Small Craft Advisory 955, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1130 AM AST SAT NOV 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO SW ALASKA FROM A MAJOR UPPER LOW OVER
BANKS ISLAND. 500 MB TEMPS AREA AS COLD AS -40C IN THIS SYSTEM AS PER
THE 12Z PASN RAOB. THIS SUPPORTS A 972 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR ANCHORAGE
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS IS SUPPORTED
ALOFT BY A CONTINUOUS JET AT 250 MB FROM SOUTHERN ASIA INTO THE
YUKON. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 44N 161W AROUND 993 MB AS PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHIP OBS.

ALL 12Z MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITIONS AND
TRACKS OF LOWS THROUGH 60 HOURS. TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE THAT THE GFS
FORECASTS THE STORM 5 TO 10 MB DEEPER JUST OFF KODIAK CITY SUN NIGHT.
THE OTHER DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE UKMET DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW ON
THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY. IT IS EASY TO
ACCEPT A TRACK ON THE MAIN SURFACE LOW THAT IS SIMILAR TO THIS LAST
SYSTEM THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH. THE WEST DOMAIN KEEPS A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FETCH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA INTO TUE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM. THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A DEEP LOW NEAR 43N 155-160W 12Z TUESDAY WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING UP INTO THE GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER WX ADV 145. SNOW ADV 141.
MARINE...GALES 120 125 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 179 180 185.
         HVY FRZ SPRAY 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC NOV 05