Brisk Wind Advisory 166, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
218 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...PATTERN CHANGE OVER AK APPEARS TO BE IN PROGRESS.
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF JET STARTING TO LIFT LITTLE FURTHER N AS RIDGING
AMPLIFIES ALONG PACIFIC W COAST. DEEP PERSISTENT NET TROUGH N OF
BROOKS RANGE WILL PHASE WITH SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MOVING NE FROM
ALEUTIANS/WRN GULF AK NEXT FEW DAYS. EVENTUALLY...BY WED NIGHT/
THU...MODELS BRING A SHORT-WAVE FURTHER BACK W AND N OVER CENTRAL
AND ERN INTERIOR. THIS WOULD LIFT N AND INVIGORATE ARCTIC FRONT
AND ADD CONSIDERABLE OVER-RUNNING MOISTURE TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW EVENT FOR CENTRAL/ERN INTERIOR BEGINNING WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY
CONTINUING INTO FRI AND SAT.

SOME DISCREPENCIES BETWEEN GFS AND ETA/ECMWF IN EVOLUTION OF THIS
PATTERN ON 12Z RUNS. GFS SHOWING SSW CHINOOK FLOW MOVING FURTHER
N INTO INTERIOR THU/FRI WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS...10-15C WARMER AT
850MB THAN OTHER MODELS. WILL SHY AWAY FROM GFS...AS THIS IS AN
OUTLYING SOLUTION FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE OTHER MODELS.

N SLOPE: SHORT-WAVE WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING WRN ARCTIC
COAST CURRENTLY...THIS WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE SLOPE TONIGHT AND
REACH YUKON BORDER TUE AFTERNOON. SOME -SN WITH THIS FEATURE AND
COOLING BEHIND. COOL NWRLY CYCLONIC FLOW WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK
SHORT-WAVES WED ON THROUGH THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE FLURRIES AND
PERIODS OF -SN WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS. AND OCCASIONAL BRISK
W-NW WINDS.

W COAST: N SLOPE SHORT-WAVE BRINGING SOME -SN AS FAR AS S AS
PAOM/PAGL TODAY...WILL SEE STRENGTHENING NRLY FLOW BEHIND AND
SOME CAA. DRY TUE/WED ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR OCEAN-EFFECT FLURRIES
ST. LAWRENCE ISLE...ETC. ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE LATE WED/THU IN NRLY
FLOW COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD -SN THEN.

INTERIOR: DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR WITH STRONG SHARP VALLEY INVERSIONS
THROUGH TUE UNDER LIGHT DRY FLOW ALOFT. AS N SLOPE TROUGH DIGS S
AND A SHORT-WAVE LIFTS NE FROM GULF AK LATE TUE...WILL SEE OVER-
RUNNING MOISTURE BRING -SN TO FAR ERN INTERIOR. STRONGER SHORT-WAVE
AND SURFACE LOW LIFTING NE LATE WED/THU WILL INCREASE NERLY SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS THEN AND BRING COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NE AND
FIRM UP THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH FORECASTED COPIOUS
MOISTURE BAND WITH THE LOW COULD BRING GENEROUS OVER-RUNNING SNOW
EVENT FROM ABOUT PAMH-PAFA-PAEG AND POINTS S AND E WED NIGHT AND
THU...POSSIBLY LONGER.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

MAR NOV 05