Gale Warning 116, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
402 AM AST THU DEC 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THEY
DIVERGE JUST A BIT. BOTH MODELS TAKE THE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
POISED IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND SEND IT NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT..THE ETA TAKES THE
LOW AND FILLS IT FAIRLY RAPIDLY AND MOVES IT TO NEAR GALENA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE GFS ESTABLISHES THE LOW IN NORTON
SOUND DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME AND KEEPS THE LOW A LITTLE DEEPER.

BOTH MODELS DO SEND A LITTLE SHOT OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW
INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE STATE BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING.

THE LOW RUNNING UP NORTHWARD INTO THE INTERIOR IS BEING GUIDED BY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS BRINGING ITS AXIS TO A MORE NORTH
AND SOUTH ORIENTATION. THIS WILL USHER IN THE MUCH STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL CHINOOK OUT THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE AND ALLOW CERTAIN PLACES SUCH AS DENALI PARK AND
THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE TO SEE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS AND MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
WARM AIR. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL ON
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE TO BE SEEN.

THE WARM AIR WILL STICK AROUND A FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 10 DAYS. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD AND
INUNDATE SOUTHWEST ALASKA. MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR IS PRESENT
NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ209-AKZ217-AKZ219.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ218.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CF DEC 05