Small Craft Advisory 901, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST FRI NOV 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 500 MB TEMPERATURE FROM FRIDAY MORNINGS UPPER
AIR SOUNDINGS WERE BETWEEN 35 AND 40 BELOW ZERO FROM ANCHORAGE TO
FAIRBANKS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY DROP SOME MORE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN IS ENTRAINED
INTO THE UPPER TROUGH.
AT THE SURFACE AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR AND ALLOW ANY
DAYTIME HEATING TO RAPIDLY RADIATE OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THEREFORE EXPECT COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD AIR WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE THE WIND SITUATION.
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. A
SURFACE LOW AROUND 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT AROUND
THE GULF OF ALASKA COASTAL AREAS. THE COLD DENSE AIR WILL HELP TO
ACCELERATE THE WINDS COMING THROUGH THESE PASSES. EXAMPLES FROM TODAY
INCLUDE WINDS GUSTING TO 65 MPH IN THE VALDEZ AREA AND A SHIP REPORT
OF NORTHWEST WINDS 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS IN SHELIKOF STRAIT.

IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...A WEAK LOW IN EASTERN RUSSIA WILL
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE YUKON DELTA SATURDAY EVENING. GOOD CHANCE OF SOME
SNOW IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AND PROPAGATE OVER
KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY BEFORE HEADING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AFTER
THAT. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ETA MODELS IN HOW
THEY HANDLE THE LOW AS IS APPROACHES KODIAK. EXPECT THE ETA SOLUTION
TO BE CLOSER TO WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE MARINE PRODUCTS.

NOV 05