Brisk Wind Advisory 7, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
230 PM AST WED JAN 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA UNDER A BRISK W-LY FLOW ALOFT. A RATHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS W-LY FLOW HAS BROUGHT 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW TO MANY AREAS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE,
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. A DEEP LOW CENTER THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY
E-WARD ACROSS THE HIGH ARCTIC IS BRINGING STRONG W-LY WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW TO THE ARCTIC COAST. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE VERY MILD
OVER ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA WITH 20F OR HIGHER TEMPS BEING
REPORTED OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.

SHORT-RANGE MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW
MOVING OVER INTERIOR ALASKA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST INTO CANADA
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW TO END OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-WARD ACROSS
WESTERN ALASKA TONIGHT AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
ON THU AS A WARM FRONT MOVES E-WARD ACROSS THE STATE. WEAKER
DYNAMICS SHOULD KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOWER THEN HAS BEEN PRODUCED
BY THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE. THIS WARM FRONT MARKS TO LEADING EDGE OF
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD N-WARD
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD AS HIGH
AS 585 MB, WHICH MAY VERY WELL BE A RECORD FOR JAN. IN SPITE OF
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AND THU OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR, THE EXTREMELY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 20S
AND 30S OVER THE REGION.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL
PRODUCE VERY STRONG S-LY TO SW-LY WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ENOUGH BY
THU AFTERNOON TO END ANY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THAT MAY BE OCCURRING
OVER THE REGION. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE BY THU AFT
AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME COOLING OF TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS, BUT VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO THE LEVELS THAT THE ETA ARE
FORECASTING.

THE WEATHER FOR FRI AND SAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WARM OVER
ALL OF MAINLAND ALASKA WITH STRONG W-LY WINDS AND SNOW CONTINUING
OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LONG-RANGE MODELS
ARE NOW COMING INTO MORE INTO AGREEMENT IN THE IDEA OF A COOLING
TREND FROM SUN ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY SE-WARD OVER THE STATE, PUSHING TO VERY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTH. THE GFS IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
OF THE TWO MODELS IN THE COOLING TREND. IT IS PUSHING 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES BELOW 500 DB OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY SUN WHILE
THE ECMWF KEEPS THEM IN THE 520 DM RANGE. WE WILL LEAVE THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ALONE FOR NOW.

.AFG WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WRNG 201...205...206 THU AND THU
NIGHT...207...208 LATE TONIGHT AND THU. WINTER STORM WRNG ABOVE
TREELINE 219...220...221 THU. HEAVY SNOW WRNG 225 TONIGHT. WINTER
WEATHER ADVY 203 AND 204 TONIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVY 214 TONIGHT.
MARINE...STORM WRNG TONIGHT 10B...THU 10A AND 11A. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WRNG 9B TONIGHT. GALE WRNG TONIGHT
10A...10B...11A...TONIGHT/THU 9B. GALE WRNG THU 11B.

MP JAN 05