Alert archive / Michigan / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2005
Lake Effect Snow Warning 2, NWS Gaylord, MI
NWS Gaylord, MI issued this lake effect snow warning at Nov 25, 2005, 7:17 PM EST for 4 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 9 days. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 25, 2005, 7:17 PM EST (00:17 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 5, 2005, 4:30 AM EST
- In force
- 9 days
- Issued by
- NWS Gaylord, MI
Counties Cheboygan County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 221 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 854 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 67 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -15 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 80 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WWUS43 KAPX 260017 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 717 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TONIGHT... .VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...PRODUCING ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES TONIGHT. MIZ016-017-260900- /O.UPG.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051126T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KAPX.LE.W.0002.051126T0017Z-051126T0900Z/ EMMET-CHEBOYGAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN 717 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...WILL RESULT IN A TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 9 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF M-68. MOST OF THIS SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BY MIDNIGHT. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ015-019-260500- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051126T0500Z/ MACKINAC-CHARLEVOIX- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. IGNACE...CHARLEVOIX 717 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING...WILL RESULT IN A TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. MOST OF THIS SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BY MIDNIGHT. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ MIZ020-025-031-260900- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051126T0900Z/ LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...MANISTEE 717 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW...WILL RESULT IN A TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$
9 follow-up statements
000 WWUS43 KAPX 260356 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1056 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT... .COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MIZ016-017-260900- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051126T0900Z/ EMMET-CHEBOYGAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN 1056 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL RESULT IN A TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NORTH OF M-68. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ008-260900- /O.EXA.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051126T0900Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 1056 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW...WILL RESULT IN A TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS LAKE HURON COASTAL AREAS...INCLUDING M-134...DE TOUR VILLAGE AND DRUMMOND ISLAND. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ MIZ015-019-260900- /O.EXT.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051126T0900Z/ MACKINAC-CHARLEVOIX- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. IGNACE...CHARLEVOIX 1056 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING...WILL RESULT IN A TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS AROUND ST IGNACE. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ MIZ020-025-031-260900- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051126T0900Z/ LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...MANISTEE 1056 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW...WILL RESULT IN A TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$
000 WWUS43 KAPX 260445 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1145 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT... .COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MIZ016-017-260900- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051126T0900Z/ EMMET-CHEBOYGAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN 1145 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL RESULT IN A TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NORTH OF M-68. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ008-260900- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051126T0900Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 1145 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW...WILL RESULT IN A TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS LAKE HURON COASTAL AREAS...INCLUDING M-134...DE TOUR VILLAGE AND DRUMMOND ISLAND. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ MIZ015-019-260900- /O.EXT.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051126T0900Z/ MACKINAC-CHARLEVOIX- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. IGNACE...CHARLEVOIX 1145 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING...WILL RESULT IN A TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS AROUND ST IGNACE... AND ON BEAVER ISLAND. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ MIZ020-025-031-260900- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051126T0900Z/ LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...MANISTEE 1145 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW...WILL RESULT IN A TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$
000 WWUS43 KAPX 260606 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 106 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT... .COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MIZ020-031-260900- /O.UPG.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051126T0900Z/ /O.EXA.KAPX.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051126T0900Z/ LEELANAU-MANISTEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...MANISTEE 106 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW...WILL RESULT IN A TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 8 INCHES IN MANISTEE COUNTY AND 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN LEELANAU COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. THESE HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALMOST ENTIRELY RESIDE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ016-017-260900- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051126T0900Z/ EMMET-CHEBOYGAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN 106 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL RESULT IN A TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NORTH OF M-68. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ008-015-019-025-260900- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051126T0900Z/ CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-CHARLEVOIX-BENZIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE... CHARLEVOIX...FRANKFORT 106 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING...WILL RESULT IN A TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS AROUND ST IGNACE...AND ON BEAVER ISLAND. THESE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL ALMOST ENTIRELY RESIDE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES OF LAKES HURON AND MICHIGAN. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$
000 WWUS43 KAPX 260910 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 410 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER... .LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. BY AFTERNOON...ONLY SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN MACKINAC COUNTY. MIZ017-020-031-261015- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051126T0900Z/ CHEBOYGAN-LEELANAU-MANISTEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...NORTHPORT...MANISTEE 410 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE MORNING. THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS...RESULTING IN MORNING ACCUMULATIONS THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED AN INCH. $$ MIZ008-015-025-261015- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051126T0900Z/ CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-BENZIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE... FRANKFORT 410 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. THERE WILL HOWEVER...BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINES OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON AT TIMES TODAY. $$ MIZ016-261500- /O.EXT.KAPX.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051126T1500Z/ EMMET- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...PETOSKEY 410 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORLINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 7 TO 13 INCHES. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING...AND MOVE OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ019-261500- /O.EXT.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051126T1500Z/ CHARLEVOIX- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHARLEVOIX 410 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND OUT OF ALL OF CHARLEVOIX COUNTY EXCEPT FOR AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE. ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...BEAVER ISLAND CAN EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$
000 WWUS43 KAPX 261113 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 613 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS ENDING... .LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND MACKINAC COUNTY OF EASTERN UPPER. THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MIGRATED OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. MIZ016-261215- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051126T1500Z/ EMMET- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...PETOSKEY 613 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. $$ MIZ019-261215- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051126T1500Z/ CHARLEVOIX- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHARLEVOIX 613 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. BEAVER ISLAND MAY STILL SEE A FEW BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TODAY...WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH. $$
000 WWUS43 KAPX 041056 CCA WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 545 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2005 MIZ019-041700- /O.COR.KAPX.LE.A.0002.051205T1700Z-051206T2300Z/ /O.COR.KAPX.LE.W.0004.000000T0000Z-051204T1700Z/ CHARLEVOIX- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHARLEVOIX 545 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING AND PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. IF PLANNING TO TRAVEL...BE AWARE OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND PLAN AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF NEEDED. $$ MIZ008-041700- /O.COR.KAPX.LE.W.0004.000000T0000Z-051204T1700Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 545 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE WHITEFISH BAY VICINITY... PARTICULARLY AROUND PARADISE AND WHITEFISH POINT WHERE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. IN ADDITION...WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING AND PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ021-022-027-028-041700- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0004.000000T0000Z-051204T1700Z/ ANTRIM-OTSEGO-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...KALKASKA... GRAYLING 545 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...BUT TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES SINCE SATURDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ020-025-026-041700- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0004.000000T0000Z-051204T1700Z/ LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY 545 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...BUT TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 8 INCHES SINCE SATURDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ016-041700- /O.COR.KAPX.LE.A.0002.051205T1700Z-051206T2300Z/ /O.COR.KAPX.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-051204T1700Z/ EMMET- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...PETOSKEY 545 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...BUT TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES SINCE SATURDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. IF PLANNING TO TRAVEL...BE AWARE OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND PLAN AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF NEEDED. $$ MIZ017-050030- /O.COR.KAPX.LE.A.0002.051205T1700Z-051206T2300Z/ CHEBOYGAN- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHEBOYGAN 545 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEW TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ONLY A FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND SNOWFALL CAN VARY GREATLY...IMPACTING TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. $$
000 WWUS43 KAPX 041646 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1146 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2005 MIZ019-050700- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.W.0004.000000T0000Z-051204T1700Z/ /O.CON.KAPX.LE.A.0002.051205T1700Z-051206T2300Z/ CHARLEVOIX- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHARLEVOIX 1146 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS SINCE LAST EVENING HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ONLY A FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND SNOWFALL CAN VARY GREATLY...IMPACTING TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. $$ MIZ008-020>022-025>028-041800- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.W.0004.000000T0000Z-051204T1700Z/ CHIPPEWA-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA- CRAWFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...NORTHPORT... MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA... GRAYLING 1146 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. ACCUMULATIONS SINCE LAST EVENING HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS AND BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY. $$ MIZ016-050700- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-051204T1700Z/ /O.CON.KAPX.LE.A.0002.051205T1700Z-051206T2300Z/ EMMET- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...PETOSKEY 1146 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS SINCE LAST EVENING HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ONLY A FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND SNOWFALL CAN VARY GREATLY...IMPACTING TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. $$ MIZ017-050700- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.A.0002.051205T1700Z-051206T2300Z/ CHEBOYGAN- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHEBOYGAN 1146 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEW TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ONLY A FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND SNOWFALL CAN VARY GREATLY...IMPACTING TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. $$
000 WWUS43 KAPX 042109 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 409 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2005 MIZ016-017-019-051100- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.A.0002.051205T1700Z-051206T2300Z/ EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX 409 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ONLY A FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND SNOWFALL CAN VARY GREATLY...IMPACTING TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. $$
000 WWUS43 KAPX 050930 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 430 AM EST MON DEC 5 2005 ...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW... .COLD WESTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES...NORTH OF M-32...AND WEST OF M-33. MIZ016-017-019-052300- /O.UPG.KAPX.LE.A.0002.051205T1700Z-051206T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KAPX.LE.W.0005.051205T0930Z-051206T2300Z/ EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX 430 AM EST MON DEC 5 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY. THIS REPLACES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL PRODUCE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 18 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EAST OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY...BY TUESDAY EVENING. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ020-021-052300- /O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0006.051205T0930Z-051206T1100Z/ LEELANAU-ANTRIM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA 430 AM EST MON DEC 5 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN SUTTONS BAY AND CENTRAL LAKE. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ MIZ018-022-052300- /O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0006.051205T0930Z-051206T1100Z/ PRESQUE ISLE-OTSEGO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...GAYLORD 430 AM EST MON DEC 5 2005 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF M-32 IN OTSEGO COUNTY...AND ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Nov 25, 7:15 PM EST, 2 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 25, 7:15 PM EST, 2 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
715 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005
.UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT HAS TRANSITIONED TO A SHORT FUSE
EVENT...WITHIN THE PAST 10 MINUTES RECEIVED A REPORT OF 5 INCHES OF
SNOW DURING PAST 3 HOURS IN BRUTUS...IN EMMET COUNTY NEAR THE
CHEBOYGAN COUNTY LINE...WITHIN A PERSISTENT BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL EMMET INTO W CENTRAL/NW CHEBOYGAN COUNTY. THUS...UPGRADED
THESE COUNTIES TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. WEAKENING/BACKING
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LAND BREEZE INFLUENCE MAY CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO
FOCUS OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD PRODUCE WARNING CRITERIA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY
MIDNIGHT.
ROWLEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 412 PM EST FRI NOV 25
DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WINTER LIKE DAY TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
WITH CONTINUED LAKE GENERATED SNOW SHOWERS. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MILDER AND
RAINY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. IN THE MEANTIME...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVING
AROUND THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL SNOW.
TONIGHT...MEAN SURFACE-850 MB FLOW (WHICH STEERS THE ORIENTATION OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS) CONTINUES TO BE IN TRANSITION AND IS NOW WSW
WITH CONTINUED BACKING TO THE SW THIS EVENING AND SSW BY 12Z
SATURDAY. APX 88D INDICATES THAT LAKE EFFECT HAS BECOME CELLULAR IN
NATURE DUE TO DIURNAL DISRUPTION. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY NOT BE A
FACTOR THIS EVENING SO LAKE BANDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REORGANIZE. DUE
TO THE CHANGE IN STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY
IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG 5 OF NORTHERN LOWER TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MEAN 900-700 MB RH BETWEEN 80 AND 85
PERCENT. LAKE-850 MB DELTA TS ALSO LOOK GOOD (LOWER 20S DROPPING TO
AROUND 20 OVERNIGHT) AS DO INVERSION HEIGHTS AT BETWEEN 6000 AND
7000 FEET. WE ALSO HAVE SOME LIFT IN THE FORM QG FORCING AS A SHORT
WAVE (EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP) MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH ALL
THIS IN MIND WILL HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY FOR MANISTEE...BENZIE AND LEELANAU COUNTIES WITH 2 TO 5
INCHES OF ACCUMUATION EXPECTED. WITH THE WSW FLOW THIS
EVENING...EMMET COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME DECENT BANDS THIS
EVENING WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED SO WILL RUN AN ADVISORY UP
THERE. ELSEWHERE AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...MOISTURE IS NOT AS GOOD (MEAN 900-700 MB RH
60 TO 65 PERCENT) AND QG FORCING REMAINS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER. THEREFORE...LITTLE ACCUMUATION IS EXPECTED EXPECT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE LOCALLY UP TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING TOO MUCH TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.
SATURDAY...THE TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INCREASING RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. MEAN 900-700 MB
MOISTURE HANGS ON TO START THE DAY BUT DROPS OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT BY 18Z. OVER
LAKE INSTABILITY ALSO WANES WITH LAKE-850 MB DELTA TS DROPPING FROM
NEAR 20 AT 12Z TO ABOUT 12 BY 00Z SUNDAY. THEREFORE...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE AS THE FLOW STARTS THE DAY OUT OF THE SSW. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE
MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES AWAY TO OUR EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE
30S.
SULLIVAN
LATER PERIODS...UPPER TROFFING OVER THE NE US WILL GET PUSHED
NORTHWARD INTO CANADA...AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS INDUCED AHEAD OF A
PAIR OF SYSTEMS IN THE WEST. THE 1ST OF THESE...AN UPPER LOW NOW IN
NORTHERN MEXICO...WILL MINOR OUT AS IT EJECTS NE INTO A BUILDING
RIDGE AXIS...REACHING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LAKES LATE SUNDAY.
PACIFIC ENERGY MAKING LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER...CONGEALING INTO AN UPPER LOW IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY. DEEP...WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME DRASTIC CHANGES IN OUR WX BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIP TIMING/TYPE BEGINNING SUNDAY ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
MODELS...GIVEN THAT THE BIG PLAYER IS JUST COMING ASHORE...NAM/GFS
ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT. NAM IS A TOUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN IOWA BY MONDAY MORNING...BUT IT/S A MINOR
DIFFERENCE. NAM IS ALSO A MORE EMPHATIC WITH WARMING IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW FOR SUNDAY...WILL FAVOR A COMPROMISE SOLUTION FOR NOW.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SSE 1000-850MB FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOWER ST LAWRENCE...AND LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL AS TYPICAL
GET SQUASHED IN WARM ADVECTION...DROPPING FROM 5K FEET BELOW 3K
FEET. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING SOUTH OF
SUGAR ISLAND/EAST OF ST IGNACE FOR SE FLOW LAKE EFFECT OFF OF
HURON...BUT WITH WINDS BACKING AND 850MB TEMPS RAPIDLY WARMING
(NEARING 0C BY DAYBREAK) WILL GO PRECIP FREE OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS AND
SOME MID CLOUD WILL INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT...BUT WITH SYNOPTIC
PRECIP STILL DOWNSTATE AT BEST BY DAYBREAK. THE LOW LEVELS START TO
GET SOUPY VERY LATE (NEAR SATURATION BELOW 800MB BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z). CONCEIVABLY COULD SEE STRATUS/DRIZZLE/FOG JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK...FOR NOW WILL PUSH THOSE CONCERNS BACK TO SUNDAY. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE ACHIEVED EARLY...WITH STEADY TO RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT (295K/300K) WILL ARRIVE FROM
SOUTH...RAPIDLY SATURATING THE AIRMASS THRU A DEEP LAYER. PRECIP
WILL INEVITABLY FOLLOW...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-32 IN THE MORNING...
COVERING THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO LIKELY
POPS...CATEGORICAL PRECIP IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE IN ORDER PRETTY
SOON. STRONG ADVECTION IS OCCURRING AT ALL LEVELS...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 700 AND 900MB. STRONG WARM NOSE HERE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
CHANCE OF SNOW...AND SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO BE COMFORTABLY ABOVE
FREEZING BY PRECIP ONSET. WILL KEEP THINGS ALL LIQUID. STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE PRECEDING RAIN BY A FEW
HOURS...IT/S A MINOR ISSUE AND WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. FOG
WILL ALSO RESULT AS DEW POINTS NEARING 40 COME ACROSS THE SNOW PACK.
MAX TEMPS WILL NEAR 40 IN EASTERN UPPER...INTO THE 40S IN NORTHERN
LOWER.
REST OF THE FORECAST...LARGE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES REGION IN THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD RISE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT-
INDUCED RAIN LIKELY...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY MONDAY AS WRAPPED-UP
COLD FRONT GOES THRU. NOT MUCH OF A COLD BLAST...NEW AIRMASS IS
LARGELY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MIXED SHOWERS
AROUND ON TUESDAY AS DEEP UPPER TROF AND CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND
PRECIP CHANGE TO MAINLY SNOW AT THAT POINT.
EVOLUTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM BEYOND THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...
WITH THE 06Z GFS SHOWING A POCKET OF ARCTIC ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH
INTO THE REGION FOR MID/LATE WEEK. ECMWF REPRESENTS A SUITE OF
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS BETTER...WITH MORE TROFFING IN THE WEST AND
FLATTER...CONVERGENT 500MB FLOW IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY.
THERE SHOULD STILL BE PERSISTENT SURFACE TROFFING AND A SEASONABLY
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. THAT AND CLIMATOLOGY ARGUES FOR A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE START OF DECEMBER.
ZOLTOWSKI
&&
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...
UNTIL 4 AM SAT...MIZ016-017.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...UNTIL MIDNIGHT...MIZ015-019.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 AM SAT...MIZ020-025-031.
&&Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 25, 4:40 PM EST, 2 hours 37 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 440 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005 MIZ008-015>036-041-042-LSZ321-322-LMZ323-341-342-344-345- LHZ345>349-261100- ALCONA-ALPENA-ANTRIM-ARENAC-BENZIE-CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA- CRAWFORD-EMMET-GLADWIN-GRAND TRAVERSE-IOSCO-KALKASKA-LEELANAU- MACKINAC-MANISTEE-MISSAUKEE-MONTMORENCY-OGEMAW-OSCODA-OTSEGO- PRESQUE ISLE-ROSCOMMON-WEXFORD...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON...AND LAKE SUPERIOR 440 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SEE ONGOING ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS...PLEASE RELAY SNOWFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD (ALL LOWER CASE) SMD/AJS
Nearby
Lake Effect Snow Warnings in Michigan, 2005Every lake effect snow warning in 2005
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.