Small Craft Advisory 952, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST FRI NOV 18 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF CURRENT SYSTEM ONCE IT MOVES INTO
NORTHERN COOK INLET. THE GFS TAKES THE MAIN CORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
WHILE THE ETA AND UKMET LIKE TO MOVE IT TO THE NORTHWEST.  EITHER WAY
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH...SO SHOULD REMAIN
CLOUDY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN
TURNING TO SNOW SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT IN ANCHORAGE AREA.
CONTINUED RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...VALDEZ
ON THE BUBBLE FOR SNOW VERSUS RAIN.

IN THE WEST...NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AT MOST
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN AK. OF NOTE...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION
ADVERTISED IN MODELS LOOKS REALISTIC FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.LIGHT
SNOW TAPPERING OFF SATURDAY...STARTING IN THE SOUTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS PROG. TO BE SOUTH OF COLD BAY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
FOR PAST WEEK...HENCE DETAILS IN DOUBT.  NEVERTHELESS STARTING TO
ADVERTISE THAT A POWERFUL STORM IS HEADED FOR AK PEN.  IF GFS
SOLUTION IS NEAR REALITY...EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER AS PAST 24 HOURS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...SEE CURRENT PACKAGE.
MARINE...SEE CURRENT PACKAGE.

NOV 05