Small Craft Advisory 968, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 220647 AAD
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
945 PM AST MON NOV 21 2005

UPDATED ZONE 125

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE NEAR CAPE SUCKLING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE GULF TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF ON TUE AFTERNOON WITH A 972 MB CENTER MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR CAPE SUCKLING EARLY WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-221500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST MON NOV 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NORTHWEST WIND 25 KTS. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-221500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST MON NOV 21 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-221500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
945 PM AST MON NOV 21 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. WESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF
PASSAGE CANAL.  SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 20 AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-221500-
PASSAGE CANAL
935 PM AST MON NOV 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-221500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST MON NOV 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-221500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST MON NOV 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-221500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
930 PM AST MON NOV 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-221500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST MON NOV 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-221500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST MON NOV 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 221223
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-230300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
AN APPROACHING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL ENTER THE GULF AT 970 MB 400 NM
SE OF KODIAK TUESDAY THEN MAINTAIN STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES INLAND
NEAR VALDEZ BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL ENTER THE EASTERN
GULF AT 970 MB EARLY THU MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-230300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...WEST WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-230300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-230300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-230300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-230300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-230300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-230300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-230300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-230300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1230 PM AST MON NOV 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF THIS MORNING IS VERY
DIFFICULT. THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF ANY SURFACE LOW IS OBSCURED BY
HIGHER CLOUDS AND PAIH RADAR SHOWS A BROAD MASS OF PRECIPITATION FROM
MIDDLETON ISLAND INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. BUOY 46082 IS SHOWING
STRONG EAST WIND AND THE LOWEST PRESSURE WHICH DEMONSTRATES THAT THE
CENTER IS TO THE WEST OF THE BUOY AND ALL OTHER MARINE OBS SHOW
NORTHWEST WIND. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS ARE DRIER AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS BUT PESKY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE SW COAST. SNOW
SHOWERS ARE THE RULE IN THE BERING SEA IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FETCH THAT PERSISTS THERE THIS MORNING.

THERE IS TOTAL CHAOS IN THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK
AND DEPTH OF GULF SURFACE LOWS. BY 00Z WED (+36 HOURS) THE FORECAST
OF THE DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF IS HANDLED QUITE
DIFFERENTLY ON EACH AND EVERY MODEL. THE NCEP GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SUCH
A SPREAD IN THE GULF AT A MERE 36-HOURS THAT IT IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL. WE WILL CROSS OUR FINGERS AND
HOPE THAT THE 12Z GFS IS USABLE BUT WILL TEMPER THE MARINE WINDS WITH
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WHILE KEEPING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
TO THE EAST.

AGAIN...OUT WEST LOOK FOR PERSISTENCE AS THE HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY
WEST OF SHEMYA WHILE LOWS MOVE SOMEWHERE INTO THE GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY 141.
MARINE...HVY FRZ SPRAY 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JC NOV 05