Small Craft Advisory 134, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
300 PM ADT WED SEP 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT 500 MB COVERS THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH IS NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST WITH A 525 DM LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND A
527 DM LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE AT 500 MB EXTENDS
FROM WRANGEL ISLAND NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MOVING EACH OF THE MAIN FEATURES SOUTH AND
WEST THROUGH THE NEXT 60 HOURS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A 519 DM LOW
WILL BE NEAR UNALAKLEET AND THE HIGH ALOFT WILL HAVE MOVED INTO
SIBERIA. WEAK SPOKES OF VORTICITY WILL ROUND THE UPPER LOW KEEPING
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW UNDER THE 500 MB TROUGH IS AT 976
MB NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. ADDITIONAL WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE OVER THE
YUKON DELTA AND THE YUKON TERRITORY OF CANADA. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
LIES ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. THE GULF
OF ALASKA LOW WILL STAY PUT INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE WEAKENING. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE 995 MB NEAR SEWARD.
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE STATE WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR
THE ARCTIC FRONT AND UNDER VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW.

INTERIOR...DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SET UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR FROM
CIRCLE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. THE EFFECT OF THE LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUE TO BE MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE ALASKA RANGE ZONES HAVE BEEN DRY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER ZONES NORTHERN 224...SOUTHERN 220...222 AND
221. THE SNOW LEVEL HAS BEEN NEAR 1500 FEET WITH REPORTS UP TO 1
INCH ALONG THE PARKS HIGHWAY WEST OF FAIRBANKS. VERY WET
SNOWFLAKES HAVE MIXED IN THE RAIN AT VALLEY LEVEL WITH NO PROBLEMS
EXPECTED. WITH A GENERAL TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT WITH WET SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 20S.

ARCTIC COAST...MOST OF THE ACTION IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ARCTIC SLOPE TODAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC OCEAN
COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH HAS RESULTED IN BRISK TO
STRONG EAST WINDS TODAY. WIND HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO 40 MPH AT
DEADHORSE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN BRISK THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOG AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT WILL RESULT IN ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

WEST COAST...CLOUDS AND FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE YUKON DELTA TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWEST OVER THE REGION. OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WEST COAST...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIER AS
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH.

.AFG WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
         THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
           PKZ210
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
            PKZ220
         GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
            PKZ225
         GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
         THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
            PKZ230...PKZ235...PKZ240

AT SEP 05