSCOMMON-WEXFORD...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT WATERS WITHIN
FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON...AND
LAKE SUPERIOR
1054 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND PARADISE AND
WHITEFISH POINT IN EXTREME NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM ANTRIM AND OTSEGO
COUNTIES NORTH TO THE STRAITS...MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
SEE ONGOING WATCHES FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...PLEASE RELAY SNOWFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD (ALL LOWER CASE)

ADAM/AJS/JPB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 5, 4:30 AM ESTLake Effect Snow AdvisoryAPXAntrim, Leelanau, Otsego, Presque Isle24 hr

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Warnings in Michigan, 2005Every lake effect snow warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.