Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

.SYNOPSIS...HOT HUNID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DOMINATES MOST OF THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.  BOUNDARY BETWEEN TROPICAL AIR MASS
AND COOLER AIR LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...HAZY...HOT...
AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH AIR-MASS TYPE THUNDERSTRORMS
DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LACK OF SOLAR HEATING. SOME FLOODING HAS ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED FROM THESE STORMS TODAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE
MOISTURE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.  MODELS AND NCEP BOTH INDICATED
FRONT WOULD DRIFT SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER AND STALL
TODAY...BUT OBSERVED CONDITIONS SUGGEST FRONT MAY BE PUSHING
A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA HIGH HANGS TOUGH AND THE TRIPLE
H WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL STEERING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT THIS EVENING (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND
SATURDAY ALONG WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...ABOUT TWICE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR HP CELLS THAT WILL BE
SLOW MOVERS...TRAIN...BACK BUILD ALONG BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR
CONVECTION. THUS MAY GET LOCALIZED PRECIP OF 3 INCHES OR MORE
IN A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES
TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ONE CONCERN AS WE GO INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK REGARDS THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OFF THE GULF STREAM INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  A CONVERGENCE ZONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE REGION BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A SECOND HIGH
OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH A LOW OFF THE MARITIMES BRINGING
A BACK-DOOR FRONT CLOSE TO OUR AREA ON MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE TWO MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY
REGARDING CAPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS HAS VERY LOW VALUES
OF LESS THAN 500 OVER MOST OF OUR AREA WHILE THE NAM VALUES
ARE 1100 TO OVER 1300. THE GFS AND NCEP BRING A WARM FRONT
CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT AT OUR SOUTHERN BOUNDARY AT
12Z TUESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
WITH THE AIR MASS BOUNDARY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
AS A CLOSED 500 HPA LOW SLOWLY TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRIONDACKS AND THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE CAPITAL REGION...MID HUDSON
REGION...AND BERKSHIRES THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CATKILLS...MID HUDSON
REGION...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE
TO MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND HAZE. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND FOG
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY BUT HAZE WILL
LIKELY KEEP VISIBILITY CLOSE TO MVFR.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW
MOVING AND TRAINING HP CELLS. THEY ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT FLOW INCREASE ON THE MOHAWK RIVER UPSTREAM
OF FONDA ALONG WITH STREAMS ON THE NORTHERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
THESE HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND BERKSHIRES THIS EVENING
AND POSSIBLY FARTHER SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT.  WE HAVE
EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 6AM SATURDAY. BUILT UP AREAS WILL ESPECIALLY
BE VULNERABLE TO FLOODING.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY CTZ001-013
MA...FLOOD WATCH NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY MAZ001-025
NY...FLOOD WATCH NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY ALL ALY ZONES
VT...FLOOD WATCH NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY VTZ013>015.
&&

KILPATRICK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-111100-
BENNINGTON VT-EASTERN ALBANY NY-EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-
EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-EASTERN GREENE NY-EASTERN RENSSELAER NY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY NY-EASTERN ULSTER NY-EASTERN WINDHAM VT-
HAMILTON NY-MONTGOMERY NY-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-NORTHERN FULTON NY-
NORTHERN HERKIMER NY-NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-
NORTHERN WARREN NY-NORTHERN WASHINGTON NY-SCHOHARIE NY-
SOUTHEAST WARREN NY-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-SOUTHERN FULTON NY-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER NY-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-SOUTHERN SARATOGA NY-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON NY-WESTERN ALBANY NY-WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-
WESTERN DUTCHESS NY-WESTERN GREENE NY-WESTERN RENSSELAER NY-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY NY-WESTERN ULSTER NY-WESTERN WINDHAM VT-
149 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

.DAY ONE...

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY
MORNING AS THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD
WATCH PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING IF FLASH FLOODING OCCURS. PLEASE SEND ANY RAINFALL
MEASUREMENTS OF 1.5 INCHES OR MORE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ROUND LAKE              42.94N 73.80W
06/10/2005                   SARATOGA           NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED/CLOSED. REPORT OF OVER 2 INCHES OF
            RAIN.

&&