Wind Advisory 36, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
WWAK73 PAFG 202255
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
255 PM ADT THU OCT 20 2005

AKZ225-226-210000-
/X.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-051020T2300Z/
DENALI-EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA...MENTASTA LAKE...BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...
TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...MINERAL LAKE
255 PM ADT THU OCT 20 2005

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM ADT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM ADT THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH
PASSES AND CANYONS TODAY.

$$

000 
WWAK73 PAFG 202300
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
300 PM ADT THU OCT 20 2005

AKZ225-226-210000-
/X.EXP.PAFG.WI.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-051020T2300Z/
DENALI-EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA...MENTASTA LAKE...BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...
TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...MINERAL LAKE
300 PM ADT THU OCT 20 2005

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
615 AM ADT THU OCT 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE PICS SHOW GOOD COLD AIR ALOFT WELL SOUTH
OF THE GULF LOW (DOWN TO 40N). FOR THIS REASON...WE PREFER THE
DEEPER GFS TREATMENT OF IT...THOUGH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE 06Z
MODELS ARE MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED THAN EARLIER RUNS IN ANY EVENT.
AGAIN BASED ON THE PICS...WE SUSPECT THAT EVEN THE GFS MAY BE A
BIT SHALLOW IN THE SHORT TERM. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW IS ALREADY INLAND AND ALOFT ALONG ABOUT A PABE-PATK
LINE. IT WILL LIKELY NUDGE BACK WESTWARD THE DEFORMATION ZONE
THAT EXTENDS FROM ABOUT PADE TO PABE AS IT CONTINUES NORTH.
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND EVEN MUCH OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR
WILL BE DOWNSLOPED THANKS TO THE INTENSITY OF THE GULF LOW...
BUT APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
BETWEEN ABOUT 158W AND 162W TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...CONCERNS
ABOUT HEAVY SNOW IN ZONES 208 AND 217 HAVE DIMINISHED AS WE
EXPECT THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE OVER
THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT. WE EXPECT LITTLE PRECIPITATION
FROM IT OVER NORTHERN ALASKA...THOUGH MAYBE A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A SHORT
WAVE ON THIS FRONT INTO A RESPECTABLE SURFACE LOW (IN THE 70S) IN
THE BARROW AREA FRI NIGHT. WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS ONE CLOSELY.

THE OLD LOW OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO
A TROUGH TODAY AS A NEW LOW MOVES EASTWARD ALONG RUSSIAS BERING
SEA COAST. THIS NEW LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 988 MB NEAR CAPE
NAVARIN AT 4PM TODAY. IT WILL DECELERATE MARKEDLY THEREAFTER AS IT
MOVES UNDER THE LOW ALOFT...WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 70S SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AT 4PM FRI...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST
FRI NIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ245.
&&

DJH OCT 05