Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
315 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...
OH WHAT AN AFTERNOON...GOT AWIPS BACK FROM THE DX UPGRADE IN TIME FOR
THE SEVERE STORMS OVER THE TX AND OK PNHDLS.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAS PUSHED INTO NW OK/SRN KS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL HOLDING ON TO THE SRN END OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS. WILL LIKELY SEE ACTIVITY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ACTIVITY CONFINED TO ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM HOBBES NM TO SHAMROCK. FRONT
MEANDERS AROUND THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. RESTRUCTURED POPS GRIDS QUITE A BIT TODAY AND TOMORROW AND
WILL LIKELY TWEAK WITH THEM UP TO ISSUANCE TIME OF TEXT PRODUCTS TO
REFLECT MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF FRONT. ANOTHER PUSH ON THE FRONT
WILL TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND THIS COULD GET
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO FORM...MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN AND SRN PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLE. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMP/WIND/SKY GRIDS FOR NEXT 48 HOURS TO
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT EXPECTED CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND TIMING OF THE
FRONT.

WEAK S/W RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY AS FERN PUSHES THROUGH...BUT
NWLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHICH WILL HELP TO DRAG S/W THROUGH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  MODELS HAVE HINTED AT THIS LAST SEVERAL RUNS
SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  UPSLOPE FLOW
TAKES PLACE DURING DAY SUNDAY HELPING TO KEEP RECYCLED MOISTURE IN
PLACE...JUST ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY GIVE US A SHOT AT PRECIP.  RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK HELPING
TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP ONCE AGAIN.  MODELS DIFFER WITH STRENGTH OF
RIDGE AND TIMING OF NEXT TROF TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
WEEK.  HELD EXTENDED PORTION OF THE GRIDS/FCST IN CHECK WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

FCSTID = JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                53  79  47  71 /  30  30  30  20
BEAVER OK                  56  73  47  76 /  40  30  30  20
BOISE CITY OK              47  71  44  73 /  10  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  55  77  50  74 /  30  30  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              50  78  46  74 /  20  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  54  80  47  72 /  30  30  30  20
CLARENDON TX               60  80  51  73 /  50  30  30  20
DALHART TX                 47  75  45  72 /  10  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  53  72  46  75 /  20  20  20  20
HEREFORD TX                53  80  48  71 /  20  30  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                59  74  49  74 /  50  30  30  20
PAMPA TX                   58  77  51  72 /  50  30  30  20
SHAMROCK TX                61  79  52  74 /  50  40  40  20
WELLINGTON TX              61  80  52  76 /  50  40  40  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FOR BEAVER
     COUNTY.
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FOR
     HANSFORD...OCHILTREE...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...HUTCHINSON...
     ROBERTS...HEMPHILL...POTTER...CARSON...GRAY...WHEELER...DEAF
     SMITH...RANDALL...ARMSTRONG...DONLEY COUNTY.
     TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY.

&&

09/10/17

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
412 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-131100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
412 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
FOLLETT TO BOOTLEG LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM THE JET-STREAM INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE PANHANDLES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD BE READY FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SCHNEIDER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
655 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HAIL             6 SW AMARILLO           35.14N 101.89W
05/12/2005  2.75 INCH        RANDALL            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RTW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
656 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             AMARILLO                35.20N 101.82W
05/12/2005  0.75 INCH        POTTER             TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORTED AT THE CIVIC CENTER IN DOWNTOWN AMARILLO

&&

KJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
657 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     HAIL             2 S AMARILLO            35.17N 101.82W
05/12/2005  1.50 INCH        RANDALL            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF DUTY NWS REPORTED PING PONG BALL HAIL AT 34TH AND
            COULTER

&&

JJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
658 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     HAIL             5 W AMARILLO            35.20N 101.91W
05/12/2005  1.75 INCH        POTTER             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMB