Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR SVR TSTM WATCH 190 AND RADAR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005

.DISCUSSION...
STILL TRYING TO RECOVER FROM LAST NIGHTS SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT.  DRYLINE
HAS NOT MIXED AS FAR EAST AS MODELS HAVE DEPICTED AND ALREADY
STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  DID BUMP UP POPS TO 30 PERCENT ALL AREAS AND ADDED
MENTION OF SEVERE ALL AREAS.  MORE CLEARING NOW THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY AND MODELS STILL HAVE GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION.
SHEAR PROFILE IS NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL ENOUGH
TO GET SOME OF THE STORMS TO ORGANIZE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW
THINGS GO AND WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ROUTINE PRODUCTS UNTIL LAST
MINUTE IN CASE ANY WATCHES GET ISSUED.  OTHERWISE...GRIDS/FCST FOR
OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH
LITTLE OR NO CHANGES.

DID BUMP UP TEMPS MIDWEEK AS MODELS STILL INDICATING FLOW WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST KEEPING THINGS A BIT WARMER AS OPPOSED TO
BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE ABOUT POP
CHANCES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY AND SCOUR OUT MOISTURE TO THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.  dGut/dT RIGHT NOW IS
NEUTRAL...MEANING THAT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HOLD A BIT FURTHER
WEST THAN MODELS HAVE DEPICTED BUT WILL HOLD OF MAKING MAJOR CHANGES.
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE/TROF/DISCONTINUITY SETS UP WILL LIKELY
DETERMINE WHERE BEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATER IN THE WEEK.  DEALING
WITH AWIPS ISSUES HAS PREVENTED DETAILED ANALYSIS FOR EXTENDED GRIDS
SO LEFT ALONE FOR NOW.

FYI...RADAR PART HAS ARRIVED AND WE WILL BE RUNNING SHORTLY.  WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT AND MAKE SURE CALIBRATIONS ARE CORRECT...
BUT WSR-88D SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO WITHIN THE HOUR.

FCSTID = JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                79  50  81  51 /  30  30  20  20
BEAVER OK                  81  53  84  52 /  30  30  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              79  45  80  46 /  30  30  20  20
BORGER TX                  81  50  83  51 /  30  30  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              81  48  82  47 /  30  30  20  20
CANYON TX                  81  51  82  50 /  30  30  20  20
CLARENDON TX               79  54  83  55 /  30  30  20  20
DALHART TX                 79  47  79  46 /  30  30  20  20
GUYMON OK                  82  49  82  49 /  30  30  20  20
HEREFORD TX                81  49  82  48 /  30  30  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                79  54  84  54 /  30  30  30  30
PAMPA TX                   78  52  82  54 /  30  30  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                79  56  83  55 /  40  40  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              79  58  82  56 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 190 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT FOR
     TEXAS AND BEAVER COUNTIES.
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 190 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT FOR
     SHERMAN...HANSFORD...OCHILTREE...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     HUTCHINSON...ROBERTS...HEMPHILL...OLDHAM...POTTER...CARSON...
     GRAY...WHEELER...DEAF SMITH...RANDALL...ARMSTRONG...DONLEY...AND
     COLLINGSWORTH.

&&

03/17

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
231 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-191100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
231 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.

ALSO...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THUS...CAUTION IS
ADVISED ON AREA LAKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

COCKRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
704 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     HAIL             6 S CLARENDON           34.85N 100.89W
04/18/2005  0.88 INCH        DONLEY             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED NICKLE HAIL ONGOING FOR AT LEAST 10
            MINUTES.

&&

JJB

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