Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
415 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...STORMS HAVE BEEN
FIRING THIS AFTN ALONG WK LOW LVL CONV BNDRY JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHWRS AND TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS
SW VA/NCNTRL NC...ALONG ANOTHER BNDRY. SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX OVER OH
VLY WILL TRACK EWD OVERNGT SO EXPECT AT LEAST CHC PRECIP CONTG AFTER
MIDNGT.

TUE/WED...UPR JET ENERGY CURRENTLY ACRS OH VLY/PA WILL SINK SWD ON
TUE...AND WILL HAVE DECENT LOW LVL CONV ALL ZONES...COUPLED W/ STRG
UPR DIV ESP ACRS THE NRN ZONES. WILL GO LIKELY POPS IN AFTN FOR
AREAS N OF RIC...TO HI CHC (SCTD) RIC TO WAL LINE AND SOUTH (WHERE
UPR SUPPORT A LITTLE WEAKER). TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ESP IN THE NORTH
WHERE EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS AND ELY LOW LVL FLOW. WILL STILL BE NEAR
90 ACRS THE SRN 1/3 OF THE CWA. PRECIP CHCS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH TUE
NGT AS UPR DYN CONTINUE. DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTH ON WED. WILL KEEP SHC POPS WED IN CNTRL ZONES/CHC IN FAR SOUTH
AS BNDRY WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO VA/NC BORDER. FARTHER NORTH HAVE IT
DRY AS LI VALUES RISE TO +10 C AND FAIRLY DRY AIR MOVES IN. STILL
EXPECT MCDY SKIES ERLY ON W/ LOW LVL ELY FLOW...ALONG W/ TEMPS ONLY
IN 80S ALL AREAS. (DID NOT GO AS COOL AS THE UPR 70S MAV MOS HAS AS
THIS LIKELY INFLUENCED BY WETTER GFS SOLN WHICH WAS GNRLY
DISREGARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...BNDRY WEAKENS ON THU AS HIGH
PRES TO OUR NORTH BUILDS SWD. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING A RETURN TO HIGH TEMPS UPR 80S INTO THE 90S BY
SAT/SUN. THEN BY SUN NGT/MON BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A
DEEPENING MID LVL TROF OVER ERN CONUS (ASSOC W/ BUILDING WRN CONUS
RIDGE)...W/ ANOTHER COLD FRONT SO WILL HAVE CHC TSTMS AGAIN SUN
NGT/MON.

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT W/ ELY FLOW ACRS NRN CSTL WTRS. OTHERWISE
FAIRLY LGT WINDS W/ SUB SCA CONDS OVERNGT. SWELL TO THEN CONTINUE
ARND 10-11 SEC PERIODS THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIABLE CONDS OVERNGT...VFR IN DRY AREAS BUT ISO/SCTD
TSTMS WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR TO IFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNGT MAINLY ACRS INLAND NC....ELY FLOW MAY GIVE LOW CIGS/IFR AFTER
MIDNGT ACRS NRN SITES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ650-652
UNTIL      11 PM MONDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION/MARINE...REILLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
545 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005

MDZ025-NCZ102-VAZ098>100-161030-
MARYLAND BEACHES-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-
NORTHAMPTON VA-
545 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHEAST MARYLAND...AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY...AGAIN DUE THE LONG PERIOD...EASTERLY SWELLS FROM THE
DISTANT HURRICANE IRENE. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST SURF ZONE FORECAST (WBCSRFAKQ).

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE LONG PERIOD...EASTERLY TO SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IRENE ARE
ANTICIPATED TO LINGER ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS INTO WEDNESDAY... EVEN
AS THE DISTANT STORM MOVES NORTHEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE INCREASED SURF AND ELEVATED
RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ANZ630>633-650-652-654-656-658-670-MDZ021>024-NCZ012>017-030>032-
VAZ048-049-060>097-161030-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM-
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC FROM
20 TO 40 NM-DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-
GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-
POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-
WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-
DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-
MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
545 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHEAST MARYLAND...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND AN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 100 AND 105 OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE RICHMOND METRO AREA SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANY OF WHICH WILL WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

HURLEY

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