Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 695 TO ZONES.  WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 233 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2005)

.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WILL GO WITH AN EARLY
ISSUANCE OF GRIDS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.  LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE CWA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  KENX RADAR SHOWING CELLS
POPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.  SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWING CU
ACROSS NORTH WESTERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.  FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN NEW YORK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH.  FLOW ACROSS THE CWA HAS BEEN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE
CWA.  CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY AROUND 1500 TO 2000
J/KG.  IN ORDER TO GET TO 2000 J/KG...WE WOULD NEED TO GET TO
83/68.  OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL GO WITH 50 CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS EARLY
TUESDAY.  LIKE NAM SOLUTION WITH DRY FORECAST.  BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AND APPROACHES THE CWA.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S AS OUR 850 TEMPERATURES REACH
+18.

WEDNESDAY...WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES STILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.LONG RANGE (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...EXTENDED FORECAST VERY
CONSISTENT WITH 24 HOURS AGO.  HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUBBLE OF DRY AIR
OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.  BACKDOOR FRONT MAY LIE THROUGH CWA OR
JUST TO OUR SOUTH.  FAIRLY COOL AIR AT 12Z THURSDAY (H8= 8-10C OVER
ME) TO OUR NE BUT WARM AIR (+16C H8 NR KBGM) JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
AS A RESULT MAX TEMPERATURES MAY BE AN ISSUE.

WARM AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MODELS PRETTY
CONSISTENT ON TIMING.  AND GFS HAS SHOW FRONTAL MOISTURE LINGERING
ON SOUTHERN DOORSTEP THROUGH WEEKEND. ECMWF FAVORS A LITTLE STRONGER
PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR THROUGH AREA.

FRONTAL MOISTURE BAND WITH COLD FRONT RATHER NARROW WHICH SUGGESTS
FAIRLY SHORT RAIN THREAT. HAVE NARROWED THE WINDOW OF CHANCE POPS
SOME IN THIS FORECAST WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAIN THREAT.
WEATHER KEPT DRY OVER THE WEEKEND.  MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN MONDAY
BUT HELD CHANCE POPS OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.  MVFR LCL IFR IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE
VFR.  STRATUS AND FOG REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR
CONDITIONS.  FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OF QUICKLY TUESDAY (12Z-13Z)
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME.  STRONG SHIFTING WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS ARE AT OR BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS. HEAVY RAIN
SUNDAY WAS LOCALIZED BUT DID PROMPT SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
AND A FEW EVENTS.  STORMS TODAY WILL MOVE A LITTLE FASTER THAN ON
SUNDAY...BUT ISOLATED VERY HEAVY RAIN AGAIN POSSIBLE.  HEAVY RAIN
FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT FOLLOW ONE ANOTHER COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF
ROADS...PARKING AREAS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SMALL STREAMS. THEY WILL
HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT EFFECT ON THE RIVERS.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
330 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     HAIL             HAMPTON                 43.53N 73.25W
08/01/2005  0.75 INCH        WASHINGTON         NY   OTHER FEDERAL

&&

KOLECI