Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
130 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
HAVE TRIED TO GET GOING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THESE SEEM TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE MID LEVEL VORT LOBE ROTATING
EAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLES NOW. MOST OF THE CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA
WILL PROBABLY BE ELEVATED WITH THE VORT LOBE. MORE STORMS OVER
THE NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO MOUNTAINS SHOULD ROTATE THIS DIRECTION
THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT BECOMING
SEVERE SINCE THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER MID LEVEL
WINDS AND THEY WILL BE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING MOISTURE AND A LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEARS OUR AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN TO HELP
SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...
HOW STRONG THEY GET WILL BE A FUNCTION ON HOW MUCH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL OCCUR OVER OUR AREA. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE ON MONDAY
AS PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

THE DRYLINE MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT MIXING EASTWARD ON TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SURFACE
WINDS TEND TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO ONLY MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY
AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY ONE SOLUTION.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION DDC AND LUB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  77  50  77 /  50  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                  54  75  53  75 /  80  30  30  20
BOISE CITY OK              48  76  45  74 /  80  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  54  80  50  79 /  60  30  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              52  80  48  80 /  50  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  52  79  50  78 /  50  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               56  75  54  75 /  50  30  30  20
DALHART TX                 49  77  47  75 /  70  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  54  80  49  76 /  80  30  30  20
HEREFORD TX                53  80  49  79 /  40  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                56  75  55  74 /  80  30  30  20
PAMPA TX                   55  75  52  75 /  60  30  30  20
SHAMROCK TX                57  76  56  77 /  60  30  30  20
WELLINGTON TX              57  76  58  78 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

17/15

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1253 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-181100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
1253 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION.  THESE TWO ITEMS WILL COMBINE TO
PROVIDING THE LIFT AND INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.  A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STORMS IN NEW MEXICO WILL
THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES LATER THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A SERIES OF MINOR UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...COMBINING
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO HELP TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE ESPECIALLY
ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD BE READY FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

JORDAN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>