Small Craft Advisory 104, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
230 PM ADT FRI SEP 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER
THE BERING AND A RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA WILL PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN
NEXT WEEK CAUSING MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.

THE FIRST STRONG SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE IS NOW
IN NORTON SOUND AND WILL MOVE OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND DISSIPATE NEAR POINT HOPE SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
NOW FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA TO PAKN WILL MOVE TO
PAPO-PAKP-PAFA-PAVD BY 12Z SAT...AND PAPO-CYOC-PAOR SATURDAY.
EXPECT EAST WINDS OF 20-30KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG COASTAL
AREAS. RAIN ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE GREATER THAN 1/2 INCH IN
UPSLOPE AREAS AND LESSER IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SOUTH CHINOOK
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE ALASKA RANGE ARE NOW
CAUSING WIND ADVISORIES THERE ALONG WITH A RAIN SHADOW.
CHINOOK WINDS WILL END AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST TONIGHT
AND SPREADS RAIN INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR.

THE SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW NEAR PASY CONTAINS THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD TYPHOON. THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA SATURDAY PM AND THE NORTHERN BERING SUN.
ANOTHER ROUND OF .50 OR MORE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE WEST COAST SUN AND MON ALONG WITH GALE FORCE WINDS.
MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW ON PRECIP ESTIMATES AS THEY USUALLY
ARE WITH EX-TYPHOONS. STORM SURGE BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO WEST COAST LATE SUN BUT HIGHEST SURGE
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF PACZ.

MODELS INITIALIZE WELL ON MOST FIELDS AND SHOW
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 60HRS. THE EXCEPTION IS AT THE
SURFACE WHERE THE BERING SEA LOW AT 18Z WAS 5 MB DEEPER THAN
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS CAUSES THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO WEAKEN
THE SURFACE LOW TOO QUICKLY AND RESULTS IN MODELS WINDS 5 KTS
TOO WEAK THROUGH 12Z SAT.

.HYDRO...NONE

.AFG WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT 223 225 AND 226.
MARINE...SCA THROUGH SATURDAY 230 235 240 245.

JB SEP 05