Brisk Wind Advisory 81, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
230 PM AST MON MAR 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVING THROUGH INTERIOR AHEAD OF HUGE
FRONT KNOCKING ON THE WEST COAST DOOR PRESENTLY. THIS IS A RATHER
SLOW MOVING FRONT ONCE IT GETS TO THE WEST COAST. IT HAS A HUGE
FETCH FROM WARMER WATER WHICH SPELLS VERY GOOD MOISTURE FOR MUCH
OF THE WEST COAST AND THE UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND NULATO HILLS AREAS. THIS FRONT IS
ADVERTISED TO NOT ACTUALLY REALLY MOVE INLAND TILL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY THAN AS ADVERTISED ON PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
THIS MEANS A SHUNT ON THE MOISTURE IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND
ACTUALLY A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES. STILL LOOKS LIKE THAT THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR MAY PICK UP SOME MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH
BUT THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL DO FAIRLY WELL
WITH MOISTURE ON THIS STORM. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT TRYING TO
SELL LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF
THE BROOKS...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
ENHANCED DUE TO UPSLOPE.

ARCTIC COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. MAYBE
SOME FLURRIES BU NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXCEPT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

WEST COAST...WILD AND FURIOUS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. STRONG
WINDS...SNOW...RAIN ARE GOING TO BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT 18 TO 24
HOURS. AFTER THAT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF A LITTLE MORE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH.

INTERIOR...WARM WEATHER AND INSIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR. HOWEVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR IS GOING TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE SNOW FALL WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINCE ITS
FETCH IS VERY WARM AND MOIST.

.AFG WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING...201...208...214...217. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...202.
MARINE...GALE...9A...9B...10...10B...11A. BRISK WIND
ADVISORY...11B.

CF MAR 05