Frost Advisory 3, NWS Albany, NY

000 
WWUS71 KALY 272006
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

NYZ032-033-042-043-280415-
/X.CON.KALY.FR.Y.0003.050928T0700Z-050928T1100Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...
WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE
406 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY. 

THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A COOL AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID 30S RESULTING IN AREAS OF FROST.

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET WITH CENTER LOCATED NEAR OTTAWA
CANADA AT 18Z WITH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REMAINS OF RITA PRETTY MUCH INTEGRATED INTO EXTRATROPICAL FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
TO GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH A LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF IN THE PACIFIC COAST. BROAD
AND SHALLOW UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A SHALLOW
RIDGE NORTH OF A 500 HPA HIGH OVER TEXAS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
MODELS SLIDE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PRECIP PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE
AREA BY 03Z. THE SURFACE HIGH LOCATED IN THE GREAT PLAINS EDGES
EAST AND SHOULD CLEAR SKIES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS UP WINDS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
PRECLUDE RADIATIONAL COOLING SO NO FOG IN THE PICTURE TONIGHT.
COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE SUNSHINE AND FELT THE NAM MOS HAD A BIT
BETTER GRIP ON THE MAX TEMPS THAN THE GFS...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 60S WITH A FEW LOW 70S IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TO CENTER OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY
EVENING...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL
TAKE A NOSEDIVE ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS...GREEN MOUNTAINS...AND
BERKSHIRES. HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK ZONES WITH EXPECTED EFFECT OF MOISTURE FROM TREES AND
HEAT FROM THE NUMEROUS LAKES IN THAT AREA. WON/T RULE OUT FROST
OVER THIS AREA IN THE WEE SMALL HOURS BUT FEEL IF AN ADVISORY
IS WARRANTED THAT AN EARLY MORNING ISSUANCE WILL PROVIDE PLENTY
OF LEAD TIME. WOULD SUSPECT THAT TOMATOES IN THAT REGION HAVE
EITHER ALREADY BEEN KILLED OR THAT GARDENERS ARE PREPARED TO
TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES ANYHOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A
SURFACE TROF MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TWO WILL SET UP
A SOUTHERLY CIRCULATION AROUND THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HIGH
BRINGING WARM AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN WHICH IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO TEMPERATURES WILL ROCKET
UP FROM THE 30S AND 40S AT DAYBREAK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S BY AFTERNOON...NOT BAD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE
SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ZIPS
ACROSS THE EMPIRE STATE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WITH
FRONT JUST EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 12Z THURSDAY. BY NOON
THURSDAY THE FRONT IS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS ANOTHER HIGH CHASES AFTER IT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE DOOR OPENS ONCE AGAIN FOR SOME MORE CANADIAN AIR AND
WE MAY POSSIBLY GET A FREEZE IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR VERMONT ZONES FRIDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH MOVES EAST TO DELAWARE BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUES INTO THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT BUT EXTENDS
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY OVER THE WEEK END.
A CANADIAN HIGH AND A LOW OVER THE MARITIMES TEAM UP TO
DROP A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...RAIN...
AND MIST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD ENJOY
VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THE WEATHER
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT
SO FOG WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND CLOSE TO BODIES
OF WATER. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNRISE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY HAVE HAD AS MUCH AS AN INCH
OF BADLY NEEDED RAIN. ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE BONE DRY HOUSATONIC VALLEY WILL
ONLY GET HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...ENOUGH TO GREEN UP
THE GRASS. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED SAVE SOME PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADS AND PARKING AREAS. IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY THIS MONTH...WITH
MUCH OF THE REGION HAVE A ONE TO TWO INCH DEFICIT OF RAINFALL.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN. LOOKING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM THURSDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A HALF INCH OF
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
732 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2005

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-271100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
732 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.