Small Craft Advisory 165, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
240 PM ADT THU OCT 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR THROUGH 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PUSHING UP FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO CENTRAL ALASKA. THIS IS
PRODUCING DECENT DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND INTO
THE TANANA VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES HEATING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE 850 TEMPERATURE SITS NEAR ZERO DEGREES
CELSIUS IN THE TANANA VALLEY.

MEANWHILE A LOW POSITIONED ON THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST RUNNING NORTH
SOUTH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE
HAS ALREADY DUMPED 1.08 INCHES OF RAIN IN KALTAG THROUGH 10 AM
THIS MORNING. IT CONTINUES TO RAIN IN KALTAG AND LOCATIONS ALONG
THE WEST COAST ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS
RANGE. A CLEARLY DEFINED INTENSE WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED ALL THE WAY
TO THE ARCTIC COAST WHICH HAS WARMED PLACES IN THE BROOKS RANGE TO
THE UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES ON THE ARCTIC COAST ARE CONTINUING TO
WARM WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT.

TRUE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL LOSE ITS STRAIGHT
SOUTHERLY ORIENTED FLOW BY 12Z TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP SOME. MEANWHILE THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE WEST COAST JUST EAST OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF ZONE 213. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTWARD.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE BERING SEA LOW
WILL MOVE TO NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. IT WILL THEN SPREAD SNOW
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE AREA FROM KALTAG NORTHWARD TO THE BROOKS RANGE WILL
SEE DECENT PRECIPITATION FALLS HERE. HOWEVER..THE PRECIPITATION
THAT WILL FALL SHOULD BE SNOW OVER THIS WAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE AS THE COLDER AIR INFILTRATES BACK IN TO THAT AREA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.
&&

CF OCT 05