Storm Warning 222, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 011207
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST THU DEC 1 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM A 1033 MB HIGH 300 NM SOUTH
OF COLD BAY ACROSS THE BERING SEA INTO THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 990 MB LOW 
300 NM SW OF KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ150-020300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST THU DEC 1 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT WITH STRONGER GUSTS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-020300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST THU DEC 1 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-020300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST THU DEC 1 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-020300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST THU DEC 1 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-020300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST THU DEC 1 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-020300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST THU DEC 1 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRI...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-020300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST THU DEC 1 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-020300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST THU DEC 1 2005

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-020300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST THU DEC 1 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRI...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT PACIFIC SIDE. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-020300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST THU DEC 1 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRI...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT PACIFIC SIDE. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-020300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST THU DEC 1 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-020300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST THU DEC 1 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST WED NOV 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...
A MAJOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC ACROSS THE
BERING SEA INTO THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST. A MAJOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE ALASKA MAINLAND IS ANCHORED BY THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN
ARCTIC. WE EXPECT THE UPPER TROUGH TO DIG INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS A
UPPER LOW FORMS OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THU NIGHT. THIS WILL
ERODE AT THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING
SEA. AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE HIGH SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST WITH
A WEAKER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR
WHILE A LOW LEVEL COLD POCKET MOVES SOUTH FROM THE BERING STRAIT
ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST AND STALLING OVER BRISTOL BAY COINCIDENT
TO THE UPPER LOW PARKING OVER THAT REGION.

IN THE EAST...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH LOCALIZED PATCHY DENSE FOG
WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
AND SUSITNA VALLEY AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WE MAY SEE BREAKS IN THE
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVER OVER THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE INVERTED TROUGH FROM
THE LOW OFF QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLAND TO THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT
INTENSIFIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS IS
INCREASED NORTH WIND ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE INCREASE IN THE
INVERSION LAYER HEIGHT HAS ALLOWED MORE MIXING NEAR THE GROUND TO
OCCUR. THE INVERSION LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND THUS THE FOG
WILL NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT A PROBLEM. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AS THE LOW REMAINS OVER THAT
REGION. ALSO EXPECT THE MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND TO PERSIST ACROSS
KODIAK ISLAND.

OUT WEST...MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS
TRANSITING ACROSS THE THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. NORTHWEST FLOW
OFF THE BERING SEA INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA IS RESULTING IS LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION, BUT MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
KILBUCK MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE ALSO OCCURRING
INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS
INCREASED TEMPERATURES AS THE RADIATION COOLING HAS BEEN MITIGATED BY
THE CLOUD COVER.

THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
THIS WILL HOLD THE GRADIENT OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND LOW AND EXPECT THE EAST WIND TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS
WITH INCREASING WIND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
AND WESTERN BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 176 410
         GALE 130 132 175
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130
FIRE WEATHER...DONE

SAM NOV 05