Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
WWAK43 PAFG 080411
WSWAFG

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
711 PM AST WED DEC 7 2005

AKZ219-080700-
/X.CAN.PAFG.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051209T0100Z/
/X.EXA.PAFG.SN.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-051208T1400Z/
UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY-
INCLUDING...ALLAKAKET...HUGHES...BETTLES...CARIBOU MOUNTAIN...
GOBBLERS KNOB
711 PM AST WED DEC 7 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AST THURSDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

EXPECT FOUR INCHES OF NEW SNOW OVERNIGHT.

THE ADVISORY AREA INCLUDES THE DALTON HIGHWAY.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT THE EXPECTED NEW SNOWFALL WILL CAUSE
DIFFICULTIES IN TRAVELING.

$$

AKZ221-080700-
/X.CAN.PAFG.BS.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-051208T1400Z/
/X.EXA.PAFG.SN.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-051208T1400Z/
CENTRAL INTERIOR-
INCLUDING...NENANA...ANDERSON...TANANA...MINTO...
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS...RAMPART...LAKE MINCHUMINA...LIVENGOOD
711 PM AST WED DEC 7 2005

...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AST THURSDAY. THE
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING SNOW WILL CREATE LOCALLY POOR
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW.

THE ADVISORY AREA INCLUDES THE ELLIOTT HIGHWAY.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT THE EXPECTED NEW SNOWFALL WILL CAUSE
DIFFICULTIES IN TRAVELING.

$$

AKZ222-080515-
/X.CAN.PAFG.BS.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-051208T1400Z/
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-
INCLUDING...FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...
NORTH POLE...MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...
CHENA HOT SPRINGS...SOURDOUGH CAMP
711 PM AST WED DEC 7 2005

...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. 

$$

AKZ218-080700-
/X.CON.PAFG.SN.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-051208T1400Z/
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-
INCLUDING...ARCTIC VILLAGE...WISEMAN...COLDFOOT...
CHANDALAR D.O.T. CAMP...INIAKUK LAKE
711 PM AST WED DEC 7 2005

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AST THURSDAY...

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AST THURSDAY. 

EXPECT FOUR INCHES OF NEW SNOW OVERNIGHT.

THE ADVISORY AREA INCLUDES THE DALTON HIGHWAY.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT THE EXPECTED NEW SNOWFALL WILL CAUSE
DIFFICULTIES IN TRAVELING.

$$

AKZ220-080700-
/X.CON.PAFG.BS.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-051208T1400Z/
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS-
INCLUDING...FORT YUKON...VENETIE...CENTRAL...CIRCLE...
STEVENS VILLAGE...BEAVER...CHALKYITSIK...BIRCH CREEK...
CIRCLE HOT SPRINGS...EAGLE SUMMIT...TWELVEMILE SUMMIT
711 PM AST WED DEC 7 2005

...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AST
THURSDAY...

A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AST
THURSDAY. 

GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY POOR
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW.

THE ADVISORY AREA INCLUDES THE DALTON AND STEESE HIGHWAYS...AND
THE HIGH COUNTRY OVER THE YUKON FLATS.

A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

$$

AKZ224-080700-
/X.CON.PAFG.BS.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-051208T1400Z/
UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY-
INCLUDING...TOK...TANACROSS...EAGLE...TETLIN...NORTHWAY...ALCAN...
CHICKEN...BOUNDARY
711 PM AST WED DEC 7 2005

...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AST
THURSDAY...

A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AST
THURSDAY. 

GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW AND LOCALLY POOR
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT.

A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

$$

000 
WWAK42 PAFG 190645
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
945 PM AST SUN DEC 18 2005

AKZ213-191400-
/X.CON.PAFG.WS.A.0003.051220T0300Z-051221T1400Z/
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST-
INCLUDING...GAMBELL...SAVOONGA...BREVIG MISSION...TELLER...
WALES...DIOMEDE
945 PM AST SUN DEC 18 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. 

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 55 MPH MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL OR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY.

$$

000 
WWAK42 PAFG 190857
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1157 PM AST SUN DEC 18 2005

AKZ213-191700-
/X.UPG.PAFG.WS.A.0003.051220T0300Z-051221T1400Z/
/X.NEW.PAFG.WS.W.0007.051219T0857Z-051221T1500Z/
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST-
INCLUDING...GAMBELL...SAVOONGA...BREVIG MISSION...TELLER...
WALES...DIOMEDE
1157 PM AST SUN DEC 18 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST WEDNESDAY. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

WINDS GUSTING TO 60 TO 65 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED BY BLOWING SNOW. 
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO
IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITY VERY
HAZARDOUS.

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
535 AM AST WED DEC 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...

..NORTHERN ALASKA TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
FREQUENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION..

ALOFT...NORTHERN ALASKA CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN A DEEPENING 504
DM 500 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND A RIDGE LOCATED OVER
THE ALCAN BOARDER. THIS PLACES ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN GENERAL
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THUS EXPLAINING THE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WE ARE EXPERIENCING. ANOTHER LOW AT 500 MB IS
LOCATED NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN RUSSIA WHILE THE ALEUTIAN SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE NET EFFECT OF
THIS WILL BE TO RETROGRADE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION OVER THE BERING SEA TO OVER EASTERN RUSSIA. HOWEVER
BEFORE THIS RETROGRESSION IS COMPLETE ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR KODIAK ISLAND BY
FRIDAY EVENING.

SURFACE...949 MB LOW LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF ADAK IS SLOWLY
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE IS
LOCATED OVER SIBERIA WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS
IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BETHEL AND MOVES NORTHWARD TO A POSITION
NEAR NOME BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO FORM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN SYSTEM BY TUESDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN
AS IT APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE GFS AND ETA HAS BEEN POOR SO
DETAILS ABOUT ITS EVOLUTION ARE SUSPECT AT THIS POINT.

MODELS...BOTH GFS AND ETA ARE TOO WEAK IN THEIR INITIALIZATION OF
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS. IN ADDITION THE LOW IS
ACTUALLY ABOUT 125 NM WEST OF ITS LOCATION IN THE MODELS. IT
APPEARS HOWEVER THAT THIS ERROR WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST DUE TO THE CURRENT DISTANCE OF THE SYSTEM FROM OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ETA ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THEREFORE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NORTH SLOPE...NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED AS ADVERTISED WITH
BLOWING SNOW BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT. IN ZONE 204 STRONGER WINDS
AND RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO RESULTING IN LOW WIND
CHILLS. THIS COMBINATION OF WINTER HAZARDS IS THE REASON FOR THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THIS ZONE. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHWARD SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN ZONES 201-203. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A LITTLE
MORE BUT REMAIN WITHIN TEN DEGREES OF ZERO THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEST COAST...FIRST BATCH OF SNOWFALL IS BEGINNING TO EXIT THE WEST
COAST WITH A NEW BATCH RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY THROUGHOUT OUR WEST COAST ZONES WITH THE ADDED HAZARD OF
STRONG WINDS. THIS MEANS THAT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
NECESSARY FOR MOST OF OUR WEST COAST ZONES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ZONES 208 216 AND 217 WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND ZONE 213
WHERE VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLIZZARD
WARNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO NEAR FREEZING AT PACZ AND PAEM
AND WITH THE CONTINUED ONSLAUGHT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN OVER ZONES 212 214 AND 215. THE
ONLY HOPE OF IMPROVED CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE
POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST IN ZONES 212 214 AND
215 BY FRIDAY.

INTERIOR...CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH CHINOOK FLOW HAS WARMED OUR
INTERIOR ZONES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH FAIRBANKS REACHING 20F THIS
MORNING FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE OCTOBER 30TH. SNOWFALL OVER THE
INTERIOR FROM FAIRBANKS NORTH AND WESTWARD IS WEAKENING AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES NORTHEAST. THIS MAY HAVE BEEN THE LAST CHANCE
FOR SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
WHERE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY IN ZONES 221-
224. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A LITTLE BIT MORE BUT ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES NORTH OF ZONES 225 AND 226 ARE UNLIKELY.
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN PASS LOCATIONS OF
ZONES 225 AND 226 AS PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED MUCH MORE
SLOWLY THAN THE AIR ABOVE AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. IN ADDITION
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THESE ZONES WILL REACH
WARNING CRITERIA BY NOON TODAY.

EXTENDED...GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH LOCATION OF LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN RUSSIA THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL SUPPORT BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. AFTER THIS POINT THERE IS
MORE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MODELS BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A
LONGWAVE RIDGE REASSERTING ITSELF OVER WESTERN ALASKA BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD LIKELY BRING COOLER AND DRIER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BACK TO NORTHERN ALASKA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ208-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-
AKZ219.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ213-AKZ225-AKZ226.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

JMA DEC 05