Small Craft Advisory 880, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SAT OCT 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE STATE WITH A CUT-OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE
AKPEN THIS MORNING. A BUILDING RIDGE LIES OVER KAMCHATKA AND THE
WESTERN BERING. AT THE SURFACE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS
THE LAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW NEAR
DUTCH HARBOR...A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS...AND ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING ALONG 50N. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WESTERN BERING...WHILE STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS OR SO. THIS SOLUTION
BRINGS THE REMNANT FRONT TO THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND SOME COASTAL PRECIPITATION...CONSOLIDATES THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...WHERE THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT
BRINGS GALES AND STORMS TO THE GULF SUN NIGHT INTO MON. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE NO STRONG DYNAMICS INLAND DURING THIS PERIOD...THE PRESENCE
OF A MID LEVEL LOW MEANS SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER MON THE GFS IS THEN THE PREFERRED SOLUTION
SINCE IT IS SLOWER IN BRINGING THE GULF LOW ACROSS THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS INTO CANADA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF BY
MON NIGHT.

MEANWHILE IN THE WEST...NORTHERLY SMALL CRAFT FLOW DIMINISHES AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS REACHES SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY SUN
NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT FROM THE NEXT KAMCHATKA LOW BEGINS TO BRING
GALES AND STORMS TO THE WESTERN BERING AS EARLY AS SUN AFTERNOON AND
DISSIPATES AS IT REACHES WESTERN ALASKA MON EVENING WITH PRECIP. THE
OVERRUNNING NATURE OVER COLD AIR MEANS THIS COULD BEGIN AS A FREEZING
RAIN EVENT.

IN THE EXTENDED...A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN THE GULF FROM THE
DISSIPATING BERING FRONT TUE...AND BRINGS A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN TO
THE NORTH GULF COAST BEFORE MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE THU. LITTLE
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REACH AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE.

IN THE WEST...THE DISSIPATING BERING FRONT WILL DROP RAIN AND SNOW
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA INTO THU. WEST GALES WILL PERSIST OVER THE
BERING TUE AND WED...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THU.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 172 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS OCT 05