Gale Warning 99, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK52 PAFG 162243
CWFWCZ

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
143 PM AST WED NOV 16 2005

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-171345-
143 PM AST WED NOV 16 2005

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 984 MB LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL WEAKEN TO 990 MB AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST TO BE OVER NORTHERN COOK INLET THU AFTERNOON. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND
OVER THE ARCTIC SLOPE WILL BOTH PERSIST.

$$

PKZ200-171345-
NORTON SOUND-
143 PM AST WED NOV 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-171345-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
143 PM AST WED NOV 16 2005

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WINDS 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WINDS 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-171345-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
143 PM AST WED NOV 16 2005

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-171345-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
143 PM AST WED NOV 16 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

TF/DJH NOV 05

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
223 PM AST TUE NOV 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
PATTERN CHANGE WELL UNDERWAY FOR NORTHERN ALASKA AS UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE PROCESS OF RETROGRADING A BIT. ALL MODELS AGREE
THAT THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ALONG 160-165W BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT MODERATION IN TEMPS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW LIKELY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY.

AS USUALLY HAPPENS DURING LONG-WAVE RETROGRESSION...MODELS HAVING
NON-TRIVIAL PROBLEMS..WITH CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN AND INTER-MODEL
DIFFERENCES. NO WAY TO PICK A WINNER AT THIS REMOVE..THO PER NCEP
MID-RANGE DISCUSSION...ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AS GOOD A CHOICE AS ANY
IN THIS SCENARIO.

NORTH SLOPE...LESS CHANGES HERE THAN FARTHER SOUTH AS AREA LARGELY
REMAINS DOMINATED BY POLAR CIRCULATION. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL WITH MINIMAL PRECIP.

FOR THE WEST COAST...SERIES OF STORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF/NORTH
PACIFIC WILL REALLY INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. NO MUCH SNOW THOUGH EXCEPT SNOW SHOWERS IN ONSHORE FLOW
AREAS. LACK OF FRESH SNOW COVER WILL MAKE ANY GROUND BLIZ EVENTS
EXTREMELY LOCALIZED. TEMPS REMAINING CHILLY.

FOR THE INTERIOR...BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW IN MANY AREAS IN MORE THAN
TWO WEEKS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NOW IN PLACE WILL BRING A SERIES
OF HAS-BEEN FRONTS NORTH AND EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
BY THE WEEKEND THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD HAVE RETREATED NORTHWARD AWAY
FROM THE ALASKA RANGE...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICALLY LIKELY POSITION
ALONG ABOUT THE YUKON RIVER A GOOD GUESS FOR ARCTIC FRONT POSITION
BY SAT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO HIGH ANYWHERE AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH DYNAMICS WITH EACH THRU FAIRLY RAPIDLY. WINDS
INCREASING AGAIN IN MANY AREAS...WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN A POTENTIAL PROBLEM.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200.
&&

RT NOV 05