Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LINE OF SHRA W/ EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING ACRS FAR NW PRTNS OF CWA
AND THE. AREA IS EXPANDING SLIGHTLY SWD W/ TIME. THIS AREA OF
STORMS IS ASSOC W/ STRONG 5H VORT/LF QUAD 120 KT 3H JET AND HAS
POTENTIAL FOR TO PRODUCE ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS (.75-1
HAIL WINDS AOA 60MPH). AREA SHLD REACH COAST OF ERN SHR BTWN 7-8
PM. STILL HAVE MORE SHRA W/ EMBEDDED TSTM BEHIND IT SO CARRY
LIKELY POPS ACRS NRN 1/3 THRU ERLY EVENING...THEN NE 1/4 TIL
MIDNIGHT W/ CHC POPS ELSEWHERE (THOUGH NO THUNDER AFTER MID EVENING...XCPT
FAR SE). HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS OF ANY PARTICULAR
MODEL GIVEN COMPLEX VORTICITY STRUCTURE W/ MULT VORTS /DANCING/
AROUND CUTOFF LOW AS IT DROPS S INTO MID ATLC STATES
TON/TUE...THEN SLOWLY WORKS E TO OFFSHORE BY WED EVE. RESULT WILL
BE UNSETTLED WX THRU WED. HOWEVER THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINITY
ABOUT WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE SO HAVE OPTED FOR JUST CHC POPS
TUE...AS IN BETWEEN TH ROTATING VORTS...WILL BE ONE OR TWO VORT
MINS...THAT ACTUALLY COULD PROMOTE LOCALIZED CLEARING AHEAD OF
THERE PASSAGE (STRONG NVA)...WISH COULD BE MORE SPECIFIC BUT IS
ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE BEYOND 12 HRS TO DO SO IN THESE SITUATIONS.
CUTOFF LOW LIFTS NNE WED NIGHT AND THU TO NRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THU EVE. AS LOW TRACKS AWAY DO GRAD TAPER OFF POPS FROM SW TO NE
STARTING TUE NIGHT W/ ONLY SLGT CHC POPS ACRS E 1/3 WED NIGHT. FOR
NOW IT APPEARS SHLD BE DRY W/ CLEARING THU AND THU NIGHT. FOR
TEMPS GENELLY FOLLOWED BLEND OF MOS...WEIGHTED TOWARDS WARMER
VALUES TONIGHT (IN WARM SECTOR MOST OF CWA)...COOLER NUMBERS
TUE/TUE NIGHT (ONSHORE FLOW SETTING UP AND UPR LOW DESCENDING.
THEN WARMER NUMBERS WED AS UPR LOW DEPARTS (AND ESP SW AREAS GET
SOME SUN). BLEND OF MOS TEMPS WORKS FINE WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

WHULE 6Z GFS WAS USED TO CREATE INITIAL XTND FCST...12Z GFS HAS
BASICALLY FOLLOWED SUIT (THOUGH A TAD SLOWER) FOR NOW SINCE 6Z GFS
IS CLOSET TO HPC CONSENSUS FCST WILL NOT ADJUST FOR 12Z GFS. XPCT
COLD FRONT TO CROSS CWA FRI INTO FRI EVENING (CHC POPS N 2/3 W/ BETTER
DYNAMICS SLGT CHC POPS S FRI THEN SLGT CHC POPS FRI EVE). PASSING
VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND YET ANOTHER UPR LOW MOVING INTO ERN LAKES
WARRANTS SLGT CHC POPS SAT AND SAT EVE. HIGH PRES SHLD KEEPS
THINGS DRY THEN TO START NEXT WEEK. TEMPS GENLY IN LINE W/ MEN
(MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN) GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CURRENTLY...BUT CONDS DETERIORATE TO TEMPO
MVFR/IFR IN SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVENG. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
THRU LATE EVENG ERN SITES...THEN JUST MAINLY CLDY...MVFR CIGS. ON
TUE...COASTAL SITES WILL LIKELY DROP CIGS INTO IFR BY LATE MRNG IN
NE FLOW...MVFR/VFR FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS REMAIN BLO SMALL CRAFT THIS EVENG (W/ EXCEPTION OF
LOCAL CONVECTION). AS LOW PRES PULLS OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNGT...WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE ON N/NE FLOW. LOOKS TO BE TUE
BEFORE CONDS REACH SMALL CRAFT...FROM N TO S ACRS MARINE AREAS. THEN
A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SMALL CRAFT ALL ZONES TUE AFTN INTO WED NGT/THU
MRNG AS LOW DRIFTS UP E COAST. TIDES ABOUT 1 FT ABOVE NRML...BUT
STILL LOOKS TO BE BLO CSTL FLOOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO SHORES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>633-650-652-670 FROM 6
AM TUESDAY TO 11 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION/MARINE...BROWN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
526 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2005

MDZ025-240930-
MARYLAND BEACHES-
526 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND BEACHES
INCLUDING OCEAN CITY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS. FOR MORE DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE SURF ZONE
FORECAST...WBCSRFAKQ...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT ANTICIPATED.

VAZ099-100-240930-
ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
526 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA TODAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL...PENNY SIZED OR
LARGER...AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. FOR MORE DETAILS...REFER TO
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...WBCSPSAKQ...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE
AT 457 AM. ALSO...THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. FOR MORE DETAILS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST...WBCSRFAKQ...ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

ANZ630>633-650-652-654-656-658-240930-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM-
526 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE
BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
FENWICK ISLAND AND CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA TODAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS...OVER THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS...MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL...PENNY SIZED OR LARGER...AND WIND
GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. FOR MORE DETAILS...REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...WBCSPSAKQ...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE AT 457 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>098-240930-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-
KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-
526 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND EAST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA TODAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL...PENNY SIZED OR
LARGER...AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. FOR MORE DETAILS...REFER TO
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...WBCSPSAKQ...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE
AT 457 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

MDZ021>024-240930-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-
526 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT ANTICIPATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
513 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW GARYSVILLE         37.27N 77.18W
05/23/2005                   PRINCE GEORGE      VA   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN.

&&

SFUNK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
520 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2005

VAZ073-078-084>086-232145-
GLOUCESTER VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-LANCASTER VA-MATHEWS VA-MIDDLESEX VA-
520 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING TOWARD GLOUCESTER AND MATHEWS
COUNTIES...

AT 520 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES WEST OF URBANNA...OR ABOUT 7 MILES EAST
OF KING AND QUEEN COURTHOUSE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR WARNER...AND...MASCOT AT 525 PM EDT...
CLANCIE AT 530 PM EDT...SALUDA...AND...GLENNS AT 535 PM EDT...CASH...
AND...COOPER AT 540 PM EDT...HEALYS...AND...HARCUM AT 545 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
EXPECT FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOURE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER SHOULD THIS STORM APPROACH
YOUR AREA.

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