Brisk Wind Advisory 46, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
230 PM AST FRI FEB 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...
RAPID CHANGES COMING TO NORTHERN ALASKA WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND
AS COLD AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE SPLITS...WITH SOME HEADED SOUTHEAST
INTO BC WHILE THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR RETROGRADES INTO EASTERN
SIBERIA. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG ABOUT 160W LATER
TONIGHT...WITH RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE ALASKA-YUKON BORDER BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MODELS...NOT SURPRISINGLY...SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT ALL
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION. WE TEND TO FAVOR THE
GFS WITH ITS DEEPER...BETTER ORGANIZED LOWS IN THE BERING SEA
IN THE SHORT TERM. BY LATE SUNDAY MODELS BECOME MORE DIVERGENT
IN THE BERING SEA THOUGH NO RATIONALE FOR ONE OR THE OTHER.

FOR THE NORTH SLOPE...TREND WILL BE FOR COOLER WEATHER IN THE
SHORT TERM THOUGH BY MONDAY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AS PRESSURES
FALL OVER SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE.

FOR THE WEST COAST...OCCLUSION MOVING NORTH SEEMS SET TO BRING
ADVISORY/WARNING LEVEL WEATHER TO MOST COASTAL ZONES STARTING
SATURDAY BUT WITH MOST OF THE HEAVY WEATHER ON SEWARD PEN/NW
ALASKA COMING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR THE INTERIOR...MAJOR FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM IS
CLOUDS...OR LACK THEREOF. WITH AIRMASS BEING FAIRLY COLD...VALLEY
TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY FALL WHEN AND WHERE SKIES CLEAR. CLEARING
WILL BE FAIRLY RAPID ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS. WARMING
WILL OCCUR IN ERNEST WEST OF THE RIDGE ALOFT AXIS.

.AFG WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WS WATCH ZONES 207 THRU 214.
MARINE...GALE 9A..9B..10B. BWA 10A.

RT FEB 05

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