Small Craft Advisory 912, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST MON NOV 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS BEEN PUSHED SOMEWHAT
NORTHWARD BY A JET STREAK THAT MOVED OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA AND WENT
THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS JET STREAK IS NOW DISSIPATING AND
THE COLD TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND BY WEDNESDAY MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE MAINLAND PORTION OF
THE STATE AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. BY WEDNESDAY
THE JET STREAM WILL HAVE A MAXIMUM OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
THEN REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT FLOWS AROUND THE
COLD TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONGEST LOW IS A 975 MB LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF ADAK.
THIS LOW WILL REMAIN AROUND THE SAME STRENGTH AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF
SAND POINT TUESDAY. IT WILL THE STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 965 MB AS IT
MOVES EAST OF KODIAK WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STRONG COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW. THIS IS EXACERBATING THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING
CURRENTLY EFFECT IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS AREA OF WINDS WILL
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS.

MOST INTERESTING AND DIFFICULT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE FOR KODIAK
ISLAND. DETAILS AS TO HOW THE WEATHER FRONT THAT IS EXTENDING FROM
THE ALEUTIAN LOW DEVELOPS SUBSEQUENT LOWS ALONG IT WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER KODIAK GETS A BIT OF PRECIPITATION OR JUST A MARGINAL AMOUNT.
IT WILL ALSO DETERMINE WHETHER WARM AIR CAN SNEAK IN TUESDAY AND MAKE
SOME PRECIPITATION THERE RAIN. THE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL OVER KODIAK
TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE THERMAL
PACKING OVER THE ISLAND SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
IF THE SMALL LOWS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT ARE IN A POSITION TO
INHIBIT THE MOIST AIR FROM GOING OVER THE ISLAND THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNT WILL BE MUCH LESS AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE AN INTERESTING ONE TO
WATCH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 191.
MARINE...SEE CURRENT MARINE FORECASTS.

NOV 05