Small Craft Advisory 147, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
600 AM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LOW AT 500 MB IS NUDGING WESTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST
TODAY. FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TREKKING NORTH TODAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALASKA AND THE YUKON...A LITTLE RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE LOW OVER
THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE...LEFTOVER OCCLUSIONS ARE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BEFORE THEY CAN AFFECT
WEATHER OUT WEST. SURFACE LOW OF 990 MB WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE
YUKON DELTA MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY LAUNCH NORTHWEST INTO NORTON
SOUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OCCLUSIONS FROM A 980 MB LOW POISED TO
MOVE ASHORE AROUND YAKUTAT ON WEDNESDAY WILL AFFECT THE
SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR. GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE
ARCTIC COAST AND THE NORTHERN INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN BEGIN TO RELAX.

THE INTERIOR...MOIST PACIFIC AIR OVERRUNNING THE COLDER POLAR AIR
MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL YIELD LIGHT SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION SHOULD FALL.  TUESDAY WILL BRING SOME CLEARING
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK RIDGING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SNOW FOR SOME PARTS OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR.

THE ARCTIC COAST AND NORTH SLOPE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE ARCTIC HIGH AND THE LOW NOW LIFTING NORTH IN THE YUKON
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STIFF WINDS ACROSS THE ARCTIC
WATERS...SO MUCH SO THAT GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. AS LOW
WEAKENS INLAND...GRADIENTS WILL RELAX BY TUESDAY
MORNING...LESSENING WINDS AS THEY DO SO. COASTAL FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ONSHORE AT POINTS EAST OF WAINWRIGHT.

THE WEST COAST...THE POLAR AIR MASS HAS NOW ENVELOPED ALL BUT
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE EAST WILL
SEND FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
TODAY. STRENGTHENING LOW ALOFT WILL INDUCE THE FORMATION OF A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF THE YUKON DELTA MONDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT
COULD BE A DECENT SHOT OF SNOWFLAKES AROUND NORTON SOUND BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COULD NOME SEE ITS FIRST FLAKE OF THE
SEASON? NOW...WE SHALL CALL IT 50/50. ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS SHOULD
BE SHOWERY IN NATURE...AND ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
NOME RADAR ALREADY SHOWING SOME EARLY SIGNS OF INSTABILITY WITH A
FEW BLIPS OF ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RODNEY. REVOLVING
SHORTWAVES WILL OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE A SNOWSHOWER IN THE WESTERN
INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION WHITE...EXCEPT FAR AT SEA AND ON THE ISLAND.

THE EXTENDED...TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK KEEPING THINGS ON THE CHILLY SIDE. WELL ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH. SHORTWAVE CLIPPER WILL SWING SOUTH
FROM THE ARCTIC AND WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH SLOPE AND THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AFG WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...
MARINE...GALE WARNING.............225...230...240
         FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...230...235...240...245
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.....235...245

JWA OCT 05