Small Craft Advisory 890, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST TUE NOV 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS SIMILAR AND
REASONABLE. ETA SURFACE CENTER OVER NORTHERN GULF IS A LITTLE TOO
INTENSE AND FAR NORTH FIRST 48 HRS...BUT COMES IN LINE BEYOND. 850 MB
COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
(PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST) OVER MAINLAND FORECAST AREAS INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPS OVER SW AK WILL WARM SOME SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE BERING SEA.

SURFACE...
EAST..CAA OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERN GULF LOW FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MEAN POSITION OF CENTER WILL BE NEAR MIDDLETON OR JUST
SE. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE GULF WHICH HAVE RELAXED SOME TODAY
WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE STRONG THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ALTHOUGH GAP WINDS ALONG THE GULF HAVE BEEN BRISK...EXPECT SOME
INTENSIFICATION AS 850 MB FLOW SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MORNING
VISIBLE SAT PIC SHOWS LOW CLOUDS OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT SOUTHCENTRAL AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH THU...BUT SHOULD
END OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THU AS N WINDS INCREASE.

WEST...WEAKENING FRONT OVER SW ALASKA IS DRIFTING NORTH AND
DISSIPATING. SURFACE CENTER MOVING FROM RUSSIAN COAST WILL MOVE INTO
BRISTOL BAY LATE WED AND SOUTH OF THE AK PEN EARLY THU. EXPECT
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRYING CONDITIONS TO SET UP AFTER LOW PASSAGE OVER
MUCH OF SW AK. WK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WED
EVENING AND SHIFTS TO THE SW AK/EAST BERING SEA LATE FRI.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 150 155 170

RMC NOV 05