Storm Warning 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
FZAK59 PAFG 061250
CWFAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
400 AM AST THU JAN 6 2005

WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-070300-
400 AM AST THU JAN 6 2005

.SYNOPSIS FOR WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ARCTIC COAST...
1052 MB HIGH OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 10 KT AND VERY
SLOWLY WEAKEN. 988 MB LOW 500 NM WEST OF ADAK WILL MOVE NORTH AND
RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO BE A 1014 MB CENTER JUST WEST OF ANADYR AT 6 AM
FRI.

$$

AREA 9A
PKZ290-070300-
NORTON SOUND-
400 AM AST THU JAN 6 2005

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.  

$$

AREA 9B
PKZ295-070300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
400 AM AST THU JAN 6 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA 10A
PKZ200-070300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
400 AM AST THU JAN 6 2005

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

AREA 10B
PKZ205-070300-
WALES TO CAPE LISBURNE-
400 AM AST THU JAN 6 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 35 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WINDS 30 KT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

AREA 11A
PKZ210-070300-
CAPE LISBURNE TO CAPE HALKETT-
400 AM AST THU JAN 6 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 40 KT. SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 35 KT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 35 KT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE
EVENING. 
.SAT...W WINDS 30 KT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

AREA 11B
PKZ215-070300-
CAPE HALKETT TO DEMARCATION POINT-
400 AM AST THU JAN 6 2005

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...W WINDS 45 KT. EXTENSIVE BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...W WINDS 45 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT.  

$$
RT/ JAN 05

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
230 PM AST WED JAN 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA UNDER A BRISK W-LY FLOW ALOFT. A RATHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS W-LY FLOW HAS BROUGHT 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW TO MANY AREAS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE,
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. A DEEP LOW CENTER THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY
E-WARD ACROSS THE HIGH ARCTIC IS BRINGING STRONG W-LY WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW TO THE ARCTIC COAST. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE VERY MILD
OVER ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA WITH 20F OR HIGHER TEMPS BEING
REPORTED OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.

SHORT-RANGE MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW
MOVING OVER INTERIOR ALASKA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST INTO CANADA
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW TO END OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-WARD ACROSS
WESTERN ALASKA TONIGHT AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
ON THU AS A WARM FRONT MOVES E-WARD ACROSS THE STATE. WEAKER
DYNAMICS SHOULD KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOWER THEN HAS BEEN PRODUCED
BY THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE. THIS WARM FRONT MARKS TO LEADING EDGE OF
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD N-WARD
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD AS HIGH
AS 585 MB, WHICH MAY VERY WELL BE A RECORD FOR JAN. IN SPITE OF
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AND THU OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR, THE EXTREMELY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 20S
AND 30S OVER THE REGION.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL
PRODUCE VERY STRONG S-LY TO SW-LY WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ENOUGH BY
THU AFTERNOON TO END ANY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THAT MAY BE OCCURRING
OVER THE REGION. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE BY THU AFT
AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME COOLING OF TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS, BUT VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO THE LEVELS THAT THE ETA ARE
FORECASTING.

THE WEATHER FOR FRI AND SAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WARM OVER
ALL OF MAINLAND ALASKA WITH STRONG W-LY WINDS AND SNOW CONTINUING
OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LONG-RANGE MODELS
ARE NOW COMING INTO MORE INTO AGREEMENT IN THE IDEA OF A COOLING
TREND FROM SUN ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SE-WARD OVER THE STATE, PUSHING TO VERY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTH. THE GFS IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
OF THE TWO MODELS IN THE COOLING TREND. IT IS PUSHING 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES BELOW 500 DB OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY SUN WHILE
THE ECMWF KEEPS THEM IN THE 520 DM RANGE. WE WILL LEAVE THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ALONE FOR NOW.

.AFG WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WRNG 201...205...206 THU AND THU
NIGHT...207...208 LATE TONIGHT AND THU. WINTER STORM WRNG ABOVE
TREELINE 219...220...221 THU. HEAVY SNOW WRNG 225 TONIGHT. WINTER
WEATHER ADVY 203 AND 204 TONIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVY 214 TONIGHT.
MARINE...STORM WRNG TONIGHT 10B...THU 10A AND 11A. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WRNG 9B TONIGHT. GALE WRNG TONIGHT
10A...10B...11A...TONIGHT/THU 9B. GALE WRNG THU 11B.

MP JAN 05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1238 PM AST WED JAN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     HEAVY SNOW       DENALI NATIONAL PARK    63.72N 148.96W
01/05/2005  7.0 INCH                            AK   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            7 INCHES NEW AND HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES...FROM DENALI PARK
            COMMUNICATIONS CENTER

&&

ABE