Small Craft Advisory 923, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
125 PM AST WED NOV 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT PATTERN HAS A MILDER SOUTHEAST FLOW IN OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA WHICH HAS BROUGHT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO MOST AREAS. WARMER OCEAN AIR HAS BEEN OVERRUNNING THE ARCTIC
FRONT JUST EAST OF KODIAK. BIG QUESTION IS WEATHER IT WILL SHIFT
WESTWARD ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO RAIN ALONG THE EAST SIDE
OF THE ISLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT I THINK
THE COLD AIR WILL WIN OUT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS STAY WEST
NORTHWEST AND ACTUALLY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE ISLAND, AS THE 975 MB LOW CENTER BEGINS ITS MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SO PADQ AND AREA MAY PICK UP ANOTHER 3 OR MORE
INCHES BY MIDNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE TO
FALL INTO THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.

PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE STRONG WESTERN BERING HIGH AND THE
DEEP LOW IN THEW WESTERN GULF IS GIVING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND SNOW
TO THE PRIBILOFS, ALASKA PENINSULA, EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS
WILL REMAIN OUT FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING, AND POSSIBLY LONGER, SINCE
THE PATTERN IS VERY SLOW TO CHANGE. GULF LOW TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST SO THE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

EVEN ON SATURDAY THE GFS ( MODEL OF THE DAY) KEEPS A STRONG HIGH OUT
WEST AND WEAKER LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF. SO THE SNOW THAT FALLS AT
KODIAK WILL BE AROUND FOR A WHILE AND TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
AK AND THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY DROP AGAIN. THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS/BERING WILL STAY BREEZY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA OUT THERE SUNDAY AND HOLDS FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. ON WED THE
16TH A FRONT MAY BRING GALES BACK TO AREAS WEST OF AMCHITKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING COLD BAY. HIGH WIND WARNING DUTCH HARBOR
AND NIKOLSKI.
MARINE...LOTS OF GALES, SEE MARINE FORECASTS.

PERCY NOV 05