Alert archive / Alaska / Flash Flood Warnings in 2005

Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Fairbanks, AK

July 3, 2005

NWS Fairbanks, AK issued this flash flood warning at Jul 3, 2005, 5:50 PM AKDT. It was in force for 10 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 3, 2005, 5:50 PM AKDT (01:50 UTC)
Expired: Jul 3, 2005, 6:00 PM AKDT
In force: 10 min
Issued by: NWS Fairbanks, AK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Fairbanks, (PFAI), launched 00:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 207 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 66 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -7 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1698 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 35 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 39 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGAK59 PAFG 040704
FFWAFG
AKZ224-041245-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1050 PM ADT SUN JUL 3 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AREA OF ALASKA

* UNTIL 500 AM ADT MONDAY

* AT 1046 PM ADT...HEAVY RAIN WAS REPORTED IN AN AREA
  ALONG AND 10 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF HEALY LAKE TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HEALY
  LAKE. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OCCURRING OR IMMINENT ON
  SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THIS AREA.

* HEAVY SHOWERS PRODUCING THE FLOODING WILL REMAIN OVER
  THIS AREA FOR ANOTHER ONE TO TWO HOURS. EIGHT TENTHS OF
  AN INCH FELL AT TEE LAKE BETWEEN 7 PM AND 10 PM.
  UP TO A HALF INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED
  IN THE WARNED AREA DURING THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE
YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME
KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR 
CREEKS. WATER LEVELS ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY RISE RAPIDLY
WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 6427 14399 6407 14461 6360 14385 6377 14325

$$

RF JUL 05

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 3, 9:30 AM AKDT, 8 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 3, 9:30 AM AKDT, 8 hours 20 minutes before

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
230 PM ADT SUN JUL 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...THE ETA AND GFS FORECASTS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT TODAY...THOUGH THE ETA DEEPENS THE TROUGH ALOFT OVER
NORTHEAST ALASKA MORE THAN THE GFS BY TUESDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST THIS FEATURE TOO STRONGLY ON A
CONSISTENT BASIS SO THE GFS LOOKS BETTER IN THIS REGARD. IN ANY
CASE...THE WESTERLIES OVER THE SOUTH CHUKCHI SEAS ARE PICKING
UP.

THE MESO ETA MODEL HAS A SURFACE LOW NEAR BARROW AT 10 PM ADT
TUESDAY EVENING WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE DEFINITION THAT THE
OTHER MODELS AND IT MAY WELL BE CORRECT. THE MESO ETA SURFACE
WINDS TUEDSAY EVENING ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST FROM POINT HOPE TO
WAINWRIGHT ARE SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 KNOTS. DUE TO THE LINGERING
ICE COVER IN THE CHUKCHI AND THE FAIRLY NARROW AREA OF OPEN WATER
FROM ICY CAPE TO NORTH OF BARROW (ONLY 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES
WIDE) SURF DOES NOT YET LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE A PROBLEM. BUT
THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT CHANGE FROM THE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER
THAT HAS PREVAILED UP THERE FOR SOME TIME.

THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY BECOME A
LITTLE COOLER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BRING IN MARITIME AND MODIFIED
MARITIME AIR. WESTERN ALASKA REMAINS UNCHARACTERISTICALLY DRY.
FOLLOWING THIS WESTERLY STABILIZATION...THE GFS AND ECMWF MIDDLE
RANGE FORECASTS SHOW THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER WEST CANADA REBUILDING
OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND...SUGGESTING TO NO ONES SURPRISE THAT
SUMMER AINT OVER YET.

.HYDRO...QUIET. RAINS HAVE DIMINISHED. GLACIAL MELT HAS TANANA
RIVER ROLLING ALONG PRETTY FAST...BUT WITHIN ITS BANKS.
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSHOWERS...MOSTLY
WET. NO STRONG WINDS.

.AFG WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT AREAS 210 AND 220.

TF JUL 05

The office that day

Everything else NWS Fairbanks, AK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 3, 9:24 PM AKDT	Flash Flood Warning	AFG		6 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Alaska, 2005 Every flash flood warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.