Small Craft Advisory 55, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
600 AM ADT FRI AUG 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...RAPIDLY EVOLVING PATTERN FOR NORTHERN ALASKA
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE EXTREME BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRST TROUGH ALOFT NOW ONTO THE WEST COAST MOVING EASTWARD AND
WEAKENING AS RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF STRONGER TROUGH NOW IN THE
WESTERN BERING SEA. MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
ON HANDLING THESE SYSTEMS. SECOND FEATURE  DRIVES INTO EASTERN
CHUKOTKA LATE TONIGHT WITH SUBSTANTIALLY MORE WINDS...AND WEST
OF 165W MORE RAIN. MEANWHILE...RIDGE ALOFT QUICKLY BUILDING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
BUILD INTO A 590 DM 500 MB HIGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SQUASHING
PCPN OVER ALL THE FCST AREA EXCP THE FAR WEST AND POSSIBLY
NORTHERN ARCTIC.

FOR THE NORTH SLOPE...1ST FEATURE NOT BRINGING MUCH WEATHER
TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT NEXT LOW WILL BRING WINDS UP DRAMATICALLY
WEST OF 160W...WITH THE USUAL SUPER-GRADIENT FLOW AT CAPE
LISBURE. HENCE HIGH WIND WATCH ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.

FOR THE WEST COAST...RAIN/BREEZES TODAY FOLLOWED BY A SHORT
LULL..THEN WINDIER WITH MORE RAIN AS 990 MB LOW CUTS NWD THRU
EASTERN CHUKOTKA. THE RAPIDLY BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP
THE WESTERNMOST INTERIOR ZONES DRY AFTER TONIGHT. MORE MOISTURE
MOVING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING MORE
RAIN W OF 165W SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

FOR THE INTERIOR...SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE FIRST TROUGH. RAINFALL EAST OF 150W WILL BE OF LIMITED
DURATION...THOUGH OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE
A DECENT SOAKING. FARTHER WEST...THE BEST RAINFALL WILL BE IN
WEST OF BETTLES. THIS IS THE ONLY PART OF THE INTERIOR WITH ANY
REAL CHANCE OF RAIN FROM THE SECOND TROUGH. OTHERWISE SUNDAY
WILL BE A TRANSITION TO THE HOT AND DUSTY REGIME. NOTE THAT RECORD
HIGH TEMPS ARE A REAL POSSIBLY TUESDAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...
AT LEAST EAST OF 155W.

.HYDRO...NONE
.FIRE WEATHER...NONE IN THE SHORT TERM. HOT AND DRY WEATHER
NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR FIRES.

.AFG WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG 202. HIGH WIND WATCH SAT-SAT NIGHT ZONE 201
CAPE LISBURNE LAND.
MARINE...GALE 210. SCA 220

RT AUG 05