Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1240 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT.  SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.  WILL UPDATE
ZONES SHORTLY BASED ON NEW GRIDS.  PACKAGE WILL BE REISSUED LATER.

ON TUESDAY...STILL A QUESTION ON THUNDERSTORMS THREAT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORT
MAX.  AHEAD OF FRONT MET MOS PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO OVER 90 IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  MAVS 5-10 DEG F LOWER.  AIR HAS DRIED SOME BUT SOME
MOISTURE REMAINS.  KEY MAY BE WARM LAYER ABOUT 12 K FT AND ITS
POTENTIAL TO CAP ACTIVITY.  YESTERDAYS NAM HAD NO CAP. 00Z RUN DID
ALTHOUGH IT WAS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER IT WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
CONVECTION.  LIFTING AN 84/63 SURFACE PARCEL IS ENOUGH TO CLEAR CAP
AND PROVIDE DECENT INSTABILITY.  GFS SOUNDINGS - A LITTLE COOLER AND
A LITTLE MOISTER IN THE LOW LEVELS.   WITH DEEP MIXED LAYER COULD
MIX DOWN DRIER AIR LOWERING SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND
REDUCING INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS.  00Z GFS BOTH
SUNDAY AND TODAY SHOWED STRONG CAP ALTHOUGH YESTERDAYS 12Z LOST
IT.

A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY ON NAM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
IT BRINGS FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH WITH H8 +18C INTO SRN NEW YORK BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM LOOKS TO BE HAVING ITS USUAL MOISTURE ISSUE
INFLATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS RETURNING FRONT BUT DRY SO WILL
LEAVE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...  HPC GUIDANCE   FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH EXTENDED FORECAST WE HAVE GOING.  CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HIGH
TRIES TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY COOL
THINGS A BIT SUNDAY.  WILL KEEP IT DRY BASED ON LOWER HPC POPS THAT
DAY AND DESIRE NOT TO HAVE 4 STRAIGHT DAYS OF PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION... DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA/HZ. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS
AND LARGE HAIL.
&&

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS...STREAMS AND RESERVOIRS ARE CONTINUING TO RUN
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.  WEATHER THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEED 1.5 INCHES. SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-071100-
BENNINGTON VT-EASTERN ALBANY NY-EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-
EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-EASTERN GREENE NY-EASTERN RENSSELAER NY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY NY-EASTERN ULSTER NY-EASTERN WINDHAM VT-
HAMILTON NY-MONTGOMERY NY-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-NORTHERN FULTON NY-
NORTHERN HERKIMER NY-NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-
NORTHERN WARREN NY-NORTHERN WASHINGTON NY-SCHOHARIE NY-
SOUTHEAST WARREN NY-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-SOUTHERN FULTON NY-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER NY-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-SOUTHERN SARATOGA NY-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON NY-WESTERN ALBANY NY-WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-
WESTERN DUTCHESS NY-WESTERN GREENE NY-WESTERN RENSSELAER NY-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY NY-WESTERN ULSTER NY-WESTERN WINDHAM VT-
1233 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...

TORNADO WATCH 414 IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ACTIVATED IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN CONNECTICUT...

LITCHFIELD.

IN MASSACHUSETTS...

BERKSHIRE.

IN NEW YORK...

ALBANY...COLUMBIA...DUTCHESS...GREENE...
RENSSELAER...SCHENECTADY...ULSTER...HAMILTON...
MONTGOMERY...FULTON...HERKIMER...SARATOGA...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...SCHOHARIE.

IN VERMONT...

BENNINGTON...WINDHAM.

OKEEFE