Small Craft Advisory 884, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST SUN OCT 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR.
A STATIONARY LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER ALASKA AND THE
GULF THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THE COOL DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY OVER THE GULF WILL PROPAGATE EAST AND
GO INLAND OVER CANADA BY LATE TUE.  THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE BERING AND DROP INTO THE LONG WAVE POSITION OVER THE GULF
BY THU.  THE POLAR JET WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WELL SOUTH
OF THE MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEK.

SURFACE.
THE UKMET AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GULF LOW.  THE ETA
INITIALIZED THE LOW TO FAR WEST AND THEN APPEARS TO MOVE IT TOO
QUICKLY ONSHORE AND OVER CANADA.  THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTION KEEPS A
RESIDUAL TROUGH IN THE GULF MORE IN LINE WITH HISTORICAL SEQUENCES.
THE UKMET/GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER GRADIENT TO THE WEST OF THE GULF
LOW WHICH IS PREFERRED OVER THE ETA SOLUTION.  A BAND OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE SOUND AND
KENAI PENINSULA SUN AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT.

A LOW IN THE NORTHWEST BERING WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN BERING THROUGH
THE LONG WAVE RIDGE THEN CROSS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY WED MORNING.  STRONG WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND REACH THE
SOUTHWEST COAST BY LATE MON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 410 179 180 185 170 171 172 155 310
         STORM 410 176 175

RHH OCT 05