Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EST SUN NOV 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...STRONG SUMMER LIKE
CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE ACROSS WESTERN NY AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL NY
AS OF 330 PM. THE SYNOPTIC LOW PRODUCING THIS LINE IS MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE HURON AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY MONDAY. COLD FRONT JUST BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...EVEN AS IT MOVES
INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME WEAKENING OF THE LINE LIKELY AS WE LOSE DIRNAL
HEATING AT SUNSET...BUT EXPECT SOME SEVERE CONVECTION TO MAKE IT
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACORSS
THE WESTERN ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING FOR SHWRS/TSTMS...ALONG WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYNOPTIC WINDS APPEARS
LESS TODAY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER OUR
AREA EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE FORECAST WINDS BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY LONGER
TERM WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

FRONT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH POPS RAPIDLY
DECREASING LATE THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY WEATHER FOR
MOST AREAS MONDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC...AND HAVE ONLY
FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST.

WEAK SECONDARY TROF MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT NO
PCPN FROM IT...BUT HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AFTER THAT AND KEEPS US
DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG LOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THIS PERIOD OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND MOVE TO NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA BY THURSDAY.
ASSOCIATED WARM AND THEN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL KEEP THE AREA
UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM ENOUGH ONCE AGAIN FOR
RAIN SHOWERS TO BE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.

CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY
AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. GFS FLIP-FLOPPING QUITE
A BIT FOR SUNDAY. 00Z/06Z GFS RUNS HAD A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE
LOW AFFECTING OUR AREA SUNDAY...BUT 12Z RUN HAD A LARGE HIGH OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST ORIGINALLY BASED ON THE EARLIER RUNS SO
HAVE OPTED NOT TO MAKE ANY REVISIONS BASED ON SUCH A LARGE MODEL
CHANGE THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS OUR WARNING AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z-05Z. THE FIRST LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL AHEAD OF IT IS WEAKENING AND WILL PRODUCE NO
MORE THAN SOME HIT AND MISS LIGHT SHOWERS AS LIMPS ACROSS OUR REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SECOND LINE IS THE MORE PROBLEMATIC
ONE...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS COULD
PRODUCE SQUALLY RAINS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. IN THE 18Z TAFS...WE HAVE KEPT
WIND GUSTS IN THE 25KT RANGE FOR NOW. AFTER THE FRONT...LOOK FOR
SOME INITIAL QUICK CLEARING AND GOOD VISIBILITY. ENOUGH OF A BREEZE
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE VFR CEILINGS NORTH OF KPOU BY EARLY MONDAY. THE
WIND...RELAXING FOR A LITTLE BIT OVERNIGHT AFTER THE INITIAL PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT...WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WNW AFTER SUNRISE
MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS PERHAPS A FEW STRONGER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. TONIGHTS POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER
LOOKS TO MOVE QUICKLY AND ONLY PRODUCE ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL ON AVERAGE WITH MAYBE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN TAKES PLACE LATER
ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THAT DISTURBANCE MIGHT MOVE
SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...PROJECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FALL WELL SHORT
OF PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES ON STREAMS...LET ALONE ANY
FLOODING.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
405 PM EST SUN NOV 6 2005

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-071200-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
449 AM EST SUN NOV 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO
EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT AT APPROXIMATELY 40 MILES AN HOUR.  A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 60
MILES AN HOUR. INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN
NEW YORK THROUGH 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
IN NEW YORK STATE...

HERKIMER...HAMILTON...FULTON...MONTGOMERY...SCHOHARIE...WARREN...
SARATOGA...ALBANY...SCHENECTADY...GREENE...ULSTER....WASHINGTON...
RENSSELAER...COLUMBIA AND DUTCHESS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
555 PM EST SUN NOV 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             COLD BROOK              43.24N 75.04W
11/06/2005  0.75 INCH        HERKIMER           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 PM EST SUN NOV 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POLAND                  43.23N 75.06W
11/06/2005                   HERKIMER           NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN BETWEEN 545 PM AND 605 PM.

&&

GJM