Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Albany, NY

000 
WWUS51 KALY 302127
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
526 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2005

NYC039-302136-
/O.EXP.KALY.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-050530T2130Z/
GREENE NY-
526 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY 
EXPIRES AT 530 PM EDT...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4241 7416 4246 7378 4244 7378 4239 7380
      4239 7379 4230 7378 4228 7379 4224 7384
      4238 7419

$$

GJM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  LATEST RADAR PICTURE
SHOWING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA AND NOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA.  THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.  THE BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY
TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.  THIS COULD HELP TRIGGER SOME MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.  THERE HAVE BEEN VARIOUS REPORTS OF
PEA SIZE HAIL ACROSS WARREN COUNTY AND SARATOGA COUNTIES.  OVERALL
USING A VIL O DAY OF AROUND 34 FOR SEVERE CATEGORY HAIL.  THE
CLOSEST WE CAME TO THIS VALUE WAS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN WARREN
COUNTY.  WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWARD AND THE CURRENT
RADAR STILL SHOWING DECENT ACTIVITY...WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.  WILL ALSO ENHANCE
THE WORDING AND THE GRIDS TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF SMALL HAIL.  ON
TUESDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.  BY THE AFTERNOON...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A
REPEAT OF TODAYS ACTIVITY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE
SUPPORT ALOFT.  BOTTOM LINE...WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS
AND FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE START OF THE DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STAY ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST. WENT CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SUMMER
LIKE TEMPERATURES BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND EXITS IT OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND.  THIS WILL BRING MILDER AIR AND DRY WEATHER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL ABOUT 23Z. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
LOCAL AREAS IFR IN FOG VICINITY KGFL BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REFORM TOMORROW AFTERNOON. &&

.HYDROLOGY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TODAY HAVE PRODUCED LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES IN SOME
PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TACONICS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. WHILE THE RAINFALL HAS NOT BEEN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BASINWIDE AVERAGES OVER 2 INCHES...THIS HAS
MOISTENED THE GROUND CONSIDERABLY IN THESE AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH
FROM THE SHOWERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. RIVERS...STREAMS... CREEKS AND RESERVOIRS WILL REMAIN WELL
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW
AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2005

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-311100-
BENNINGTON VT-EASTERN ALBANY NY-EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-
EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-EASTERN GREENE NY-EASTERN RENSSELAER NY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY NY-EASTERN ULSTER NY-EASTERN WINDHAM VT-
HAMILTON NY-MONTGOMERY NY-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-NORTHERN FULTON NY-
NORTHERN HERKIMER NY-NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-
NORTHERN WARREN NY-NORTHERN WASHINGTON NY-SCHOHARIE NY-
SOUTHEAST WARREN NY-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-SOUTHERN FULTON NY-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER NY-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-SOUTHERN SARATOGA NY-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON NY-WESTERN ALBANY NY-WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-
WESTERN DUTCHESS NY-WESTERN GREENE NY-WESTERN RENSSELAER NY-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY NY-WESTERN ULSTER NY-WESTERN WINDHAM VT-
406 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING DUE TO AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM...WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
AT ABOUT 20 MILES AN HOUR.  DUE TO COOL AIR ALOFT...THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS FAIRLY LOW...INCREASING THE PROBABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCATTERED...NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.