Small Craft Advisory 841, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT THU OCT 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...

AT UPPER LEVELS A ZONAL JET EXTENDS ACROSS KAMCHATKA AND THE CENTRAL
BERING BEFORE DIVING TO 40 N AND THEN CURVING BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH A VERTICALLY
STACKED OCCLUDED LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF KODIAK...AND A LARGE
BLOCKING RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AS FAR NORTH AS
BARTER ISLAND. THE OCCLUDED LOW CONNECTS TO A TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN RUSSIA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT FROM A TIGHTLY WOUND LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK
EXTENDS AROUND AND OVER THE AKPEN AND ENTIRE GULF COAST...AND
SOUTHWEST ALONG 30 N. A WEAK RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND
A FRONT IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN BERING FROM A LOW OFF EASTERN
RUSSIA.

MODELS SEEM TO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z RUN...AT
LEAST THROUGH 60 HOURS. DURING THAT TIME THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK
MOVES ACROSS THE GULF TO SEWARD BY SAT MORNING AND ACROSS THE KENAI
INTO COOK INLET SAT AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS THE FRONT AND BAND OF
STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
WHILE MOVING INLAND BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD
SEWARD...ANOTHER BAND OF WIND WILL REACH THE COAST FRI NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL BE OROGRAPHIC IN
NATURE...FAVORING KODIAK ISLAND...UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA RANGE. MID LEVEL FLOW
IS EAST AT FIRST...SO NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT NORTH
OF THE CHUGACH UNTIL FRI NIGHT AND SAT. AT THIS POINT MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHEAST AND THE TALKEETNAS AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
ALASKA RANGE ARE AFFECTED.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL EXPERIENCE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND
RAIN THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE LOW RACING ACROSS THE BERING WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

MEANWHILE...THE STRONGEST BAND OF NORTHWEST WINDS LIE ACROSS THE
AKPEN AND UNALASKA. WINDS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA WILL PERSIST OVER THESE AREAS TONIGHT...DIMINISHING BRIEFLY
BETWEEN PASSING FRONTS TONIGHT AND FRI AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON ENTERS THE ALEUTIANS SAT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS.

INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
BERING AND A BARELY WEAKENING LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WILL COMBINE TO
KEEP SHOWERY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE AK RANGE AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORM FORCE OR GREATER WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN.
THIS WILL BRING EVEN COLDER AIR TO THE WEST SO SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
THE RULE...WHILE WARM AND WINDY WILL AFFECT THE EAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NPW 181
MARINE...STORMS 120 130 155
         GALES 125 138 140 150 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS OCT 05