Small Craft Advisory 91, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
230 PM ADT THU SEP 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY TYPICAL EARLY SEPTEMBER WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. DEEP POLAR
VORTEX IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THIS FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY
BRANCH INCREASING DOMINATING AREAS SOUTH OF 65N.

MODELS TODAY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEMS. COOL
AMS OVER INTERIOR WILL MODERATE AS WESTERLY FLOW BREAKS THROUGH
AND OCCLUSION MOVES FROM WEST COAST INTO INTERIOR NEXT 36 HOURS.
FRONTAL SYSTEM ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE NEXT 18 HOURS BUT LITTLE IMPACT FARTHER
SOUTH. MID RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RETREATING THE
POLAR VORTEX TOWARD ELLESMERE ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING
FOR DEEPER LOW ALOFT IN THE BERING SEA AND SOME RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.

FOR THE NORTH SLOPE...WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY FOR CAPE
LISBURNE AREA UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THRU...EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE SOME PRECIP MOST AREAS...PROBABLY RAIN AND SNOW AT
LEAST TO START. PROBABLY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO ON THE
FRONT BUT DECENT AGREEMENT ON HAVING PRETTY COLD AMS OVER BEAUFORT
SEA...850 MB TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW MINUS 10C...BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

FOR THE WEST COAST....LOOKS TO BE A WET TIME COMING UP AS MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW GETS GOING. ETA IS FORECASTING IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH OF PRECIP IN ONSHORE FLOW AREAS SEWARD PEN SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SAT..AND THIS IS REASONABLE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. AMS WILL
BE COOL BUT WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY ALL RAIN. COOLER AIR BRIEFLY
RETURNING SUN/MONDAY.

FOR THE INTERIOR...FROST/FREEZE LIKELY TONIGHT IN THE PLACES THAT
HAVE YET TO HAVE ONE. THEN A DECENT RAIN EVENT FOR MOST OF THE
INTERIOR  OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE MOISTURE STREAMS EASTWARD FROM
THE BERING SEA...THOUGH THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY SHOULD BE
LARGELY CHINOOKED OUT.

.HYDRO...NONE
.FIRE WEATHER...NONE

.AFG WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY CAPE LISBURNE AREA ZONE 201
MARINE...SCA 210 AND 225

RT SEP 05