Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Albany, NY

000 
WGUS71 KALY 031204
FFSALY

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

NYC115-031305-
WASHINGTON NY-
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED...

THE WATER WHICH WAS RELEASED WHEN THE HADLOCK POND DAM FAILED 
SATURDAY EVENING HAS RECEDED...BUT MANY ROADS REMAIN CLOSED IN THE 
AREA INCLUDING STATE ROUTE 149 FROM BUTTERMILK FALLS ROAD TO US 
ROUTE 4 IN FORT ANN. IN ADDITION...A STATE OF EMERGENCY HAS BEEN 
DECLARED BY WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE TOWN OF FORT ANN AND THE TOWN 
OF WHITEHALL.

LAT...LON 4332 7361 4332 7345 4350 7345 4350 7364

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
407 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

.SHORT TERM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A WEAK UPPER AIR RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING.  A RETURN LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE INDEPENDENCE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  THE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT TODAYS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN SATURDAYS READINGS.  THE AVIATION MODEL
GUIDANCE HAD VALUES ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS
TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE NORTH AMERICAN MODEL WAS ONLY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY.  WE BLENDED THE GUIDANCE TO
COME UP WITH HOUR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST EARLY TONIGHT...WHICH THE
AVIATION MODEL DIMINISHES TOWARD DAYBREAK.  THIS MAY MEAN THAT
CIRRUS CLOUDINESS WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR AWHILE.  A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSIONS ARE FORECAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DECOUPLING PROCESS AND A DROP IN THE WIND TO NEAR CALM
CONDITIONS.  THE AVIATION AND NORTH AMERICAN GUIDANCE WAS QUITE
SIMILAR AND WE BLENDED THE TWO TO COME UP WITH THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...MAINLY MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE CATSKILLS
AND MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS...WITH READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S IN
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DID NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS FOR MONDAY.  THERE MAY BE A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND
SOME THIN CIRRUS...BUT THATS ABOUT IT BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE.  THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE OF THE AVIATION WAS A TAD COOLER THAN
THE NORTH AMERICAN...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...BUT BOTH SETS OF
GUIDANCE WERE CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO WE BLENDED THE
VALUES ONCE AGAIN.  THIS YIELDED VALUES MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE
MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS...AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES LOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY STRONGER
MONDAY THAN TODAY...SO THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
MILES AN HOUR FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A SUGGESTION...PARTICULARLY FROM THE AVIATION MODEL THAT
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT.  WE FOLLOWED
THIS GUIDANCE...INDICATING MORE CLOUDS THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND HIGHER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE PER BOTH THE AVIATION AND
NORTH AMERICAN VALUES.  DESPITE THE INCREASING MOISTURE...THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT CONTAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE OR
INSTABILITY TO SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...SO WE STAYED WITH
THE PREVIOUSLY DRY FORECAST.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS A BIT
STRONGER MONDAY NIGHT THAN MONDAY...SO ITS REASONABLE TO BELIEVE
THAT AT LEAST A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  THIS IDEA LENDS CREDIBILITY TO THE HIGHER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVING A SURFACE COOL FRONT EASTWARD AND
THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK CYCLONE MAY
FORM ALONG THIS FRONT OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AND
TRAVEL INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  DRIER AIR MAY TAKE HOLD THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
SUGGESTION FROM THE CANADIAN GLOBAL AND AVIATION MODELS THAT THE
DRIER WEATHER MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.  WE MADE SOME
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EARLY IN THIS PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG AT KGFL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 4SM.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SKC WITH WINDS MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...EXCEPT S-SE AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER HEAVY RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE LAST
WEEK. VERY LITTLE IF ANY FIRE DANGER. IN ADDITION RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES EARLY THIS MORNING 85 TO 100 PERCENT WITH EXCELLENT RH
RECOVERY EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
SAME RANGE. MINIMUM RH TODAY 35 TO 45 PERCENT WITH MAINLY LIGHT OR
VARIABLE OR S-SE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH NEXT THREAT OF RAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TOO FAR
OUT AT THIS POINT TO ATTEMPT TO PINPOINT QPF AMOUNTS...BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE DURING PART OF THIS PERIOD IF SHORT
WAVE STALLS CLOSE TO HSA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...HEMMERICH
LONG TERM...HEMMERICH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
423 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-041100-
BENNINGTON VT-EASTERN ALBANY NY-EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-
EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-EASTERN GREENE NY-EASTERN RENSSELAER NY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY NY-EASTERN ULSTER NY-EASTERN WINDHAM VT-
HAMILTON NY-MONTGOMERY NY-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-NORTHERN FULTON NY-
NORTHERN HERKIMER NY-NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-
NORTHERN WARREN NY-NORTHERN WASHINGTON NY-SCHOHARIE NY-
SOUTHEAST WARREN NY-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-SOUTHERN FULTON NY-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER NY-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-SOUTHERN SARATOGA NY-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON NY-WESTERN ALBANY NY-WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-
WESTERN DUTCHESS NY-WESTERN GREENE NY-WESTERN RENSSELAER NY-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY NY-WESTERN ULSTER NY-WESTERN WINDHAM VT-
423 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE MAY BE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS A COOL FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD AND THROUGH EASTERN NEW
YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.